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ITM Power is the senior share. Some major players are share holders.
The only JV is for large electrolysers and is jointly owned with Linde. Linde supply the sales force and certain amount of the project engineering for that work. Given that Linde also sells a large proportion of the hydrogen and is the world's largest gas producer and seller it makes sense for Linde to have a stake i the business. If someone is going to eat your lunch it might as well be you.
I don't see that as a strangle hold.
Anybody know if, as a result of all the JVs, ITM cant be bid for or bought? IE does Linde (or others) have a stranglehold on the ownership of the business? I fear that it does.
I agree -fishy timing here. How come the SP starts tanking two days before the MS downgrade!?
Look we all know this is based on wandering sentiment and that there is no fundamental mathematical law depicting the ratio of achievement to monetary worth. 2 fully-funded Gigafactories? Nope. Worldwide partnership with LINDE which opens an essentially unpredictable number of pipelines and contracts? Nope, we'll just bias toward the percentages per contract and not the pipeline itself precisely because it is unpredictable. That's all it is a base-case. The apparent rush to buy last year because of politicians talking about Green Recoveries from COVID was entirely justified in my view. The parliamentary reviews, the Thwaites glacier melting faster than expected (raises sea levels by 3m), Biden's $4 Trillion stimulus packages, COP 26, it all says to me that this pipeline's diameter will just grow and grow.
Morgan Stanley has been sitting on this ...all typed out and ready for a while..and was just waiting for a planned share dump to put it out....
This smells like a co-ordinated short attack ..deliberately timed
Could all get a little bit doom and gloom when the other analysts reprice their targets from 700/800 down to 400.
Crikey, a 26% downgrade in target price is severe, share price now below the 200 DMA for the first time since April 2019, those are two significant bearish events to occur on the same day...
It is an emerging market where any growth projections will be dubious:
1876: "The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys." — William Preece, British Post Office.
1876: "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication." — William Orton, President of Western Union.
1889: “Fooling around with alternating current (AC) is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever.” — Thomas Edison
1903: “The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty – a fad.” — President of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer, Horace Rackham, not to invest in the Ford Motor Company.
Early predictions were that Henry Ford's horseless carriage was simply a "fad". (Image source: T.... [+]
1921: “The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to no one in particular?”
1946: "Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night." — Darryl Zanuck, 20th Century Fox.
1955: "Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 years." — Alex Lewyt, President of the Lewyt Vacuum Cleaner Company.
1959: "Before man reaches the moon, your mail will be delivered within hours from New York to Australia by guided missiles. We stand on the threshold of rocket mail." — Arthur Summerfield, U.S. Postmaster General.
1961: "There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television or radio service inside the United States." — T.A.M. Craven, Federal Communications Commission (FCC) commissioner.
1966: "Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop.” — Time Magazine.
1981: “Cellular phones will absolutely not replace local wire systems.” — Marty Cooper, inventor.
1995: "I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." — Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com.
2005: "There's just not that many videos I want to watch." — Steve Chen, CTO and co-founder of YouTube expressing concerns about his company’s long term viability.
2006: "Everyone's always asking me when Apple will come out with a cell phone. My answer is, 'Probably never.'" — David Pogue, The New York Times.
2007: “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.” — Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO.
I'm a little confused though. Is their price target of 440 saying that today the price should be 440? If that's the case then I don't really have a problem with that, but what is their growth projection to 2030?
I previously cut my losses at 417. Just waiting to buy back in now!
Is the Morgan Stanley model available for download/viewing?
Got to say I'm a bit surprised by this. If MS are correct and all future electrolyser orders go through the JV with Linde, then this is surely a major change to the overall business model and needed to be declared more publicly than at an investors presentation? It certainly wasn't spelled out in the interim results RNS, and can only have been shown in the analysts and investors call that afternoon. What does that mean for the other MoUs that have been signed - it would seem strange if these sales were all routed through ILE GMBH. Indeed, since ILE orders were reported as a separate line on the interim results, it would be actively misleading if the other sales were also through that company.
Bottom line is that this is very difficult to believe. All European sales through ILE perhaps, but I can't see it being worldwide.
Largely guesswork - who can accurately predict the size of the electolyser market over this time period or the share of it going to the ITM/Linde JV. We have just seen the impact of semi-conductor shortages. The margin of error in the estimate could be huge.
ITM Power shares revenues with Linde on electrolyser orders. We learned that most (if not all) future electrolyser orders to ITM Power should go through the JV with Linde in the future: about 65% of the revenues associated with these orders should come to ITM Power, while the rest should go to its partner Linde. On top of revenues associated with the sale of the electrolysers, the JV may be eligible to receive management fees (c.3%).
While this information was disclosed to the market in ITM's 2021 interim results presentation, we erroneously assumed that only a few electrolyser orders would go through this joint venture.
We reflect this in our updated model, which materially lowers our revenue estimates. Our revenue estimates come down by 35% on average over 2021-30e. While we still expect EBITDA breakeven for ITM Power in fiscal year 2024, our EBITDA estimates come down by 38% over 2024-30e.
As a result, our price target comes down from 600p/share to 440p/share. With only 2% upside to the share price at yesterday's close, we are now Equal-weight on ITM