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I am the same SirMark on here ADVFN and Discord
On the 19th April I posted that a Bearish engulfing candle had just been posted, now under fib support, next short term support 29.8p but a more realistic and stronger support being the fib projection at 27.7p (which is also the 61.8% more major fib).
Price will also be drawn down by the major indicators, these being the 100 day SMA at 26.3p and the 200 day SMA at 23.65p.
On balance volume (OBV) continues its decline and of particular relevance is the MACD which has firmly now broken down and changed trend through the signal line - The drop will imo continue.
The drop has indeed continued and even taking the shorter term fib support based on the close of the candle (09/04) rather than the top, it has now bounced and retraced multiple times of the main fib.
The thinking this could be the bottom is now shaky indeed, no doubt the support is strong and I have thought a bounce may be on a number of times, however it has, but it has only intraday been breached, over 3 times now and each time the highs are lower and the lows are lower. A bearish sign. Unfortunately, OBV hasn’t changed direction nor has MACD. If I was to ONLY trade based on technical, I would say PANR is going down further.
However, the fact that, as I discussed earlier, the scarcity of posts on the last RNS (Independent Expert Report by LKA on Alkaid Horizon), I assumed most were not that impressed, a potential bullish moment may be the next report on the Ahpun Field by Cawley Gillespie & Associates, but if this has a similar response (or it is trumped by a placing first), then the only news left is that of funding, which I think many are thinking that is going to be a placing or at least a large placing element, additionally news surrounding AGDC has not been the best.
I think some mentioned they are sounding desperate https://www.adn.com/business-economy/energy/2024/05/01/alaska-gas-line-leaders-ask-lawmakers-to-support-giving-44b-project-until-years-end-to-succeed-or-die/
Thus, on balance between the current news that has been rather subdued and the potential news that may not be the best, combined with the technical, then I would not be a buyer of PANR at this moment.
If I wished to, I would look for more guaranteed signs, i.e. a move above 33.1p or a left field positive news event.
Failing this then the lower increasing trend line in play from August last year would provide an entry at around 25p – 26p.
My view Hold or trim to buy lower.
Genuinely wish i could afford to add around these prices. I have a way to go before getting back to my average of 88 cents. Still i have more faith than ever that the company is diligently working in the right direction. Could i ask if the sirmark posting on here is actually the sirmark who has the large investment we know about. GLTA, 2028 will be here before you know it.
Sirmark
There is some stealthy accumulating going on in the background, look at these also after hours, another 400K
3rd May
Time Bid Offer Trade Volume Buy / Sell Value Trade Type
17:36:15 32.45p 32.80p 32.9400p 200,000 Buy £65,879.99 Off-book trade
17:36:15 32.45p 32.80p 32.9400p 200,000 Buy £65,879.99 Off-book trade
400k buy or yesterday got filled 31.85 late reported this morning.
Sirmark,
Unless someone is having to buy back their shorts?
After a week of declines, the SP finally moved back up yesterday and starting looking today as if it was all over but behind the scenes today buy orders coming in decent sizes .. currently for example 15:28 400,000 30.75 some not wanting to get locked out.... and any news on the gas deal will send this into orbit !!!! and you can put a £1 /£2 in front of the share price.¬¬¬ plus funding and additional upgrades to come plus the Brookian looking conventional will be great as our recovery rates could improve to 40%+ on the same zone ... anyway all if and buts, but looks like were now ready to move back on & up again !
None of which is out of the ground and may never happpen
17:01
According to their 2023 business presentation YE2023 2P reserves 117mmbbls, they are in production and have a share buy back plan and dividend in place, so further ahead in the cycle and with ACTUAL production.
So not really comparing eggs with eggs.
But their share price is probably already reflective of what they have today so you have to decide which company meets what you are looking for with your investment.
If you are already invested here you have probably already decided that the potential here is worth the risks.
https://petrotalcorp.com/investors/
Interesting that PTAL have 2024 Company presentation tomorrow so DT may well just be getting the name across.
April 10th RNS confirms CGA report will be in Western Ahpun. Eastern is part of same field but are different reservoirs that carry appraisal risk. However Pantheon's seismic has been proven to be successful in spotting oil accumulations so far. Permeability expected to ~100fold increase from Western Topsets (~10,000 fold better than Alkaid).
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PANR/webinar-and-update-rhf8gw2epra0cdn.html
DarienTaylor could it be that the size of the field in Peru is 38M. Where as PANR have a field of over 1Bn. Slight difference!
Good news for the SP today, price retreated to the 50 day simple moving average which acted as the reversal bouncing as I hoped off both the SMA and the 21 day low price channel. A move back above the fib removed the 3 dark crow bearing candlestick, to end in a short tailed hammer. Could be quite bullish for the price and indicate that the downward pressure has run out of steam, a bullish engulfing, ideally closing above 33.1p (50% fib) would confirm a trend reversal, might be an interesting trade tomorrow.
DarienTaylor, what is you Soverign risk and credit risk policy when valuing an asset in Peru vs an asset in the US?
08:39
"18api oil" ?
The eastern extension is all part of the same oilfield that has already had a drill and test done last year. It’s just on the other side of a large river, hence they intend to get at it with long horizontal wells.
The eastern extension would require an appraisal (Megrez-1) before being included?
Are you sure? according to WH Ireland
" The company stated it is expecting a report from Cawley Gillespie on the Ahpun Topsets (and the newly awarded Eastern Extension) with better reservoir properties in the coming weeks. "
Been comparing this with PTAL. who produce 20kbopd and have $150 miilion in the bank and growing with another well about to produce on the biggest oil field in peru market cap £430 mill. against this heap of dung with 18api oil in the ground no revenue and no money at a market cap of £300 mill.... its laughable
Yes you are correct, apologies, CGA are just doing the western top sets on Ahpun.
Mif51, I don't think the new Eastern leases are included in the pending IER.
Good post stas and it would be nice to get an increase with the report but I think it’s all about the funding of the $150 m and we’re farming out or doing a deal to be honest
All the reports in the world don’t seem to move us But in the wrong direction but it will be the money in the bank to implement the boards plan to cash self sufficiency
Then there’s no stopping David’s grand plan
The Akaid horizon is the smallest and deepest on the ahpun acreage but still came in commercially, the next IER is for the topset and the new eastern zones which are expected to be huge.
Note my post from the 2nd
"This could be the bottom. Price is sitting right on the support line, 61.8% fib @ 31.3p (if the fib is taken from the 9th April close rather than the top) however, sometimes it is important to see if the trades are obeying the close rather than the spike, in this case it may be valid as the close was respected on the 18th April where the price bounced from the low of 31.275p"
Once again on the 31.3p, 61.8% fib for the 3rd time - will it bounce!
Based on the scarcity of posts on the last RNS (Independent Expert Report by LKA on Alkaid Horizon), Should I assume most were not that impressed - Do you think the next report on the Ahpun Field by Cawley Gillespie & Associates is going to be received better?
Interesting to note that the share rose 3.62% in America after the English close. Good to see it showing the way.
Thanks for information.
Always learning.