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From my post 5th August it seems de ja vu "Marston's moving up good, but also watch Rolls Royce as I said before when it fell on death ears. Now in profit for the 1st Half by a Billion Squids. However good to see most of mine are up today - life is good!
Whitbread up, Compass too. I can now even afford to full up the Silver Spur with fuel, ha.ha and leave the Tesler on the grid! Ha.ha" -todays edit "no fuel out there now-so the Bentley is back in the garage and the Tesla comes out into the Sun as nothing else changes as RR heads for the skies! Good to see Barchild & unfairtrader have solved the gas crises for some serious Beer sales over this late Indian summer w/end!"
Going through the last couple of days
Hi Barchid. Yes, good to see you too mate. I hope you are well. I'm always hovering in the background mate. I'll always be here contributing. I've re-discovered my inner book worm and have got back into James Patterson's Alex Cross novels. I'd read a good 9 of them about a decade of so ago, and got back into a load that he had done which I'd not known he'd done, so got through another 8 of 16 that he'd done. All good reads.
I'd recommend Pop goes the Weasel, the big had wolf & London Bridges to you if Psycho killers getting caught are your thing. All are good reads.
Love it when Press/People talk about my work like they have an idea what's going on.
@Fairdealer20 - point of clarity which many mistake - Its Teesside with 2 s. The locals get upset at mis-spelling.
CF have been importing Ammonia to keep its Nitric Acid Production ongoing due to downstream customer requirements. I've not driven past the site for a while where the Prill Tower is located but quite often there are stock piles of fertiliser. It would be interesting if stocks were high contributing to the plant shutdown. Government may take more interest now knowing the significance although I doubt it.
Good to see you back on here, as far as not getting too attached to stocks the old adage "it's never as good as it looks & it's never as bad as it looks" is a safe one to hang onto.
Cetainly hospitality & transport appear to be in favour but the staff issues are pretty bad.
I was having a meeting just off the Kings Road, Chelsea yesterday, Kings Road was heaving with people (Chelsea flower show was on) but the pub we went to for lunch was very quiet with just a manager & 2 staff, reduced menu of course.
So it is a bit of a chicken & egg situation at present, if they find more staff will they find more customers ?
Sit tight & wait is probably all we can do.
Indeed. It's just that MARS, alongside SGC are 2 that I really like. I know that you're not supposed to get attached and all of that but still. The jump in their sp yesterday is welcome news. Interesting few days/weeks ahead there I think.
@ Fairdealer. Indeed. But I'm not sure how I feel about it to be fair.
Stagecoach, like Marston's is one that I like holding. I know that you're not supposed to get attached to shares you buy into, but sometimes you just do, don't you.
I wouldn't get yourselves too excited just yet.
The irony is the Factory at Billingham ( Teeside) was developed by ICI ( Imperial Chemical Industries) to produce, amongst other chemicals, Ammonium Nitrate a plant fertilizer. CO2 is a by product of Nitrate production. The factory was sold to Foreign competitors 10 or so years ago.
It seems APHA (Animal, Plant Health Agency, a Dept of Government) have warned Central Government the certainty of much lower crop yields next year, should Nitrates be restricted. This will ultimately threaten food supplies, in 2022/23, particularly Cereals including Barley which is used to produce Beer.
Good news which hopefully will get the SP back to a realistic level.
It seems that NEX have shown a bit of interest in SGC, (one of my other holdings). Never saw that coming.
The government has struck a deal with a US firm that supplies 60% of the UK's carbon dioxide to restart production following food shortages warnings.
CF Industries stopped work at two of its fertiliser factories, which also produce CO2, due to soaring gas prices.
Carbon dioxide is widely used in the food industry, including in brewing and the packaging process for meat and salads to prolong shelf life.
It is not clear yet what incentives the government have offered the firm.
It could take as long as three days for the plants to start producing CO2 again at its plants in Cheshire and Stockton-on-Tees.
The move comes after one food industry group warned that consumers could start noticing gaps on supermarket shelves within days if there was no intervention in its supply.
Carbon dioxide, produced at the two plants as a by-product, is used when slaughtering pigs and chickens to stun them.
The problem is CO2 is used in a vast number of applications, adding fizz to bottled beer, cider, soft drinks etc. Many pubs have long since removed the Beer Engine and replaced with gas pressurised system to dispense draft.
This is an issue Daave could add his knowledge and experience.
Finally some good news
The Preston Brook wharehouse set up is getting some good press
Surely putting the CO2 in beer is better than putting it in the atmosphere ?
Have a great day
.....cause beer supply problems, catastrophe! I could live on whatever food is available but how do you substitute beer in your diet?
The market can not work this stock out so it will go down then up poor barrow boys don’t know what to do
I took a scalp this afternoon again...but I'm still in pretty deep here
I'm positive about MARS future...bumpy market at the moment
If ( what you do works )
Then: keep doing it
Dump the leveraged stocks...and whatever you do...do not short
Have a fantastic weekendy end and resume the fray next week
Retail sales in the UK fell for the fourth month in a row in August, but people spent more time eating and drinking in bars and restaurants.
Doubled my position here this afternoon...I still believe in Beer :)
Heres to hoping we are near the botton for a while
Mars is now officially my largest holding...eheeeemmmmm
Co-incidentally visited my relatively local pub last night, who have a very high reputation for food. Admittedly it was a Mid-week, but the Pub was virtually empty of drinkers by just after 9.00. we were the last clients left in the Restruant, checking out just before 9.30pm. Pre pandemic would use this pub/restrauant often, since lifting of lockdown not so much, and not during August as in a Tourist area.
Over the years had got to know many of the staff who seem to have disappeared, they are mostly local people and not the occasional summer job employees.
At check out I spoke to the manageress who stated since the end of summer visitors ( just over a week ago) restruarant covers have dropped significantly, and local patronage has not returned to pre-pandemic levels.
On the staffing front a number of waiters/waitresses, who I knew by name and had worked at the pub for years, have found alternative employment, they have rents to pay etc, and could not live with the uncertainty the hospitality industry currently provides.
This is not a Marston's Pub and is only a further record of my experience, which may or not be replicated in other areas..
Daave how does this equate with your on going experience?
Randomly I just popped over as Mars is still on one of my watchlists even though I’m not currently invested.
We’d need to know more about the site in question, the description of ‘manager’ initially leads me to think that the site is a marstons managed site, but that doesn’t seem particularly likely - the chances of a managed site not having a budget for decorations at Christmas seems incredibly unlikely..
I’d assume that it is a ‘low cost entry’ scheme site, as the ‘tenant’ is trying their toe in the water to score some free dec’s….
In 2019, I spent way in excess of £1000 on new decorations, trees, lights, tinsel… my pub looked bare… it literally costs £1000’s to get the rooms done to a high standard…
As these types of ‘shared income’ sites are probably treading water at the minute - I’d take this with a pinch of salt, there’s hundreds of these type of sites and some of the operators have other means of income, some however don’t and will indeed be struggling.
This is the first post i came to, I’ll have a poke around..
I can’t wait to see people’s take on the employee situation!
They is no recovery as the barrow boys in the city have no idea about how this country
I live in a small town just outside Greater Manchester. I moved here from London about six years ago. During that time seven new licensed premises have opened and just one closed, while in my former North London suburb pubs were generally closing down.
Therefore, over-supply of licensed premises may play a role here, hence rather challenging trading in most places.
Marstons share price performance has been very disappointing recently, as has MAB and many other pub companies. Market doesn't seem to think that these companies are worth more right now.
I am holding on to my shares as I don't sell at a loss. Having said that, I'm hoping for some sort of recovery soon (but I;m not convinced).
Interesting to note Berenberg have given Carlsberg a double downgrade to " Sell".
Glad I sold out a couple of months back at 96p...was tempted to hold, but think there's more downside as the autumn covid numbers rise and possible restrictions back in place.