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We just don’t know what’s behind the dispute, it’s pure speculation still.
What we do know is what was in the RNS and your line “The financial statements report that product replacement is a possible (not probable) resolution.”
misrepresents the RNS, which actually says “ It is possible, but not probable, that the DHSC's claim for a refund under the limited assurance warranty will be successful.”
We’ll find out, when we find out.
Be patient, this is long term, not short term. The cash position is strong and the H1 sales are strong, even taking out the disputed income.
Morning Try2buylow my goodness that's deep for this time in the morning:) Do I understand you think the board are more to blame?
Significant re lft and critical re 3G whilst not figures are surely significant statement of financial positivity?
I don't post because of the unbalanced enthusiasm for the SP.
Karen told be to trot off when I questioned what might be behind the dispute. She could accept me asking whether it might be product related. The only line she could tolerate at the time was that any resolution would be easy and amicable to resolve.
The financial statements report that product replacement is a possible (not probable) resolution. A potential customer will read that & conclude "there is hardly any dispute with the major client who fully endorses the product" - er NO, wake up Karen.
People seem to have their suspended disbelief so much we have been unable to consider Q1 sales dragged into dispute. If they had not, even Karen might have wondered how a business provides a customer product when that customer has put their account on hold (i.e. hasn't paid for significant pervious deliveries) while paying out huge sums to other suppliers. Who supplies a non paying customer?
It is a tragedy that GM resigned when he had to announce there was a dispute. GM seems to have been wholeheartedly committed to the business and then decided to retire. The explanation can not just be receiving a bonus, it must be business related.
SBI has a higher PE, they also have IIs and for example Chris Mills on the board (not sure what role). Even if he was a non exec what would he do? Someone like him would available for a CEO to sense check a decision, or perhaps corporate governance may require their formal approval of certain decisions.
IMO - could be wrong - the non execs & particularly the Chairman have failed here in either supporting GM somehow. Could he have been left to deal with the DHSC relationship entirely on his own? If so that is a failure, alternatively they approved giving out £41m net of PROmate in Feb without supporting him properly when the DHSC let him down. Perhaps the DHSC has been duplicitous, perhaps not, a business needs its decision makers supported from the psychological blow back of errors, particularly large ones, regardless of the client's choices.
Whatever has happened also reveals weaknesses between the company and its SH base. The investing community in the funds world have a greater and earlier awareness than PIs of the DHSC issue. We have hung on the sparse revelation of information. Perhaps materiality for RNS disclosure has changed through this year so business is less chunky now, in which case an absence of volume metrics leaves the market unable to value the business or its products.
It is revealing that after GM must have started his exit process several products have been announced such as a LFT. None had estimates of their commercial potential. Perhaps he has done his best for us in his twilight phase but commerciality or distribution were just never his cup of tea. Can the same be imagined at eg AVCT or SBI if they ever announced new products? This BoD need another kick for not getting this piece in place sooner IMO.
Excellent post Porky! That really needed saying!
So sick of these scumbags bad mouthing and and straight up lying about good companies for their own selfish gains. Never EVER have I nor ever will I slate a company the way these rats have been doing for money as I know there will be people with real problems hurting out there. Life is hard enough as it is. Been on the edge myself many times this year, these are trying times and when your finances are in trouble it feels like your support system has been taken away.
Been a long long time since I've posted as is probably true for most LTH who have been going through the motions (again). All I can say is I still have my +30k share count that I had at the peak (actually more than I had at the peak). There is just no way I'm selling now coming from where I've come from. The current value is just ridiculous for the quality of the company. I was always in for a long hold so to any shorters or market rats reading you ain't getting 30k+ shares from me!
Yes, we are in a rut but I remind myself like every other bad situation I've been through "the story isn't over". We will be back and it could happen overnight. Stick to all the DD that has been done. NCYT is the cream of the crop and cream ALWAYS rises to the top. We are being played but once their game is up the rats will leave and fundamentals will prevail.
Bet that old chinease versalab being put to good use ......i always beleived the ukrain unicef order was a fantastic RNS missed ....i penciled in. around the 23rd for a update saw a intresting piece on appleton site but was taken off next day maybe a slapped wrist ....so cant confirm ...maybe new chief will be a bit more shareholder friendly ...
Hi Gizmo555 nice to here from you all vastly improved here, no doubting on the money making front, could do with them being clearer about some stuff, great tweet yesterday but really 3G validation should have at worst been an Rns reach now I feel wrong for being critical lol.
Don't question my share buying. Its not Mythical. Every purchase i have made is genuine and i am building a holding. FACT
Its not worth my time declaring anything here because all that happens is two bit posters like you pop up and criticise.
You say " every single mythical top you have made the share price has gone lower, every time! Do you not feel stupid getting it wrong 20+ times?"
My purchases over the last six months are down because the share price has fallen, you are looking at this over a six month window where a Dispute came into play. No i don't feel stupid because i haven't lost a bean, i have no intention of selling my holding. You can trade short it to 1 pence im still NOT selling. At some point the SP has to reflect its fundamental values.
I'm saying that a six month window is NOT long enough when they are building a business of this magnitude. If at this time next year we are still at £ 3 i will evaluate - for now, everything is still in play and i will go on adding. Its my money, i can do what i like with it...
Havent posted much recently just been doing reasearch ..... how many universties.. Gov reasearch labs. Vetinary marine agricultural worldwide use genesig ...global testing market forecasts ..........number 1 .....swine flu. ...first on scene ebola ....sars .....first covid .....what will be left ........accuracy ......genesig established ...future secure ....and anyone who thinks that primerdesign are not making money now ....money men control the price but not the spread of genesig global .......in places where accuracy counts ........hi wilson hope your well fella ....
Oh bless i see the little shorting and negative troop are all out tonight to - do your worst...
No what i find bloody irritating is keyboard warriors like you that can't even read a fcking RNS or the annual report and spout rubbish. To help you out here it is:-
1. Ref: supplying other countries:-
Page 13 - Top Left
"the business has undergone transformational change during 2020 and has been at the heart of providing testing capability
both in the UK and in over 130 countries worldwide"
OK i posted 150 but I'm sure they added to it since January. Minimal in some countries but proof they have a distribution network that's far reaching.
2. Ref: No idea of sales values:-
Page 7 - Bottom Right
The financial outcomes for 2020 show a highly profitable business that experienced extraordinary growth throughout the year. Beneath the headline numbers, we focus on specific metrics for our stakeholders:
• Sales growth of >20 times; EBITDA
margin of 64%; cash position of
£92 million; debt free
Page 27 of the Report - left hand side:
Group revenue increased (20x) to £277.2 million), compared to £11.5 million for the full year of 2019.
Primerdesign accounted for the major part of this growth achieving £272.8 million of revenue in 2020 compared with £5.5 million in 2019.
All key territories saw year-on-year growth, with the UK market seeing sales increase to £219.4 million in 2020 compared with £2.1 million in 2019,
Sales to Europe (excluding the UK) were £32.0 million in 2020 compared with £2.7 million in 2019, driven by increased distributor sales of our range of COVID-19 tests.
Sales to the Americas were £10.3 million compared £2.3 million in 2019.
Then RNS 22 June - Half way down the page ref 2021 trading:-
"For the five months ended 31 May 2021, the Company had unaudited sales of £88.4m compared to £40.8m for the same period in 2020. This £88.4m includes £40.7m of sales to the DHSC, which are part of the dispute. Excluding the DHSC, the Company saw a run-rate of over £10m in sales per month in Q1 2021"
SO DONT COME ON HERE SUGGESTING WE DONT KNOW THE TRADING FIGURES THEY ARE IN BLACK AND WHITE.
We have the complete picture through to the end of May and we have an estimate of £7 to £10m for June. So H1 is circa £95m including DHSC and if 100% of DHSC is stripped out (which it wont be) it would be £ 55m for the first half.
Then we have Travel testing in H2 to add, new product lines to add and expansion stateside to add in. PLUS they still supply the NHS with Promate under the £3bn National framework award
Finally, there are other business in this sector with far far far less revenues that Novacyt on a significantly higher value, sentiment is low here granted, the share price is on the floor granted but don't tell me its some kind of crap business on its way out, its not. The share price is down...... for now.
Pondfrog I was absolutely amazed to read through all of your posts and find you hadn't posted one relevant link of assistance for your fellow shareholders, gobsmacked.
Yes agree Here Kitty Kitty. I think BYP has returned. Funny how they only joined LSE today after BYP was banned and defending BYP's behavior.
How's the clinical performance director doing ? What was his previous job?
Nice to see some posters piling in tonight Criticising some of the long termers who've stuck their head above the parapet and posted links etc etc beef should be with the company and not people who post links that may be relevant. Macmdude as somebody said to porky9 sometimes it's best to stay quiet(not getting at you porky) if you think your a smart arse while people are losing money that tells all investors everything about you .
I'm not fully aware of all of the 'original posters' but know that there's a fair few been posting longer than me (doesn't mean their invested here).
Would imagine that there's also many who don't bother to post anymore.
Notice you mention that SP £54 prediction was ridiculous which suggests many more also saw it that way.
Porky's prediction for end of July was ' more than likely SP £12 ' yet hardly mentioned by anyone.
Guess that some people believe what they want to believe at any point in time especially when seeking re-assurance and easing anxiety.
Brilliant, right on cue! How dare anyone question rampers on here of a share that’s gone from £12 to £3 in a matter of months.
A 2 post wonder
It's interesting you mention "anyone still invested here" cos from what I'm seeing troublesome there are very few of the original BB posters left. As for Porky he has ramped this share to death and with his every other daily top up must be hideously underwater by now. What to do but hang on in there now in the vain hope this gets anywhere near the £12.00 it once got to never mind Porkys ridiculous £54.00 estimate.
No Porky, I am basing it on you talking rubbish. You post rockets every day on Twitter about how this price will ‘boom’, pretty much every day the price falls. You repeatedly quote the line about how Novacyt have sales in 150 countries, but by your own admission by your post 29 April you have no idea of the sales value. So every day you post how sales are booming in 150 countries but you have no idea of the figures.
My anger is with the company and the share price decline, my annoyance is you posting rubbish.
Macmdude/captain hindsight/septic peg!
I'm assuming that anyone still invested here still has belief in the company and that it will reach its full potential in time.
IMO, that's the only question that needs to be asked and to oneself.
No-one should believe in an individual or group of investors, hang on their every word or worst of all their SP predictions.
Out of interest, does anyone recall Porky's last SP prediction for the end of July ??
There is a long list of SP predictions somewhere as a pre-Christmas exercise also, yet no-one seems to be highlighting those as all of those as I recall may prove equally embarassing !!
Appreciate your question was probably non rhetorical, indeed it is frustrating but DHSC have been in dispute with many other suppliers. Novacyt is not in an exclusive club here...
Lets hope under the ADR a resolve can be reached soon
* You are basing your attack on the fact that the share price has declined.
* You consider me stupid for buying this stock because the price has declined. You will consider me even more stupid shortly as I'm clearing funds to add further.
The bit you are not understanding is that i am a value INVESTOR i seek out undervalued assets, that is my investment style. I don't see Novacyt as a failing business about to close down any time soon or in need of a cash call. I see it as long term significant diagnostics group of the future with world class Bioinformatics.
The SP is down but the business isn't. Tonight's market cap is £ 216m, i see this as a mega buying opportunity, not a time to sell. I believe that ultimately the share price will properly reflect its fundamental value.
Now this isn't advice for you to buy, seriously you should sell out now if you are not comfortable investing here, that's the right thing for you to do in this situation. Meanwhile, for me, I'm still building my position
DYOR, make your own calls - Good Luck
Another question to DA
“Do you feel your capable of turning Novacyt group into a mid cap £1 billion company ? And in what time scale ? “
Porky or anyone asking the board questions. A good question would be to ask if ncyt will be questioning the dhsc as to why they have not asked for a refund from innova plc for faulty goods?
You forgot option 3
You love the company so much u don't mind captain Smith steering the good ship ??