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To see our friends in The Midlands all sorted.
We'll be making our way off to The Glassworks for our Sunday lunch (and a few scoops of the good stuff) while we are there.
Had to stay at a Premier Inn, but they do serve a good drop of chilled Hobgoblin Gold on draft.
The things I do to help our shares. I hope my efforts are appreciated :-) :-):-).
OK interweb people
In the interests of 'full disclosure' I have set a purchase order
Looking for a small retrace...if you could oblige me please that would be nice...otherwise I have probably missed this entry point
Kind regards
Prostetnic Vogon Jeltz ( Jimbob ) the Jimster
Supercharger
Yes I like CpG too
Thank you for your thoughts on pub trade recovery
Kind regards
Jim
Will think on it
If we have 1500 from June, say even 700 open now. Say on avge 25 customers a day (most likely far more). £25 spent? 25 x 25 x 700 = say 437,500 takings a day, that will double from June.
Even Ralph F - reported recently that many pubs have reported in with increased sales on what they even anticipated so once Holiday makers work out that there are some great places to holiday in the Uk the summer should this year be far better than most with an increased client base. With good weather coming from the end of next week the next qtrs figures should make far better reading.
I have holdings also in Compass and Whitbread to make the most of any further unlocking from July.
Yep...thanks for your replies so far....appreciated
I personally have ethical issues with 'shorters' can't accept making money to bring stock down is a nice way to be
My attitude is...pile in on a trough to level it out a bit and stop a crash...gracefully pull out again on a rise...leaving it to others to make long term profits
Where I am on Marstons is that I worry about the balance sheet...and thats fundamental to all types of trading
But
I really like the brand for lots of reasons
The biggest being that it is visible at the supermarkets
Thats it for today...enjoy whats left of the weekendy end
Kind regards
Jimbo
Good points sharperite.
It is good to see some more positive points from someone willing to invest like me in Mars. I regret there are two of three on here who probably work from the same address trying to pull down this share so they have either shorted or have sold off and want a lower entry point. Not worth listening to unless you look at it like I do now they actually work for me!
Your words are true and what anyone normal would expect. I can see what with the weather we have been having of late which lets face it has been over cast for too long will soon change for the better, and Marstons always do better in a nice hot summer! Lots to look forward to here. Many analysts have said recently they expect this share once it gets up and running to be a £1.60 share perhaps £2. So I am topping up on the falls. I suppose I should be thanking the three negative amigo's really as last year they made me a fortune. Good luck.
777Jimster, some excellent points shading to the negative on most but true none the less, as an alternative point of view I would suggest the following, 1) Pubs now open and trading and it is down to the competance of the landlord/tennant/manager to grow the business in conjunction with Marstons. 2) In house entertainment in the form of the Euros, Test matches, Wimbledon, etc will attract a solid audience. What is to stop local pubs having more live entertainment as well ? 3) Price structure has increased and as long as it does not overprice itself and keeps at a reasonable level then people will use the facilities. 4) Food is generally acceptable and again reasonably priced which attracts families 5)Accomodation will play an increasingly larger part in the fortunes of Marstons and as yet is a partly unknown yet a positive
My perception is that Marsto ns will be around £1.10 by October given a reasonably decent summer which if correct gives a return on the prescent price of 22o/o not withstanding any dividends ( which I do not expect! For me a BUY FOR THE SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM.
Fairdealer
Appreciate your well structured thoughts
As you surmise I like to trade but only pick companies with a decent expectation of a long term future
I have been in and out here a few times recently... And like marstons
Despite the points we have discussed I will come back in at a suitable entry point
Kind regards
Jim
Jimster, looks as though you have answered your own question.
Your investment strategy is not clear but suspect you like to trade.
Long term Investors will be a little more circumspect in their evaluation of the company's future prospects.
The debt as you observe is is a big issue. How the company is going to reduce significantly by 2024 is a hard target to achieve. It is possible by 2024 our 40% holding in CMBC will be Zilch and the resultant consideration will help reduce debt.
Recent history does not add confidence. The JV proceeds have not reduced debt as much as expected.
Supermarket sales have helped cash flow, however margins through these retailers are wafer thin.
The biggest asset now is the Pub/Hospitality Estate, which will be revalued in July. That valuation may be a God-send,.
We will see a huge increase in footfall these next 6 months, the unknown is will it last?
Some of us here will remember the SP at 125-130p when a 6+% div. was payed. It is going to be a long time before a return to Dividend.
Unlike other company's within the sector, MARS went into the Pandemic with big debts. Fullers bolstered their finances and are moving into High Quality Accomodation. Whitbread raised £1billion last summer to see them through this disaster. Even M&B raised funds recently. Apart from selling the Brewery and raising cash, MARS have invested in a Welsh Estate, basically as a Tenant. The wisdom of this move is yet to be seen. What we do know , Brain's, a Long established Company were in trouble and could not make a go of it. It is interesting to note Mars have their own Welsh Estate and yet savings which could be achieved incorporating the Brains Pubs, is not being done. There is an overlap of Managers serving both Estates.
If a Trader, there are one or 2 here who you will spot, the dips and rises will probably suit your strategy.
As with all stock investments, never invest more than you are prepared to lose.
AIMO, DYOR, GLA
Hello again Marston People
Heres to hoping that everyon continues well
Looking for an entry point here....opinions ( of all persuasions ) appreciated
And likely to bring some of my colleagues with me if the prognosis is upbeat :)
issues:
1. Massive debt
No getting away from the fundamentals I'm afraid
How long can the company last with current cash burn ?
Context ( medium-turn ) buy/hold scenario
2. Pub trade
My opinion is that pubs are kindah done now...pricing themselves out of the beer swilling market...my generation don't bother anymore...and young people don't drink Marstons ?
3. Supermarkets have been propping Marstons up...and don't see any reason that should change ?
Why do you think the balance sheets would change dramatically in the near - medium future ?
OK thats it and appreciate any input that is ((( informative ) u ( entertaining u ( humourous ))) n ( offensive ))
Kind regards
The Jimster
@ Barchid
As you say, its still early doors yet. I know that a lot of pubs are doing well with people heading to the pub on their days off and after work etc.
With the 1st weekend of being able to go inside the pub coming up, I rather fancy that all pubs (ours and everyone else's) are going to get battered over the weekend. Happy days.
I have been out eating and drinking in the north east the pub trade is well up and people spending big
Peltata
As you know from previous posts I live in Docklands and definitely the restaurants which have reopened are not as busy as I thought they'd be in the first week of starting up again.
Pubs busy but not like last autumn just before they closed again, and tourists are an endangered species at present.
Still early days yet but nothing like it was in "eat out to help out" times.
Whilst I see pubs with a healthy number of customers given the circumstances, l can’t help but notice the lack of tourists that do come to enjoy a pub lunch or dinner. Maybe I notice it more being in London but places like oxford, Stratford upon Avon etc can’t be too different. Hope us locals make up for it seeing as going abroad is a hassle at present.
Oh dear has Billy Smart given you the sack? Never mind Longleat have a vacancy in the Rhino enclosure for a S*** shoveler, but be careful they a dangerous horn at the front. That's the opposite end to the arse.
Did you realise Marstons are no longer a Brewer?
Latest newsline pub sector news.
Marston's, which is the two century old brewer of Pedigree, Hobgoblin and Lancaster Bomber beers, said that approximately 1,000 pubs have reopened across England, Wales and Scotland since April, and early trends show sales in like-for-like locations running at approximately 80% of pre-COVID-19 levels.
Also goes on to say with the headline they expect to see in fact increased sales with new customers after June I suppose the remaining 500 pubs that are currently remaining closed will re-open to easily make up for the 20%. Great news for shareholders NOT so good for the negative shorters.
The shorts will be very disappointed it is looking like all 1500 pubs will be open from 21st June - Boris talking on BBC National news.
Mind you the "official short tracker site only has 0.70% of any shorts disclosed - so they can't have many shorted any way? Maybe their £200 Card allowance, ha.ha.
@ Fairdealer.
Interesting points. Definitely food for thought.
barchid, trent,
we will never know how far Platinum were prepared to go. I do beleive given tough negotiating an offer much above 105 would have been achieved. The problem as I see it there were some big Ego's involved, Brain's chairman who was desparate to prop up his company which had every signs of going under. RF played his cards to quick, possibly because there is/was some bonhomme, he did not want to see a fellow Exec ending up at the Labour Exchange. Anyone who believes he (RF) played a blinder must be an Ostrich. Had he waited could have picked up the Welsh conglomerate an far better terms. I believe RF was head-banged into swiftly completing the Brains deal as Platinum were pushing at the door, possibly with Institutional investors already on board. It is interesting, both major players in the Brain's transaction, John Rhys , resigned almost as soon as the deal was completed and now RF is taking a bow.
Would not be surprised that Institutions were unhappy how events were managed.
Trent we cannot be sure but any take over does not mean existing PI's have no choice. New shares can be offered in the new entity.
The difficulty for many of us here is Div which topped up pensions and now not and unlikely to return for some time. I will be amazed if the loan note waivers do not include an undertaking not to pay divs until debt is at a given level.
AIMO DYOR
@Barchid.
I'm not so sure Platinum were ever gonna offer anywhere near £1.20 for this. I can't fault them for trying it on with what they did. Not really. Nothing ventured and all that. But there's no way in Hell I would have sold them my albeit small holding for such a derisory amount.
I just don't see them coming back with any improved offer worth considering any time soon though to be fair.
do8erman
A very fair analysis in my view.
One thing is for sure, dividends will be a long time in coming & this was in a lot of PI's high yield portfolios 15 months ago !
One of my big niggles with the BoD is why they turned Platinum down flat ?
That was a way of preserving their own jobs, I guess, when in reality they are paid by us to look after our interests.
Who is to say Platinum might have paid 120p or so if it was an agreed offer ?
fairdealer
You must be psychic ! One of my long term favourite pubs is the Mayflower on the Thames, which is where the Pilgrims boat docked before going on to Plymouth.
Not a Marstons though, sadly....
thinking about getting back in here as a long term hold, but still feel its a bit of a gamble and don't share the huge optimism of most, even at 89p range. mainly as their future is completely out of their hands at present - there is no way i could invest knowing that if the indian variant takes hold and boris pulls the plug on june openings and we go into yet another lockdown of sorts then. well, who knows... but i wouldn't want to be invested if/when that news broke. so i'll continue to get splinters in my bum and sit on the fence taking the risk it may fly back to 100p + in the next few weeks / or of it dropping like a stone back to the 75p area on release of any bad news which will impact openings and revenue. if the later, i'll take the gamble with the hope of long term recovery in 36 months time.
Barchid, hell the Police are going to have their hands full! Maybe HMG will recruit another band of Pilgrims who will either arrest or escort valued Patrons home.
The enforcement of Law and Order must/will cost another fortune. When are we likely to escape this quagmire.
Maybe Robinson Crusoe had a better idea!!
@Barchid.
I'm bang up for that. I'll even leave my discount card at home! I don't think my liver will thank me but all for a good cause and all that.....
That said, I'm hoping to see our friends in Stourbridge within the next couple of weeks (fingers crossed) so I think that a trip over to The Glassworks will be in order. It's a great pub. Good food and a well kept pint.