The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Experts MBW? .... are these the same or similar 'Experts' predicting values of anywhere between £2.50 & £5 a share for BCN LoL
If you think the assets are worth £1+ as I do, then I am not crying that I bought some at 15 some at 20 some at 30 because I expect them to all turn out to be good investments in the long run, you cannot know what the market will do in the short term but you can know the expected value of the underlying assets and that at some point the value will be realised.
Hence the saying:
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.”
....so am I as it will provide a significant exit or possibly even total ... wouldn't be too unhappy if we got taken over for half that either to be honest.
LoL .... well that answers that question then EVB .... no-one in the employ of the company would be posting whilst the AGM is on going .... or has it wrapped up now? ;-))
Wonder when we'll get the RNS with the results.... :-}
"predictions and spread sheets are an utter waste of time" - until they aren't, I am pleased so few understand how to invest as it gives an enormous advantage to those that do. It is good if you all disagree with me because that is generally the best time to buy, few understand this point (maximum pessimism is the bottom).
Conversely It's an even better buy now at this price, especially given the progress in terms of deals that have been done.
The asset values will be realised one way or another.
mikebe - good post pretty much my sentiments, all their predictions and spread sheets are an utter waste of time and just to keep the dog chewing the bone. Any poster who has kept a strong buy label of their header through such a period of poor performance should be embarrassed for themselves (assuming they are not in the employ of the share in question).
Yes .... Fingers crossed that it's Bacanora/GFL Lithium also feeding the Mexican EV car assembly plants (not just the State owned/run one) ...hence GFL inviting car manufacturers to express an interest .... of course under the origin rules parts used in manufacture that 'originate' in the U.S. & Canada would also be treated as originating when imported into the U.S. /Canada as cars .... so the likes of Ford/Tesla etc could import 'originating' engines, body panels etc into Mexico Duty free & then import finished cars containing lots of lovely Lithium in them duty free as well ..... the only potential complication might be if the cars are manufactured primarily from parts imported into Mexico from outside the USMCA agreement.
Roll on the news ....
Thanks @Bannor, @EV_Bull
https://mexicobusiness.news/automotive/news/vehicle-production-priority-mexicos-lithium-supply-chain
Collaboration between the public and private sector is critical in this sense, to ensure Mexico becomes attractive for the automotive industry. “This (lithium) company can interact or have commercial relations with the automotive industry in the country. It will be an attractive asset to strengthen our industry or the automotive plants installed in Mexico. We will make lithium available to the automotive industry that is manufacturing vehicles and auto parts in Mexico.”
JimB,
In short no Sonoran Lithium would always have been includeable in any trade agreement Mexico has with another country (so also under GSP or any FTA.
In more detail ... USMCA is a free trade agreement providing beneficial rates of duties on 'qualifying' goods' traded between U.S. Canada & Mexico (replaced NAFTA = North American Free Trade Agreement).
To qualify for preferential duty treatment goods traded between the 3 participants must satisfy the rules of Origin & at a basic level to 'automatically qualify' goods must be mined, born, grown or caught in the territorial waters of the exporting country so Sonoran Lithium as a commodity would always have qualified .... on manufactured goods the rules can get quite demanding as manufactured goods often contain goods imported from other 3rd countries (i.e. goods other than U.S /CA /MX) so percentage rules on the permissible limits/quantities have to be calculated to maintain preferential treatment.
These qualification rules apply regardless of the FTA/preference scheme so are not unique to USMCA ... Trade agreements also refer to other rights / activities (such as the labour one in the link)
Bacanora is still a Canadian registered company just Ganfeng own 100% of it, I don't think it changes anything materially.
A question for our legal scholars,
Did Sonora fall under the USMCA agreement prior to todays announcement?
USMCA does have clout as can be seen from the article yesterday on Mexican union membership and workers rights:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-stellantis-mexico-unit-okays-120501118.html
Just wondering if this would have been a deal blocker with any interested parties not that it wasn't going to happen anyway but maybe Ganfeng felt that maintaining the Bacanora connection offered a little more security up until now?
Now I'm sure those going to the AGM would have an interesting day out on the back of an RNS.
Thanks and appreciated EV Bull & Ivybush – I assume that these are answers that most shareholders will be eager to know I’m sure, as we all want progression & perhaps these will be covered in the AGM.
Thanks again and GLA TJ Mac
@TJ_MAC These are questions which should be put to the AGM tomorrow.
I will do so if you wish, provided they are not addressed by the BOD.
Hi TJ, I would expect the MRE this month and the PFS I don't expect to be too long after that but perhaps it will be September now.
Shipping is profitable at current rates but I think not quite as much as we need to pay the banks, if we see $100/dmt for 58% and shipping stays where it is or goes lower then I expect more shipments to occur but I don't believe it is the critical path at the moment, the PFS is far more important.
Morning EV,
Ok good to know, our SP certainly needs to gain some form of impetus or upward momentum soon. Hopefully everything goes our way concerning both Sonora & Amapa. In terms of Amapa, when do you think we are likely to see the MRE and PFS now that July has come & gone… Also, when do you think we are likely to see any form of Iron Ore export shipping out of Santana? GLA TJ Mac
did anyone hold out to the very end…
.... Have to say it's quite a bit of fun sitting back & watching the OBS/EVB positivity tag team though, they'd be right at home in the WWE LoL
..... OMG why the sudden drop in your predicted SP EVB ....
Tres disappointing Tut Tut LoL
So much hidden value to be unlocked in Sonora and Amapa, market needs to see it to believe it but a big opportunity nonetheless.
Sonora JV easily worth more than our entire market cap - market fearful it will be stolen from us somehow.
Amapa - with China looking to get more iron ore from Brazil over Australia and the high grades our mine is capable of it must look very attractive to them, especially now we're planning to (half) load capesize vessels at the port, that's a big game changer for the economics of the project. Peer comparisons show this to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
There could be at least £1 per share between those two projects, looking forward to seeing the Evergreen IPO and for them to start drilling too with Core next door being a billion dollar asset. Market will wake up eventually. PFS might be the catalyst.
Months of silence, thanks @observer842, very interesting timing?
If you haven't seen it, take a look at:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/vpr5w7/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals_asset/
for my go at valuing our 30% Sonora JV from various angles.
"OVERSEAS REGULATORY ANNOUNCEMENT" (August 9, 2022)
http://www.ganfenglithium.com/ir_detail_en/id/2539.html
===[
Recently, the Company received a notice from Shanghai Ganfeng that Shanghai Ganfeng has completed the offer to Bacanora. Shanghai Ganfeng now holds 100% equity interest of Bacanora.
]===
I wonder who might be next...? ;-)