The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Globe. I can only offer my opinion. No one really knows. I spent a few years here listening to the enthusiastic posters and dreaming but being 250k in profit on last years high and then watching that dwindle has focused my mind somewhat. I'm still gambling but it's based on knowing the size of other deals against and the probability that it will happen. I don't plan to be here when the binary choice of win/lose comes along. That might not be that ong for 737. Within 2 years, I'd say.
Potnak, in agreement with your more mundane and logical approach. Puts the prospects in the right perspective.
When you think today up 10p on 8.5million shares old money........imagine what will happen when people actually start buying big with not enough stock to go round.
We've not even started yet. imo
Hi Potnak
Sareum seem very keen on a Covid 19 trial for SDC 1801. On your timetable it would have to be done before the end of the year and if successful could greatly enhance any licence deal for 1801. Either that or the licence deal adequately reflects a future Covid trial that could become very successful. Either way the deal must reflect that Covid 19 trial could be successful
Globe. The timelines are somewhere Inbetween, its gonna happen next week and it's gonna happen in 5 years. IMO, well have a licence deal for 1801 by the end of the year and we'll be end of P2 by the end of 2024. That's when the big money will kick in. I still think SRA737 could get us to £5 y just being mentioned and £10 if GSK get an orphan fast track. If that happens then it could be a perfect storm in 2024.
Feet on the ground guys. We have a long long way to achieve that billion market cap and never a clear pathway as there will be hurdles to overcome. Happy to wait some years if it happens.
It may be a crude way of looking at it, but the market cap at which other deals in the sector have been made can be used as a bench mark.
Bill
I wonder why this preoccupation with MCap? ... it's the projected value of the assets that will determine the offer (if any) ... the value of the pipeline for the duration of the patent period ... market volume and value of those products in the market over the same period ... but hey ho what do I know? ... LH&K Mafuta
Billy. Agreed. Once we get a licence deal for 1801 we'll have a better idea of what a buyout might look like. Similar deals have been made that could see us sitting on a billion in milestones and double digit royalties. We will also know the indication we are targeting and the market size for that. X that by 2 because there is no reason to think 1802 is worth less 1801. Then we have a potential figure, If everything goes right. This is where Thoth is coming from. The potential could easily be £12 bn. So what is the risk adjusted valuation? In a buyout scenario, anything less than 1bn would seem under valued. The board need to hold their nerve and so do the shareholders.
Sadly, I'm not sure I ever see multi-billion pound valuations coming through. Its not to do with whether or not the compounds Sareum is progressing fail or succeed. But rather, if one does assume they are going to succeed, I think Sareum will get taken out with an offer as things are on the way up. It thus may well be that there is an inevitable glass ceiling for the share price and valuation. Perhaps similar to the $2BN or so figure tabled for Sierra.
Very happy though if there is a different outcome.
In the short term though, there needs to be some good news from GSK and a good P1 trial outcome, or this will turn into a damp firework.
Bill
Really not long to wait to hear what GSK intend for 737 and then the sp will start its steady march towards our true worth.
The Sierra shareholder vote on accepting the GSK offer will be held on June 29, 2022, at 6pm UK time. You can tune in watch the vote live at www.virtualshareholdermeeting.com/SRRA2022SM
Assuming the vote goes through, they will no doubt tell us when they expect the deal to be formalised.
Looks like we might be in for a pleasant summer....
Is it a sweepstake? I'm going fior £1.7 billion, £25 a share. I'd take less if we could keep some royalties or a share swap?
I think he does SCHeckler - just not broadcasting it. My money still on a collaboration with GSK
The real question is how do you know Miels isn’t thinking the same way? ;+)
Now if we could just get Nina Mojas and Luke Miels to agree with you…..
Thanks CornishTrig for your calcs, and to Lazarus once again.
Agree, until a deal comes we wont go stratospheric. News on SRA737 WILL come, and could come as soon as the takeover is finalised. CTA due soon too for 1801. Both will add value. Chk1 will add much more than CTA. Potential to treat up to 50% of solid tumors.
Sareums potential is far too much to not be on multiple radars. Even at this early stage. NED's coming on board a few years ago, PH sudden appointment. These things dont happen to struggling bios. They happen to protect an assets true worth. Of which we have at least 3. All have the genuine potential to make it in multi billion ££ markets.
Only a matter of time. Been in the industry for 20+ years and never seen potential like this. Ever.
Thanks for the figures and discussion on MCap, Cornish and WIP
Who knows when we might hit each target
Nice one on your purchase BIlly -B.
Let’s hope it’s steadily onwards and upwards now though can’t see the share price equivalent of august 2021 hitting again in August 2022.
May take a bit longer but hopefully we’ll get there and beyond
Hi SCHeckler - missed your comment earlier but it’s anyones guess. It would make sense if they did at these levels - plenty of leeway.
Anyway, easy to adjust the ready reckoner- all good here
Thanks Cornish and WIP - I had considered that but I wanted to outline realistic short term values and allow investors to make their own judgement as to where this might settle after news. Brilliant if we did get valued at over 1bn but, unless there is a deal in the offing I feel that the sp will be pegged at lower levels.
A £2 billion company.......wow, wouldn't that be something?
£2.25 = 153m
£3.00 = 204m
£4.00 = 272m
£4.50 = 306m
£5.00 = 340m
£7.00 = 476m
£10.00 = 680m
£15.00 = 1.02b
£20.00 = 1.36b
£25.00 = 1.70b
£30.00 = 2.04b
Morning Lazarus - Might be worth just adding the values if/when we do become a £Bn company. Given the work that's already gone into the patents and capsule development I'd think its a very high possibility. Maybe add for £1Bn and £2Bn. As you well know, I'm not ramping, its based on similar deals, patents and of course potential earnings from market size.
I was going to start another new thread just to reply to you in order to bump down the detailed findings of many posters, but thought I'd leave that to maidit308.
Couldn't reconcile with my error so here are the correct values:
£2.25 sp = £153m market cap
£3.00 = £204m
£4.00 = £272m
£4.50 = £306m
£5.00 = £340m
£7.00 = £476m
£10.00 = £680m
I feel better now.
So I guess that the question is….
Will any more be issued to really bugger up your ready reckoner? :)
Ah! I did indeed Horse thank you - Apologies to all