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I think they will need to tidy up the nomenclature again. With SMD now thought to stretch from Talitha into Alkaid. Likewise the BFF from Talitha to Theta West. I think they should just skip the area names and use the reservoir names. Looks like SMD may require and upper and a lower just like BFF. Can’t wait for the upgrade on BFF, not long now. It’s easy to get to a risked valuation of £3 plus so this price seems ridiculous in regards to risk and reward.
Fantastic post thank you Olderwiser for sharing your thoughts.
It's a very nice situation to be in when the excitement for a $270m mcap company is not about the $795m NPV10 project based on a $55 oil price (vs. $68 ANS crude) but it's big brother to be announced within 10 days (fingers crossed).
The sheer size of Theta west and Talitha BFF's upper and lower, combined with the short wait period for confirmation of the resource estimate, have rightly placed it front and centre of investors minds. But spare a thought for Alkaid.
Effectively Alkaid has become one of the bridesmaids, but separate her out from the wedding party and there is plenty to admire.
Alkaid already has a contingent resource of 76mmb, this was based on well data including a flow test of 100bpd over a 6 ft section. Selected from a net oil pay of 240 ft, from within 400 ft of gross oil pay.
Drilling was cut short (8485 ft TVD) by an extreme weather event whilst still in the pay section, seismic indicates there is probably more to come below.
Talitha has revealed another zone 750 ft above the tested zone at Alkaid. This is the SMD that extends from Talitha to Alkaid, some 56570 ft. Importantly just below the Decker D regional seal, at around 7100 to 7200 ft. Although PANR were aware of this zone in Alkaid, it would not have been part of the 76mmb of contingent resource, so will be a substantial addition when the work is completed.
Although close to infrastructure, Alkaid 1 is still subject to, a winter season only operating window.
In PANR's unitisation application Alkaid 2 is in the plan “Drilling operations are scheduled to take place in Summer 2021 from a gravel pad just west of the Dalton Highway. A currently estimated project timeline is as follows:”
Page 22
https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Document/9EC60B3C88AF462F8B2D52866ED0AE5D/11-2-2020__Alkaid_Unit_Formation_Application_-_2020_-_Decision_Approval?
Obviously things change so the timeline will slip, a farm in partner, or capital, will be sought, secured and involved before the plan can be actioned.
The economics improve with scale, initially the independent expert (LKA) gave a value of.
$595 million NPV10 based on modelled 44 wells, and c.70 MMBO (1)Phase 1 field development over a 20 year term at an oil price of $55 held flat
$8.50 NPV10 per barrel of oil
PANR have upgraded this to $795 million purely on the reduced drilling costs achieved at Talitha, reducing drilling cost by one third has added $200m to the value and increased the NPV10 per barrel of oil to $11.36.
Apply a scale up figure, unknown at this time but it is coming in a few months. For a visual perspective check page 36 of the presentation. Compare the small test flow zone (red bar) with the newly proven SMD going right across the page, at about 7150 ft on the Alkaid well drawing.(zoom up to see the depth numbers written on the well)
http://www.pantheonresources.com/investors/presentations/659-investor-presentation-april-2021/file
Reading that you would suggest that the big boys need to buy up some good ground/discoveries. Alternatively they need to explore and find some of their own. It’ll always be a risk with energy and fossil fuels but we will always need oil and gas aslong as it’s on the planet. I think this pandemic if you want to call it that has created almost a reset for all this. Look at tullow for example, dropped to 9p a share last year, back to 50p and will probably go back to £’s. People make it happen and make a truck load of money out of it. Just need to hang on in this lull and watch it kick off again. I want to be on the train when it leaves the station!
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Big-Oil-Is-In-Desperate-Need-Of-New-Discoveries.html
Any ideas folks?
*very good as apposed to dry. These smart phones aren’t very smart at times, or the users of them aren’t, lol
Seems very quiet and down beat the chat. I’m a little surprised given recent findings etc. I know not all is known at the moment but surely it’s going to be good, dry good in fact. Not to be seen to be ramping or anything, just a little surprised it’s not more up beat that’s all.
GLA
Bynari,
Many thanks for posting the article - also a few more interesting ones in the thread.
An excellent post over on Reddit posted by u/Ok-GeodesRock49 - well worth a look
Summer Time / All-Season Drilling: Pantheon's Discovery of Basin Floor Fan Turbidities -and Shelf Margin Deltaic Reservoirs in the North Slope of Alaska.
https://www.reddit.com/r/3CPG_PetroleumGeology/comments/n82mze/summer_time_all_season_drilling_pantheons/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf