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I think thats fair comments thoth and is the angle i would approach the bod with.
When i first invested in sar we had about 600m shares in issue, now we have 5 times that and with a low sp and more regular placings will just acenuate it.
Lets be fair, we are an aim company and thats how they get by so i dont want to be overly critical but its time for the bod to really corcern themselves with how its playing out for us, when the end game is and what its going too look like.
A good solution for all can be found here im sure.
I do hope we get a statement. I'm not sure if the company is in run off mode. Or should be. An insurance term/analogy but relevant.
A. The value add is discovery. That's finished now.
B. Development is all outsourced. Paying director wages for a middle manager job.
C. Licensing success history. Aurora was a fail. Chk1 no involvement in the contract. So no proven track record of commercialation.
Overhead 50% of r&d spend. Industry norms would be 8 to 12 percent. My supposition is that in the absence of revenue g&a overheads should revert to industry norms and be 80% lower than now. Or give a plan. And timescales. But doing a val is not an.option and I would rather put the company into run off zombie mode sooner without a credible plan.
It's not the right kind of news Fadec. I don't get it either.
Its the end of the month next week. Thoth has threatened to open Pandoras box. Let's see what happens. I personally think we'll get a statement from the company.
“Sareum programmes have progressed well since candidate nomination in September 2018, building on the compelling efficacy seen in disease models, the potential for once-daily oral dosing and good early safety profiles.”
And
“Data arising from some of this work are being prepared for submission to a peer-reviewed publication and a conference presentation.”
So herein will be data showing compelling efficacy and good early profiles!
People talk about lack of Data on Tyk2 SDC-1801/1802 so what is the line in the RNS, don’t get it personally, we will have the Data!
“Data arising from some of this work are being prepared for submission to a peer-reviewed publication and a conference presentation.”
I think I have the same views as you and the same timescales but my worry is we get a "didn't meet the primary endpoint" RNS and watch it all disappear. I think it will be worth £200 million before the data is reported.
Also - if SRA737 is as good as you suspect. They will find a backer with the knowledge and resources to see it through.
Do you really want the company to tell us that the TYK2 data is average at best? Why would they do that without testing in the clinic first? Another reason to push for value in the upfront payments at the expense of lower royalties should we get to market.
I don't know if there is an NDA. I hope there is because it will explain a lot. If there isn't an NDA then there is no news other than the stuff we already know. Still not bad news, just longer timescales to cash out time.
Thoth - I share your serious and legitimate concers.
I have an alternate view. SRA737 has a potential route to fast track after P2 in anogenital. They need c $10m for an expanded trial, but also it would trigger 20m of milestones. 6m to us. I think it will happen, but when and with who is uncertain and risky.
Tyk2 looks inherently safe as a class, so am less worried about side effects. Im more worried about the lack of information on progress. If the BOD had delivered consistent shareholder value. I wouldnt worry. If we didnt have the experience of Aurora being parked for 4 years with no updates and no progress I wouldnt worry.
But I dont know if the molecule is not quite good enough, or its excellent. And in the absence of them publishing any progress info I dont know if they are pulling the wool over our eyes and stringing out the salaries. They havent published the preclinical data fully. Why not. Might be an NDA. Might be the data isnt that good. No idea but trust is being eroded
Ahfam. £800 million is probably the most we can hope for. If SRA737 goes into P3 and start killing people. Our share of SRA737 alone will be worth £200 million before it gets approved. You'd have to risk losing the lot to wait for the end of the trial and royalties.
TYK2 could be a much, much bigger market and if we could see it up to the end of P2. I honestly don't think we will get that far and I'm not sure I want the risk either. I'm hoping for a big upfront and low royalties for TYK2. Hoping the value gets nailed on at the expense of future income.
Another also. We'll need sellers when the time comes. The MM's can't push the price up with no volume so Aber might be doing us a favour.
Also, how many AIM companies deliver growth? Its boom or bust, always has been. Get yourself some nice government bonds if you want growth.
Aber - you won't be out at 0.75 and if we got to 2p, you'd stay in because it would mean we've had some really good news. The SP is at least a 10 bagger from here until we get a failure on CHK1. TYK2 will add its own value once we get it into trials. That isn't far away.
Well guys .. as much as this might cause some angry responses ... I WOULD take 2p right now as I would still be quads up and could then day trade on companies who have solid management experience .. this company has disappointed me and delivered only negative growth to my investment for the last 10 years ... I want out with a profit even if it’s just a small one as I do not believe the scientists have the right level of deal making expertise to bring on a deal .. and we may miss the boat EPICALLY ... sorry guys but I am totally out of this share as soon as I break even (0.75p)... bring on the abuse ... but be prepared to defend a BOD who have delivered no positive shareholder growth for 10years
Aber, that's as we have all seen from the finals Rns 50m is not anywhere near the deals that have been mentioned. Tim himself mentioned way back in 2012/3 that 800m upfront siting a certain deal that had taken place I think it may have been Abbvie but not sure.
May take a while as deal making has never been SARS strength
Personally I cannot see why BMS have not come in with a 2p (50 million) offer for SAR as it would remove a competitor for 2YKT and is just a bit of pocket change ... and most shareholders here would probably jump at 2p right now
Something has to give soon .... as the BOD must be doing something in the background as they don’t want to lose their jobs and options
Fingers crossed for some news this year
It’s taking a long time if there is a deal to be done-just saying!
Aye, first rule of an NDA. You don't talk about the NDA.
Thing is that previous RNSes have referred to Sareum being in discussions with licensing partners (plural) and have even outlined what the board perceive to be ballpark figures in terms of relative value. If Sareum are in discussions with licensing partners then I would assume they would be under NDAs as part of those discussions - so hands may genuinely be tied. Any clarity the board could give would obviously be of value - even just a reiteration of several discussions. But I’m not sure how much more they might be able to give us without potentially jeopardising those deals?