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Thanks Jarv
I’ve seen that grid .. it came out prior to the JV announcement and the WHO accreditation.. so slightly out of date numbers however the principles clearly still apply.. the sales line is now clearly out of scale.. as we already know that 18mn based on raw mats has been purchased 2 weeks ago..it’s a high need limited resource product ... it would be interesting to understand how this chart scales...
Domestic market alone will be c30-50mn tests and we are looking at 3m per month at 100k per day by end may... how many countries ... the big question for me isn’t sales... you could take 3bn orders.. how/ where will they be made... and quickly to come out if lockdown..the economic pressure, whilst on a human level is deplorable and clearly a real one... whilst there is no antibody test, people will be tested more than once surely...
Respectfully I don't think you have allowed nearly enough for I.P. rights, rapidly expanding Sales, and 'Hope value'
But who really knows ? any Offer would best come along in a few months to allow the SP to move towards £7 - £8, then an offer of £9.80 giving a M/Cap of circa £665m
Most parties would be happy, leave something for the next man.
Its worth looking at this table I like the orange zone https://twitter.com/GMF782/status/1241031678484721665
I'm with the t/o camp - GSK or AZN- what price is anyone's guess but right now would conservatively figure opening offers of around 600 +
My opinion only - DYOR
Thanks Wolfgang
Do we honestly think it will get to the end of the year??? I really jay cannot see why anyone would wait for sales volumes to fly... and we know they will...
I just can’t see it, If manufacturing scale into 100’s millions is confirmed this is a £bn marcap business... comfortably... sounds glib... when you do the math it is incredible... sales and mfacturing have to be confirmed soon... especially with the SP volatility... there is a responsibility to communicate.
"By end of year if we have a £250m profit (which could be rather conservative, depending on how things pan out), do we really think our MCap will be anything like £250m? Our EPS would be £3.67, which at our current levels gives us a P/E of 1. So even applying a low P/E ratio of 8, that gives us a share price of £30. Frightening really!"
See, when you look at the above figures it makes a £50 sp one day not as inconceivable as some think.
SNG
30th March - this is old news too https://novacyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Novacyt-COVID-19-test-update-ENGLISH-30.03.20.pdf
Manufacturing capacity
Further to the announcement on 12 March 2020, Novacyt can confirm its manufacturing partner,
located in mainland Europe, is BioType Diagnostic GmbH (BioType). BioType, based in Dresden,
Germany, is making excellent progress in scaling-up manufacturing and the first batches of
product have been delivered to Primerdesign’s Southampton site for final assembly. In addition,
the Directors have taken the decision to increase the level of output contracted with BioType,
Page 2 of 3
which, combined with the capacity from Southampton, will enable the Company to produce more
than 4 million tests per month.
Also manufacturing capability as per last news from NCYT attached
https://www.sharecast.com/news/aim-bulletin/novacyt-increases-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-test--7380946.html
Only 2m tests per month .. but lots of scale... has there been additional detail on scalable manufacturing volumes?
Researchers out there please advise gents.
Yep! FatherTed1 - that’s the sort of figures I was coming up with but I kept thinking I must be going off track somewhere. 1.5b mcap ???? Someone tell us are we right or wrong ?
I’m pretty new to this filling time whilst ‘day job’ is on hold! Looking at the path and likely window.. there is a strong likelihood that others will develop test that are equally proficient.. Avacta for one looks to be tracking give their recent RNS.. the window is immediate and governments will be ordering now as I see this.
We still haven’t seen any production partnerships save for the RNS end March in U.K... we haven’t heard what the manufacturing capability is, AStZ have said they will supply the reagents.. have I missed what GSK’s part is in the partnership?
On a basic commercial basis this HAS to be a takeover ... I’ve seen numerous models based on Sales / costs per test / EBITDA and marcap... but the PE would be very hard to pin as the circumstances are pretty unique.. feels dotcom and think of a number.
If I was looking to acquire this business I would get very close, assess key fundamentals / IP/ pipeline and lock in key people/ look at sales figures / orders and get a bid in before they come out to market. Which makes the window all ways around a very short one.
I’ve read that the test are priced at c £8.50 per test, margin in that unsure... 18m tests currently ordered as per last RNS and pre JV/WHO announcements.
On sales of £100m (conservative) UK alone will need over 50m to test the population
100m a£8.5 - turnover £850m EBIT at £2 profit per test £200m PE of 8( very, very conservative) gives a marcap if £1.6Bn ( 68m shares ) and a share price c£23 give or take..???
Re the spike this surely was a leak of information and someone building a huge holding very quickly also to trigger auto positions re selling price?
The more informed out there please feel free to educate / correct me... cheers Ted
Jordan427 - I try not to get too carried away with myself with these things (comes from too many wrong decisions in the past I think) but I’ve got to admit the future here does look amazing I nearly bought in a couple of weeks ago but decided against it. Yesterday I bought in twice one for my sipp and one for my isa both relatively smallish sums but nonetheless I’m still now a holder even if I do regret sitting in the fence the other week. I usually work out what I consider to be an acceptable % return the day I buy in ...... I really can’t with this I have no flipping idea when to exit here!
IMO we are still cheap. Ignoring the share price which is now approaching £4 a share (which sounds a lot for an AIM company) we need to remember there are only a tiny number of shares in issue (68m), giving us a market cap of £250m. Reagents and manufacturing are obviously the main bottleneck we have, and hopefully now that we're alongside GSK and AZN, we're able to ramp up production.
News of further manufacturing agreements in other countries would propel us to new heights. Can you imagine if we have manufacturing agreements in dozens of countries all producing our product to meet the global demand for testing?
By end of year if we have a £250m profit (which could be rather conservative, depending on how things pan out), do we really think our MCap will be anything like £250m? Our EPS would be £3.67, which at our current levels gives us a P/E of 1. So even applying a low P/E ratio of 8, that gives us a share price of £30. Frightening really!