Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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An internal valuation by Anglo in 2011 put Amapa's value at $1.5 billion, meaning Anglo's 70 percent stake would be worth at least $1 billion
KDNC stake will be between 27 and 49%
Lol bannor certainly not at you. I reckon your the most balanced poster here.
Dale 02.
When shipments start and money comes in from amapa I think 40p reasonable.
However when main mine opens and they start shopping from there this could very easily command a mcap of £200 mill- depending on various factors
That was an ironic LoL. Not sure how you denote that on here...
You are right @Bannor, and everyone would do well to listen to your analysis of my style: I typically post positively, highlighting what I see are the positives about a share, the what might be's - not dwelling perhaps as much as I would if I were writing impartially. It's a conscious decision I've made to generally post positively or not at all.
As to the $15m rather than $4.5m. My take is that $4.5m would have been enough to block the re-domicile, the remainder was to enable the takeover which never happened and we returned a large portion we never spent, and left the rest hanging round our necks constricting tighter and tighter. LoL :-)
LoL ... sorry MrJ.... don't know whether that was aimed at or with me !!! not to worry either is fine anyways :-))
Absolutely unbelievable how blinkered some people are. Now what was it mermillions used to say
@Obs .... that's one of the many differences between you & me .... you think the BoD have had a reasonable plan & know what they're doing hence why against every play they've made so far you've argued it's virtues, values & got your magic calculator out to produce fabulous numbers when anyone has voiced concern or doubt... whereas I (& a few others I think) just believe they're a bunch of chancers using other people's money to play & pay themselves with, we had a couple of fantastic JV's & a reasonable holding in BCN when we had 3bn shares in issue .... we now have the equivalent of 12bn+ shares with more to come & have sold out of BCN at significant loss.
If they had needed a loan to protect themselves against BCN's plans or actions that was clearly achievable by a loan of £4.5M to purchase shares at £1each & yet they borrowed 3 times that spent on shares/projects they've either sold or are selling at a loss.
I don't know the circumstances around how we originally got involved in Amapa but whether by luck or effort & despite my initial reservations it could be the rescue/making of us & pave the way for us to pay our way &/or hold onto valuable JV's until they're desired by others more than we need sell them.
Shame on you Mr C for thinking it was the BoD's fault the SP here declined 90+% crikey you'll be blaming them next for saying something that may have led to BCN's decline & difficulties!!..... poor them all they've proven so far is they can't pick a share to invest in any better than me....... the success (hopefully) of Amapa won't change my opinion much ....
That should’ve said rough (Sp)and not RNS
Mr C. Stop blaming BOD; it's your mistake.
Would it be possible to calculate a predicted or rough RNS lf what MCap should be worth if good news regarding Amapa and shipments was to occur?
When EMH was in the 80's had my best ever opportunity to take profits and didnt, which has changed me now as an invester forever..I now use the old 'bird in the hand' principle...
Maybe Amapa IS the turning point, but we have spent years allowing this incompetent board learning the hard way how not to do things AT OUR EXPENSE ! Last week I mage my first ever profit from this share, I managed to top-slice my cheapest tranch of KDNC shares 30,000 @ 28% profit - never thought I would see the day -- but the next lot are going to need the BOD to do something else very right !
Nope as far as I'm concerned our dire mess is wholly of our own Mingases making, as for Tesla wasn't you who once said something along the lines of they wanted to secure gold for the price of peanuts?
Reminds me of the pictures from Sonora being stored in Peanut Bags. Anyone remember ?
@TC-14 Yes, that would be the silver bullet outcome. A bank consortium with ready finance, although
no doubt wanting an equity share of the project, would be my best partner option.
Would be reinvesting then, albeit at higher sp than today, but a very much de-risked proposition.
Let us hope a common ground negotiation with DEV can be achieved.
@Bannor - I'm pretty certain it was the falling Lithium price, and accompanying market sentiment, which messed up BCN's CapEx raise, and prior to that plans with NextView. I'm referring to BCN's and EMH's falling share price. Not our JV's. Rising or at least steady Lithium prices would have held up our market cap and the $15m of debt wouldn't have been such a millstone - we had a taste of it when BCN went to 140p and EMH into the 80's. Now they're both pretty screwed at the current lithium price, EMH more so than BCN if I recall correctly. I didn't predict these lithium prices. I'm sure you didn't too, and our Bod certainly didn't, given our (stalled) go alone Lithium plays in Argentina and Australia. Fortunately (for now!) we pivoted to iron ore.
Lithium will recover, and hopefully both EMH and BCN + our JV's will benefit from this. Yes in medium hindsight we shouldn't have borrowed $15m to try to takeover BCN to fulfil our Tesla commitments, but in long hindsight, i.e. from now, if we'd have succeeded we might be selling Lithium to Tesla today and both BCN and KDNC shareholders would be less angry with their respective BoD's for IMHO something no-one invested at the time predicted - falling lithium prices...
I'm comfortable we have different views and interpret history differently. Diversity is good, right? :-)
Ob.
can you be sure that said banks... like our future jv partner indo sino... are not part... or intending to be part of the amapa project going forward... if it is successfully demonstrated that the amapa project is recoverable... they may hold out until after we have completed the recommissioning studies... which may seem strange... but it’s is in our interest if they did that too... mitigating the risks as much as possible... more than was intended... and allowing strategic funding to be raised... for the strategic investment into the project... much later in the de-risked valuation curve than we would have done under your command...
@Ob .... unlike you I don't believe the fluctuation/fall in Li prices had as much to do with our own dire collapse as the loan & the BoD's actions .... the markets haven't included much of anything 're Sonora in our SP for yonks since the mining timetable & of course the farcical takeover attempt of BCN .... you say Merger!!! only the cretinous minds of our BoD &the former puppetmaster could have considered something so hairbrained & ridiculous a viable course of action.
Nope as far as I'm concerned our dire mess is wholly of our own Mingases making, as for Tesla wasn't you who once said something along the lines of they wanted to secure gold for the price of peanuts?
@TC-14 Great we have all in place to go by Q3, on the ore shipment as per RNS.
My fear, however, is that the bank consortium who currently hold a charge over the Amapa mine assets,
will use every legal weapon to protect their interests. To lose their case will mean a write off of millions
of dollars. Not sure what ,if any, appeals are available but I am sure they would explore all avenues.
For all our sakes, I hope I am wrong to be a little pessimistic on the time scale.
frankie... page 13... they’re actually numbered so you can list them out... if the graphic isn’t clear...
LoL @Bannor. Yes, that'll be my HOWEVER. Falling lithium prices knocked us for six. $15m wouldn't have been a problem otherwise with an increasing market cap. If I would have thought lithium prices had a chance of retreating back to $7.5/kg from where they were at the time I'd have been out of KDNC like a shot. Sadly not... Now if only we'd managed to "merge" with BCN in order to force them to fulfil our Tesla commitments, we could have been producing by now. LoL.
for which we recently put up the cash to allow the contracts to be placed... to mobilise the ore shipments... all in full knowledge of the safe working practices procedures and restrictions in place... and requirements for the safe working conditions now necessary under covid-19 lockdown and social distancing rules... http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=311428203573948715 ...
@TC me either not shipping, not (necessarily 20%) but Amapa related..... unless of course they're brave enough to publish 2019 accounts first!!
"My understanding is that it is quite reasonable for a company of our nature to have a certain fraction of the company's NPV as debt, perhaps 20-30%, which we can use to leverage our investments whilst minimising equity dilution. HOWEVER. As we know should our capital backing this and consequent ability to repay shrink sufficiently that this percentage debt increases substantially, a whole world of pain can ensue, as was the case during the past several years amongst a backdrop of falling lithium prices heavily impacting our lithium plays (primarily Sonora and Cinovec)."..........
........ nothing to do with the ridiculously unnecessarily high $15M loan from dodgy source(s) - that for the most part was put to no good use, by a rubbish board at the behest in many instances of a slimeball & has now since been sold at significant losses everywhere it was invested & remains as a morphed millstone round our necks to this day currently then??
@Ivy: "If we had sufficient cash to cover outgoings and withstand any further delay I would be more relaxed."
This is good discussion as it's giving me insight to why some were selling during a period I was buying - due to differences of opinion.
My understanding is that it is quite reasonable for a company of our nature to have a certain fraction of the company's NPV as debt, perhaps 20-30%, which we can use to leverage our investments whilst minimising equity dilution. HOWEVER. As we know should our capital backing this and consequent ability to repay shrink sufficiently that this percentage debt increases substantially, a whole world of pain can ensue, as was the case during the past several years amongst a backdrop of falling lithium prices heavily impacting our lithium plays (primarily Sonora and Cinovec).
Presumably you'll accept that there is an inflexion point where the market cap supporting an equity raise is such that it is more logical to sell assets or raise debt (if possible) than it is to dilute the company? I believe that happened during the period you were advocating a fund raise, and I was advocating we sell assets, and the BoD appeared to agree, and especially so as time went by and the share price reduced, though making you even more adamant that your assessment that we should have raised earlier was correct, and presumably giving you confidence to continue selling believing the BoD to be naive.
In terms of feeling "relaxed", although I certainly wasn't feeling it, I was cognisant that if we abandoned Amapa before we got our 20% we would get back our $2.5m which would be close to repaying all our debt should we want or need to. This gave me confidence to continue buying strongly in the 3's and again in the 5's. Presumably you were still selling?
I hope the above isn't sounding too much like "I was right" - "you were wrong", far from it. In hindsight I too should have sold down from 9p to 3p, and bought back at 3p to 9p - but I never was any good at catching a falling knife! :-)
Also, I've no idea what the share price will do before next news. AIM is too unpredictable!
Ob