The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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Excellent posts. Rsmithy. I feel actually the same and have been kicking myself for being greedy back in Jan. I agree the fundamentals haven’t changed we have just lost maybe some revenue from one contract. We have many other avenues we just need some confidence bought back in with information around what we are winning now.
For anybody looking forward to something else tomorrow
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=sham+69+hurry+up+harry&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-gb&client=safari
After Friday's fall you think that this company had been trading on a high multiple and that NCYT was loosing money whilst servicing a large amount of debt, fortunately nothing could be further from the truth.
Words of reason from both Shaun P and Rsmithy I agree with both of you. Lots of opinion at one end of the spectrum or the other nice to see sensible reasoning. I am staying as I believe we have lots of options to move forward and we do not need any financial support due to cash in the bank which is still growing each day. Interesting to see if the margins will improve or at least stay the same.
Playing around with the numbers, for me worst case scenario is revenue at £10m/month for the rest of the year, although I think we shall do better than that, we already have £72m revenue from Q1, therefore the company shall smash £100m a year in profit and have a sizeable amount of cash in the bank. None of this allows for new products, which are known to be in the pipeline.
Can't get my head around the number of vacancies at present and the implications, seems an awful lot of jobs when the company has just announced a profit warning.
It's not all bad news and I expect 2021 has some nice surprises in store. I shall continue to hold.
The worse a situation becomes, the less it takes to turn it around, the bigger the upside.
George Soros
This is just my personal view but if it helps one person make a balanced decision going forward then it was worth writing.
Like many by the time I’d read the RNS around 4pm the share price had already plummeted and my first instinct was to sell.
I stopped myself, the damage was done and I hadn’t read or absorbed the RNS probably. I knew I was in a panic, I had just lost 50% of my hefty investment as I was previously down before the news.
You see I was expecting this share to rise on news of the second contract and then planning to top slice profit, pat myself on the back and tell myself how wonderful I am.
I lost the bet, I’d read on a few occasions the dangers of this share being tied to one main customer and chose to ignore it, it didn’t fit with my plans. Although initially putting the blame and anger at GMs door it’s no one else’s fault but mine. A hard pill to swallow but one I have to take.
I did my research and this is a company with great potential. I admit that I often read and liked posts that suited my game plan but we often read what we want to see.
So where now?
A questions I always ask myself is have the fundamentals of the company changed and the answer to me is no.
This is a company that has leapfrogged and stepped up during the covid crisis and who is still making a lot of money without the second contract and sounds fairly confident that they are legally entitled to any disputed funds.
There is far more business than the UK market and as the richer nations become vaccinated there is still the issue with poorer nations.
And this is where the biggest covid threat comes from.
If this virus continues to mutate it could make vaccines worthless and this is where we must continuing testing.
Having been there, as you come out of your bubbles and back to life you forget that the rest of the world is not with you.
This company is not just a covid testing company , it has many other interests, it’s just that covid is an overriding factor at present.
I believe that the current SP is to low and taking into account the fundamentals I won’t be selling, especially at this price and that’s a risk I’m willing to take.
Yes it may go slightly lower over the next couple of days while people make their decisions but I do think it will bounce.
A would suggest to anyone in the same boat to look at why they invested and try not to get stung by the panic. If you still want to sell after you’ve had time to think then do what’s right for you.
DYOR