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Thank you Chislehurst. I joined the PRD journey only a few months ago, so have some catching up to do share price gain wise. As you say we seem to be at the start of something really good, fingers crossed, and It's a great board here with many knowledgeable contributors.
I'm now based in Bromley so still manage to get along to Chis every now and then, normally for lunch at the Tigers Head or The Bull. Cheers and Good Luck to all holders here.
Hi Goofedagain, correct - lived here all my life. Pubs are great, the still visit Ramblers, Bull, Impy, Sydney and the new micro pub The ****pit. Only 12 miles from London but has escaped the urban sprawl. Apologies for o/t - won't happen again ;-)
Glad you could join us on the PRD thread. We are sitting on the cusp of a truly exciting 6 months. Enjoy the ride!!!
Ah Chislehurst...as in the Kent Chislehurst with all those lovely boozers me and my mates used for so many pub crawls in the seventies and early eighties? Bulls Head, Ramblers Rest, Fox & Hounds (RIP) etc etc? Sorry folks for going O/T but I loved the place in those days. Of course I could be barking up the wrong tree. Put me out of my misery Chislehurst Lol.
Hi Adon30,
I am myself not even an oil&gas guy but you can learn so much on this BB.
It is like a distilled and explained afternoon at the British Library.
I am sure I am not alone in being very grateful to those posters here - and there are several - who contribute so much knowledge, information and insight to this BB.
And where the BB is, for the most part, so civilised and convivial, even when there may be slight disagreements.
I think the good ship PRD is picking up a following wind for home.
Great article Wacky. Thanks for reposting as not seen before. Just wish I understood geology better. A lot of reading to get through.
An interesting note I picked up skimming through was a more recent assesment (think 2005/6) which said that as well as the dry gas at GRF-1 there were also condensates. Could be an extra bonus... Although as you say we are aiming at the heart of the reservoir for gas.
The background information available does significantly de-risk the drill
I am still calling it a single exploratory drill though in my head (as per the market release). It's about setting achievable expectations and meeting those expectations. If they are exceeded.... well then it is time to get excited.
You've got to love this bit "Furthermore, gravity, magnetic and seismic data indicates that the Guercif Basin it is more likely to contain larger structures than those seen in the Rharb Basin". Let's hope we find one of them!!!
Many thanks for your kind words, Nic, Sefton & GRH, all for the greater good.
Adon30.
You put forward a valid point on wait and see for the results on the drill of MOU1.
I would argue the possible follow up wells in quick succession are because of the following factors.
1. The confidence of the BOD that commercial gas will be found.
2. The time and money spent on forward engineering of the asset for quick monetisation.
3. Rig availability.
My view is that Commercial volumes of gas will be found and we in order to have a commanding position in Morocco will have to move quickly to beat all others.
I notice you used the term "exploratory drill", I would beg to differ.
The mud logs and samples from the GRF1 well drilled by ELF in 1972 are the evidence that thermogenic gas is present in the area and most importantly GRF1 well is an offset well drilled to test the outer extremities of the reservoir's, Elf were prospecting for Oil but when Gas was found the well was logged and abandoned.
Where we are drilling is the sweet spot of the combined stacked reservoir's where if Oil had been found, would have been the location for Elf's follow on or appraisal well.
So we are not really exploring, we are drilling the real deal and that is why this prospect has always been tagged as "Drill ready",
I've posted this before but it is a fantastic read and explains why Paul and the BOD are so confident.
http://www.fastnetoilandgas.com/~/media/Files/F/Fastnet-Oil-and-Gas/financial-and-other-reports/cpr-report-pathfinder.pdf
AIMHO of course.
GLA
Wacky
Gather its the top nappe may surprise with SDX Nico otherwise would generally agree with you on the excitement front.
Is interesting though as its if the toppe nappe comes into play on the 2nd drill they'll drill deeper on the third to check it again. Seems to be quite the anomaly for them.
I don't mind if you disagree with me GRH. Someone has to be wrong and if you're choosing to be that person who am I to argue? lol
Does it really matter though whether they do a back to back drill if the first is successful? Certainly won't matter if it dusts but I'd never bring up that thorny subject. lol
Couple of weeks back I noticed that £400k PRD shares had changed hands but only £40k SDX. On that day we both had same market cap of £37m.
Today I see £400k PRD v £10k SDX.
Clearly SDX is not a share that is generating great excitement. Hopefully when doing business together, their shareholders may see better value and massive potential here. I always check out a board when there's a strong business connection with a company I own. I bought BPC for a cheeky £2k punt because of the CERP/FRAM negotiations so expect plenty others do the same.
Morocco has many advantages over Egypt. Proximity to Mainland Europe (Spain) is one. Pipelines and supply to Europe has previously been discussed....
GRH has mentioned many times cost per unit in Morocco for PRD is greater than Egypt or T&T
Extract from December RNS
"Rig available for appraisal and development drilling to seamlessly extend current drilling programme"
"Seek to optimise drilling programme synergies with SDX Energy Plc based on MOU-1 being the first well to be drilled"
With the just released RNS they are confirming the ONE drill to the market with an expected timescale. Why would they put that additional drills will follow when they have not had the first 'exploratory' drill? If they did not happen it would be a backwards step. We do not want that. Let the first happen, see what is there and then there is still time for other things to follow... Who knows where we will be come end of July
GRH,
Great posts, as ever.
The phrase "too good to be true" is often quite useful in navigating one's way through life.
It is frequently borne out, sometimes in painful experience.
It is not always true (I have myself experienced this on three occasions) and the thing turned out to be spectacular - indeed way bigger than those that introduced it to me ever said openly (though, in private, they knew how great it was).
I have been in this stock for a fair while but some others have held longer than me.
From the earliest days - and I was primarily in just for CCS/EOR, Ireland and Morocco were just cute hang-ons as far as I was concerned - I thought PRD was potentially spectacular.
I thought this thing could really blow the doors off (hence GRH's great post re Michael Caine).
And, given the quality of many of the posters on this BB who added to the information/insight trove, I really believed that this thing was probably (I am very focused on probability-weighting) way beyond "too good to be true".
I took the view it was way better than good and much more than likely to be true.
As ever, the proof of the pudding will be in the outcome.
But I will be buying a bigger pudding bowl......
Pawn
to pick up on the point you/I were discussing earlier...
I am afraid I have to disagree with you...sorry
as there is nothing in today's RNS ruling out a back to back second drill.
Why not have a read of the December 2019 RNS ...
when the economies of such a strategy are outlined.
You might also wish to consider :
WHAT ELSE will the rig be doing in August and early September, given the SDX RNS ??
My view remains unchanged re TWO drills
of course, events are moving so quickly now
that a second drill might not be the only action on the horizon
I have banged on for ages re maybe conditional farm deals...
BTW1...
Wouldn't it be quite something if the CP acreage were less prospective than the PRD acreage?
BTW2...
Wouldn't it be quite something if the extraordinary numbers quoted in (among others) today's PRD RNS relate to only 0.6% of the areal extent of the PRD licences (no it is NOT homogenous!)?
ATB
AJ...
I really don't think many folk ...here or elsewhere...
have got their minds around the scale of the numbers...
whether comparative or in absolute terms
When they do, there will be a stampede
As to the notion that SDX 'has Egypt'...
yes of course...
but it has been mighty tricky to get money out of Egypt...
it was WHY Lufthansa closed their route to Egypt!!!!!!
In any event...to further accentuate the PRD advantage...
the nett $ to SDX PER Egyptian UNIT
is only 10% of the nett $ values PER UNIT to PRD in Morocco
And I have not even mentioned TT/EOR/CCS
(they might not be totally the same thing)
or Ireland
Again, some said I was potty to reckon that I will get a total value return of £15 per share from this
They said the same thing when I was buying in volume at 1.5p
They might be right of course this time...
and tomorrow might be Sunday
ATB
AJ, yup, I was trying to post similar earlier, but LSE/ iPad was playing up.
Just to add Mcap on SDX and PRD is similar - they have Egypt, but we have TT and Eire on top of Morocco.
Perhaps the only good thing about Jimmy Parsnips and that fiasco is that it ultimately led me here. That means my feet are on the ground and I only have this as a potentially pleasant surprise.
Mk111 - Yes indeed, calculator struggling with all the noughts. So glad I came across PRD late last year. Was the only benefit of owning shares in BPC - I came across reference to PRD!
Indeed AJ when investing in PRD it is important to double check commas and decimal points when looking at the potential figures. It's incredible.
At this SP and market cap, there are many minds out there that are still left to be boggled.
From PRD RNS of today:
"...results from MOU-1 may potentially de-risk up to 1,823 BCF of prospective High Estimate gross recoverable gas resources in the Tertiary and in the MOU-4 Prospect..."
Ref GRH's teaser point. SDX are targeting "a total of 1.3 bcf of P90/1.8 bcf of P50", vs. PRD's "1,823bcf". So PRD's target is 1,000 times larger than SDX's.
I'll repeat that - PRD's target is 1,000 times larger.
From SDX RNS of 4 May 2021:
"This first phase of the Morocco drilling campaign will consist of three appraisal/development wells, which management estimates will target a total of 1.3 bcf of P90/1.8 bcf of P50, gross unrisked prospective recoverable resources, in its operated Gharb Basin acreage in Morocco (SDX: 75% working interest)."
Pawn
I did read the RNS!!!!
I am out walking...will address your point this afternoon
ATB
They've said in the RNS only one well GRH immediately GRH but later in the year sounds exciting (not that the first drill isn't)
"a further drilling programme, including appraisal and exploration wells, when the Star Valley rig becomes available again later in 2021."
Personally am still expecting mid/ late July as per SDX's RNS but who cares its on this summer.
S
It’s great reading all the great minds on this board. Really makes the investment more worthwhile.
Some have already picked up on a few things I thought and others added even more! Btw my stiff drink is coffee this morning.
30th June is still June and brings the date forward from my original mid July forecast. If the first drill is done by ‘this’ weekend then we know we are on and the have the fast drill capability. Last 3 drills are deeper though so expect slightly longer schedules than the first.
By August we could be on something big from just this one part of the cake.
The Company intends to release its Financial Statements for the period to 31 December 2020 prior to the commencement of the MOU-1 drilling operations together with an updated business development plan for Morocco. This plan will focus on building on the successful planning and imminent execution of the MOU-1 drilling programme as a means of leverage to assess additional value-accretive opportunities that we have identified.
Wow..
No other word for it ...
Yes...you have spotted THE TIMING GAP!
Bear with me...this is mega...
-The PRD RNS of 9th December 2019 tells us that PRD can exercise an option to follow the first well with a back to back second well...
That can be either another exploration well ...
or an appraisal well.
-The same RNS also tells us that completing the first well will release to PRD $1m of the $1.5m bank guarantee that PRD provided when it took the licence.
- Turning to the SDX RNS of 4th May ...
we can see that they NOW expect to commence their second batch of two wells in September/October.
That leaves a gap of up to 3 months, though it is probably in reality a gap of a bit over 2 months.
That now gives ample time for TWO wells of the type PRD plans (30 days each...per 9/12/19 RNS).
So slotting those jigsaw pieces together ...I believe that PRD is likely to do not one well
but two back to back wells ...
Now starting in early July!
I also believe that it is likely that current financial resources will cover the cost of both wells....
IF NECESSARY...which I now think is moot!
It is even possible that the full $1.5m will be released after the second well. (Has anyone seen full details of the minimum licence terms??)
But there are clearly negotiations going on re farm deals
And maybe even much faster ...bigger campaign...divestments
If I am right...
That is a very big deal...VERY BIG INDEED
TWO back to back wells ...
That means that the COS this summer, that was already impressive, gets even better!
It also means that ...if the first well is a success...(!)
The second well can immediately start the appraisal process ...although given today's RNS.. I think things are moving far faster than I thought possible
TWO back to back wells
With full on 75% field equity
Yes ..I hear some say...
SDX has also retained 75%
Please do the following:
1...SIT DOWN...on the floor is safest!
2...look at the sdx RNS to see their Moroccan TOTAL Target volumes
3...then re-read todays PRD RNS for volume comparisons
4...Now have a stiff drink...you will need it!
5...Repeat item number 4!
This is ...hands down ...
THE biggest ...
Potentially most lucrative
drill campaign I have seen in more than ten years...
about to kick off in real time...incredible
It might also become my most lucrative overall investment in over 50 years...
Please DYOR...
ATB