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Full discolosure
I took a scalp this afternoon again...but I'm still in pretty deep here
I'm positive about MARS future...bumpy market at the moment
If ( what you do works )
Then: keep doing it
Else
Dump the leveraged stocks...and whatever you do...do not short
Have a fantastic weekendy end and resume the fray next week
Kind Regards
The Tinster
Retail sales in the UK fell for the fourth month in a row in August, but people spent more time eating and drinking in bars and restaurants.
Doubled my position here this afternoon...I still believe in Beer :)
Heres to hoping we are near the botton for a while
Mars is now officially my largest holding...eheeeemmmmm
Kind Regards
The Jimster
Co-incidentally visited my relatively local pub last night, who have a very high reputation for food. Admittedly it was a Mid-week, but the Pub was virtually empty of drinkers by just after 9.00. we were the last clients left in the Restruant, checking out just before 9.30pm. Pre pandemic would use this pub/restrauant often, since lifting of lockdown not so much, and not during August as in a Tourist area.
Over the years had got to know many of the staff who seem to have disappeared, they are mostly local people and not the occasional summer job employees.
At check out I spoke to the manageress who stated since the end of summer visitors ( just over a week ago) restruarant covers have dropped significantly, and local patronage has not returned to pre-pandemic levels.
On the staffing front a number of waiters/waitresses, who I knew by name and had worked at the pub for years, have found alternative employment, they have rents to pay etc, and could not live with the uncertainty the hospitality industry currently provides.
This is not a Marston's Pub and is only a further record of my experience, which may or not be replicated in other areas..
Daave how does this equate with your on going experience?
Randomly I just popped over as Mars is still on one of my watchlists even though I’m not currently invested.
We’d need to know more about the site in question, the description of ‘manager’ initially leads me to think that the site is a marstons managed site, but that doesn’t seem particularly likely - the chances of a managed site not having a budget for decorations at Christmas seems incredibly unlikely..
I’d assume that it is a ‘low cost entry’ scheme site, as the ‘tenant’ is trying their toe in the water to score some free dec’s….
In 2019, I spent way in excess of £1000 on new decorations, trees, lights, tinsel… my pub looked bare… it literally costs £1000’s to get the rooms done to a high standard…
As these types of ‘shared income’ sites are probably treading water at the minute - I’d take this with a pinch of salt, there’s hundreds of these type of sites and some of the operators have other means of income, some however don’t and will indeed be struggling.
This is the first post i came to, I’ll have a poke around..
I can’t wait to see people’s take on the employee situation!
They is no recovery as the barrow boys in the city have no idea about how this country
I live in a small town just outside Greater Manchester. I moved here from London about six years ago. During that time seven new licensed premises have opened and just one closed, while in my former North London suburb pubs were generally closing down.
Therefore, over-supply of licensed premises may play a role here, hence rather challenging trading in most places.
Marstons share price performance has been very disappointing recently, as has MAB and many other pub companies. Market doesn't seem to think that these companies are worth more right now.
I am holding on to my shares as I don't sell at a loss. Having said that, I'm hoping for some sort of recovery soon (but I;m not convinced).
Interesting to note Berenberg have given Carlsberg a double downgrade to " Sell".
Glad I sold out a couple of months back at 96p...was tempted to hold, but think there's more downside as the autumn covid numbers rise and possible restrictions back in place.
Barchid, I tend to agree. Called at a well known Marstons Pub in the South West on sunday evening. The Restruant was roped off for around 10 tables ( full capacity is about 30) Could not get a meal. Asked the " manager" who stated only half the number of staff he would normally have, are on duty. Many Europeans have not returned.
This seems to be the story I have been hearing generally in the South West. Some Pubs/ Restruants are only opening limited hours. Maybe the North has a flush of workers?
Sadanby
Interesting your take on occupancy rates in the North, certainly in London where I live the picture is more a glass half empty than half full, reason being that staff issues seem to prevail. 2 locals to us where pre covid we'd enjoy going for a few drinks & a plate or three, one has no staff to open their kitchen & the other (a gastro pub) is on a very short menu due to staff shortages.
Neither are Mars pubs but it gives you an idea of the issues pubs are facing down here.
A report in City a.m. today said that "City Pubs group" were doing well so perhaps where we live is not a true reflection, breeds caution though.
Not too disappointing even at the current 83p, having sold a nice chunck at an average of 121p (end of 2019 - early 2020) and then bought back in at 47p, whilst it was a shame that it's dropped back from scaping 100p in July one really shouldn't complain at the current 83p. It will go back up to over 100p in the not too, too distant future.
I don’t know where live I live in the north and I can tell you now people are out drinking eating and spending a lot o money in bars and restaurants so it looks like the barrow boys are on this board
Ironically, many pub shares were higher during the lockdown than now.
Right now, Masrstons share price is disappointing. I've been adding at about 80p, my average price being just below 87p. Having said that, it looks like a long way to break even, yet alone to reach 100p.
Equally, MAB is quite disappointing right now. After selling just over half of my holding @ 288p (with a decent profit), I feel it's too early to start buying back.
I think Christmas period will be crucial. It looks like people are not going out like they used to at the moment. My guess is that there's much less disposable money available than many people think. Employment is not great in many sectors and those ones that are currently recruiting typically have low paid jobs. At the same time, prices are going up like crazy.
Daave
Not sure if you still watch this board but wondered what your thoughts were on Leppington's posts, on the face of it they would appear to be trying to emulate Dicken's character Mr Gradgrind which long term can't work ?
????????????????????????????????So as much as we know some people don't like talking Christmas too early .... WE DO!!!
We want to be as festive as we can this year as we get to spend the festive period together. As a new manager Ive arrived with no decorations on site and wondered if you lovely locals would like to help me tinsel up the place for you all!
I'm looking for anyone who has any spare decorations in their loft or if you're anything like my mum and change the colour scheme every year we would absolutely appreciate any donations towards our Xmas!! Let's make our Xmas together a great one
My old pubs new manager begging for decs for xmas. Really?????
Good to see 2 directors buying shares at 80p , 1 with 24,000 and the other with 20,000 .
Always good to see them putting their own money into the business and must think 80p ish is very cheap.
Of course businesses must be run to benefit Shareholders and stakeholders. Landlords are an integral part of a well run/organised company and the image they display either promotes or demotes the Brand. One suspects Marstons want totally managed Houses and Landlords are an inconvenience. This is dangerous territory as Landlords have a vested interest to provide a good service whereas managed Houses rely on casual staff,( we are seeing the result many hospitality Co's are having to manage.
The Beldale Landlords were given 3 months notice and even though they recieved much support are about to vacate.
I guess Mars has to run their business the way they are advised to to make the biggest profits and keep their shareholders happy, and that does sometimes means people losing out at some stage.
But as Tenants do you not have time agreements saying that niether side can walk or be put out without say a 6 months agreement in your contracts.
Very strange if the contract doesn't cover this. best of luck.
Leppington do you mean they have upped your rent, cost of beer supplied, a combination of both or some other cost that has been levied? Do they require access to your P&L?
consider this are used to take around 125,000 a year in profit over and above my 20% turnover money. The bully me out the 20% Of turnover pays for stuff £225,000 profit share becomes says I feel they are doing it this way in an attempt to make more money at the cost of the retailer
fairdealer
Agree, hard faced business tactics make regular punters run for the hills in what should be a friendly social atmosphere of the local pub.
So sad that they seem to be rowing in an opposite direction to their customers.
The actions taken by Marstons does nothing but harm the company's image. Could the company be in desparation stakes? It seems very odd to evict tenants, and one suspects there are others, who have worked hard to build a customer base in a pub with Local interest. One can only guess Marstons want to build an estate that is uniform throughout it's portfolio. All very well but many customers like a pub with character.
they are good at that. i know loads that have had the misfortune . Me included.
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19542821.bedale-couple-forced-quit-green-dragon-pub/?ref=ar