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Looking forward to a 10+ Monday.
Nor would I, want to see my percentage ownership of PRD diluted, Zebra04,....dilution makes me see red.
BW
P.s
at current share count the price needs to get to £1.25 to reach txps market cap.
I wouldn't want to reduce my percentage ownership of the company. That is what dilution would do. Sure the sp may rise and my investment is worth more on paper. When it comes to exiting the percentage ownership matters more to me.
Hedgie will also attract more traders.
Imo let this company grow by itself. It has been doing so. The way the sp performs, traders are quickly flushed and the impatient part ways. This company has stayed at a low mcap for a long time which has meant it has been easy for lths to build up large positions. We've ended up with a bunch of lths with quite a significant percentage of the company. That wouldn't be possible if this was pumped to 100 mil mcap before its time.
Institutional money will come as the mcap grows. At this level they won't invest even if they like the story.
If morroco delivers then the sp will climb like txp did. As nice as that will look in my portfolio I would be more interested in what we can sell it for and what that would be worth at my ownership.
Sefton - you and I sing from the same sheet.
It's all about trying to get spotlight on PRDs proven and potential value . There is a lot of capital flowing around looking for a half decent home - it's a shame not to make an effort to attract it, especially when it's landing on junk.
You can see the change in sentiment on this bb from past few weeks as more PIs have discovered PRD - guess what it will be like if we have a sizeable new holder coming in. And there is nothing like price that changes sentiment. Look at Mmm, got frustrated with CLN induced depressing price action, a lot might have given up over the past year under 4p. Most like myself stumbled across PRD when it was mentioned on some other board or by some other poster we follow. Is there a better way to discover PRDs and it's potential?
All IMO dyor
If we push up on a low volume day with no news then that's good to me. Imagine what will happen when news comes out and the crowd start to realise this is more then just a CEO with money in a company but a CEO who's dream and belief of this company being all it can be slowly being unleashed to it's full potential. Trinidad is a massive deal for me once it was derisked the amount of carbon cut down for Trinidad and oil production it can do is indeed incredible!
Hi Tim,
I am not suggesting at all increasing liquidity. In fact, I believe that lack of liquidity is actually to the benefit of all us existing PRD shareholders.
I would go further and say that I am hugely encouraged at the lack of liquidity of late. But it seems to be driven by a lack of willing sellers (for good reason).
My issue is that we should be focused on maximising that to the benefit of the SP. There are few sellers, so we should be focused on getting more wannabe buyers - the lack of sellers makes it more pricey for them to get in.
I still struggle to understand why there is such a seeming unwillingness - maybe even more than that, determination - to get more potential buyers aware of the immense value in this stock.
It doesn't mean anyone has to sell.
But surely having more interested buyers, even if you choose not to sell, is a good thing?
Share talk ,Zak Mir says Prd day close above 8.6p should move up to 14p
Hi Tim..... What's dislocated alpha mean? never heard of that before. Cheers
Hi GRH,
Thanks for the post.
And you know that I regard your opinions highly.
And I absolutely agree that creating unnecessary illiquidity would give room to mischief-makers to start playing games. Which would not be to the benefit of shareholders (you, me and other members of the choir), so I would not be advocating at that.
In fact, I am not advocating anything as such, merely suggesting a thought - and I fully understand the reasons why you and others felt my thought was not a good idea.
We share a dislike of people speaking bull**** - which, since MMM got hauled off in a straitjacket - has been mercifully absent on this BB. Which has some seriously insightful posters, even if we may not always agree.
None of which much matters, given the common cause of seeing PRD create value. And it seems to be executing very well to the mission.
So, I am glad my suggestion elicited comment, all understandable (though I did not agree) and that the responses showed that we all share a common goal - great value crystallised in PRD - even though there may be different views on ways said goal could be best achieved.
PG may read this stuff, he may not, I don't know It kinda doesn't matter. He must lead the ship as he sees fit and take cognisance (or otherwise) of views expressed. The ultimate vote is whether one stays on the ship - and I am absolutely aboard on this ship (and have added to my holding).
And I like being n the choir, even if I may not always fully agree with the choice of hymn...
Have a great weekend!
Sefton
thanks
To be clear...
I have NO objection to the SP rising along the journey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
and I have no objection to new shares...
PROVIDED any such issuance is truly value accretive
(as opposed to bullsh*t speak ...as by some managements I can think of)
What I do have a major issue with is the notion of diluting my own holdings in order to create more 'liquidity' in the market...IE 'liquidity' into which traders can sell...
it would simply advantage them/disadvantage me
I think I have a decent enough handle on what the monetary value here might be...
and by definition, the issuance of new shares ...for the sake of it...
at anything below that value would be nett dilutive...simple math
I think that PG et al have their heads well planted on their shoulders...they are as keen not to dilute as I am
As Wack pointed out...we have TT
Decent discussion...
I enjoy the banter
ATB
I agree Sefton.
HFs eyes on PRD and being on the register would bolster liquidity for all and invite more players although volatility will increase as well. What's troublesome is if you see other junk on London market priced at multiples only on mention of some green or exploration potential - this is what makes PRD unique in terms of dislocated alpha. Sadly MMs have no clue how to price the stock so they drift from buys to sells and back and forth, happy with their spread earnings. For example, having some CO2 EOR growth projections and valuation will give hard numbers to the market and MMs to work with and that can underpin that part of the market cap irrespective of other segments. Hard to know if to price PRD as a growth stock(co2 EOR growth/ scalability) or a value stock(E&P) if no broker/etc. takes a stab at the numbers to begin with.
All IMO dyor
Hi GRH,
I use the term "hedgie" very loosely - it covers a wide spectrum of investors, with an equally wide-ranging spectrum of strategies and even ethical standards.
There is no direct need for them in the PRD situation - where, so far as I am aware, there is no need for capital investment support, at least at the moment. And, many of them add no value per se beyond a private individual investor. In fact, some can be actively value-destructive, either by trying to exercise influence (often on the basis of "helping strategically") or by playing silly games with financial structures.
I am aware that you and at least several others in the choir back the pure-play, asset crystallisation, followed by distribution (special dividend, whatever) model. So, for the record, do I.
And I fully understand that that model is totally independent of where the share price is at any given moment - as a shareholder, you either get your special dividend or you don't; in other words, it is an absolute, not dependent on an ethereal thing called the stock price.
So, I buy totally into that. And I knew that was the PG strategy from the get-go. And, for me, there have been no surprises (or disappointments) on that journey - and I have more than doubled my PRD shareholding since I first came in.
Where we might seem to have a point of departure is that I do not see that strategy as excluding the share price rising along the journey. It is great that many of the choir are prepared to just wait until the asset sales come through as and when they do (and I count myself as very much of that mind too).
But i do not see why that should be seen as mutually exclusive to a share price rise along the way. And any such share price rise necessarily requires either new investors or current investors buying more - new investors are more likely to rise the price because it is indicative of new interest, not just more of the choir singing a new hymn.
Whether those others are hedgies or anyone else, I don't much care, as long as there is not a situation of a takeover grouping being built up to buy-out at a discount (I think that unlikely, given the criticality of PG to the whole thing - it seems to me that no takeover could occur without PG).
I do not hold a candle for hedgies at all. Many are idiots, clowns, scoundrels (not dissimilar to the normal human traits distribution curve).
All I want to do is maximise my investment in PRD. And, in my case, as it seems for quite a few others in the choir, I am not time-constrained or impatient. It takes as long as it takes.
But I must admit, I do struggle to understand what seems to be quite a visceral dislike of any any outside investors coming into the stock and, ideally, helping it rise as it advances to what we all seem to agree is a fantastic end destination.
I suspect that our perspectives are not actually very far apart and it may just be a matter of semantics.
Good luck to top slicers going against the trend. This is going up even with profit taking
Afternoon Sefton
A question please, if I may...
you keep mentioning hedge funds ...
(Family offices do not necessarily deploy long/short/'active' strategies)
WHY are you so interested in hedgies per se?
WHAT is the upside for me personally?
...or indeed for you/other equity holders?
I am a bit baffled TBH
There are many mighty decent sized non hedge players whose radars are starting to ping quietly
Speaking personally, I have NO wish to be caught by a 'back of the book' play
or as I mentioned before a 'banging the close' strategy etc
There are many strategies in the armoury of hedges...
one of my great friends/co Trustee/near neighbour owned a decent hedge fund that he sold to Bruce Covner
ATB
The relatively gentle upward trajectory of PRD's share price is a good thing. I know there was something of a spike this morning but things then calmed down a bit - which is a good thing.
A sustained upward trajectory is a much more attractive opportunity for a hedgie to buy into than buying after a huge spike (especially if the spike was not related to specific news). There are a few reasons for that - i) buying in after a spike invites the question as to why you hadn't been on the ball and spotted it coming? (the people for whom hedgies manage money can be pretty unforgiving, given the large fees they are paying); ii) hedgies consider themselves the cleverest boys and girls in the room (sometimes justifiably) and hate ever thinking they might have been suckered and been the bag-carrier when the whole thing does a Nikola and iii) averaging up actually enables you to show that each previous investment at a lower price was a good investment.
If it is hedgies/Family Offices coming in (and I think it may very well be), I think it is great for PRD because they will seldom bother to take a small position - once they decide to come in, they will usually only do so if they intend to take a decent position in the stock.
That would be good news for all here. Some may exit, some may shave positions (do a bit of profit-taking) on the trip but, overall, it is a good thing because the hedgies will usually only have come in if they see big upside, not just for pedestrian returns.
I, for one, won't be selling anytime soon. Maybe not ever, if the strategy of ultimately liquidating all assets to cash is pursued. And my views on this stock, which were originally positive (and I came in originally for CCS/EOR in Trinidad, viewing Ireland and Morocco as incidental) have only become much, much positive over time. I would never put a number to it but I would be significantly disappointed if PRD did not achieve more than a Fiver (Pounds).
DYOR - I have been wrong before (10 years ago I thought Apple was a crap stock and I maintained that view as it made many people millionaires! So, there would need to be whole chicken farms required to produced enough eggs for my face on that one).
there was some guy on twitter buying yesterday but it didn't really go that high ,no idea of the move today..
I can’t buy even 1000 shares at the moment ???
If the upward momentum is being caused by some larger investors (hedge funds/Family Offices, etc), do not worry about short term little dips in the SP.
These guys know what they are doing and have no intention of paying over the odds if they can possibly help it. And it is relatively easy to plant a few sells at below what the real price is - and thus give an appearance of a bit of a sell-off.
As long as the choir stands firm, no meaningful buys will go through at lower levels and the upward momentum should be restored.
And it is good that the upward momentum is on a fairly restrained trajectory. Massive leaps in the absence of news that might have caused such leaps are usually more to be worried about than than pleased about.
The upward momentum here seems to me to have been probably caused by one or more bigger investors having decided to pull the trigger and start building a decent position. That is a good thing - building systemic strength in the PRD stock price.
When some real news comes out, it could be very good to watch.
re the choir, i don't sing very well ,but i am afully paid up member ,and won't be leaving the party any time soon. excellent posts by the way.
Hi Tim,
I am sure that there is no causation between my postings and SP uplift (would that I had that power!).
But there may be correlation. And that has less to do with my views than with the response they elicited from others in the choir.
I know that several hedgies do now follow this BB - and there may well be more outside the ones I know - and I think the very strong response to my posting last night might have really forced these hedgies to think carefully about what to do here.
If the choir (LTH's) are so adamantly against dilution - as was made clear by several posters - then the hedgies have a real problem getting in here. Absent a direct placing, they will have to buy in the open market. The strong response (all negative - in a good way) against my suggestion of a direct placing may well have focused their mind on then whether they need to get in now when the price is cheap relative to upside and the time-delta factor seems to be concertina-ing (compressing).
BTW, I have always advocated for hedge funds/Family Offices to be the buying momentum here, not conventional institutional investors (Prudential and various other dog shows - but they won't be interested in this kind of stock anyway).
Hi CLT,
No response from PG
Sefton - good to see you back in full swing. Strangely the positivity in the graph seems to correlate with your posting on here - it's correlation I suppose and not causation although would not be surprised given your positivity and conviction gets PIs to increase their conviction and suck the free float off the market by buying/adding in more.
Given that PRD is coming in PIs radar via Twitter especially for its Morocco drill transformational prospect - the free float would be sucked out fast as more PIs research over the weekend and get to the grips of the size of the price. Although the quality of discussions on this bb will also go down as more yellers at the daily price movements overwhelm the board content.
Maybe the IIs and HFs be rather comfortable to take PRDs market cap from 100 to 300mn+ for their 200% rather than 20 to 100mn mcaps.
MEM - good to see you back. Guessing you didn't get a response from PG yet, for your email...
Btw hope you derisked OMI on the recent assays results... Looks like the aegos poster was bang on on his VMS prospect prediction. Didn't like his resource estimates for the area that he shared back in 2018/2019 I guess. Anyways atb with OMI in case you still in.
All IMO dyor
Hi MEM,
My thumbs are getting in the way again. I need to swap this bloody typewriter for one of these laptop things next time I get back out of the bush.
I meant PG would be following his strategy, not following up.
God forbid I might have - via typo - implied that I thought PG should respond to BB comments.
Hi MEM,
Indeed, it is better contemplating how best to divvy things up than wondering whether there will be anything.
Anyway, it is all a bit of fun anyway - PG will have his strategy and follow up and I hardly think he is the sort of chap to run his corporate finance strategy off BB posts (which would be a terrible idea).
But it is good to see PRD is rending upwards.
Like I have said before, PRD is currently my only British-listed stock. The rest is all US-listed and overwhelmingly tech and biotech.
So, given the last week - and what I think is still to come - it is refreshing to be able to look at PRD's share price graph and remind oneself that stock prices do sometimes go upwards!
Have a great weekend all in the choir!