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I have just written an article discussing and comparing BATS and IMB, there has been some exemplary performance since inception, recent performance is varied.
How confident are you on the future? I have just made an entry to both stocks.
https://ftsedividends.co.uk/index.php/2023/04/17/bats-v-imb-the-smoking-ftse-100-stocks/
Fair comment Clued. I should have taken more time reading the update before posting. Fwiw i am very pleased with this investment in terms of the dividend / buy backs and future growth potential. Hopefully this will be one of my better long term investments.
upomega, not sure what strategy you were expecting. They continue to develop and increase sales of the New Generation Products whilst trying to optimise the sales of trad tobacco products !!
Personally i am very disappointed. i was hoping that there would some kind of strategic growth. Its as if they are now resound to just tread water until a larger player aquires them.Having ssid that i am very happy that the dividend remains and any buy back should make the share price more stable.
I'm back in @ 18.475 - I sold out last year at a couple of points ( high 18s and mid 19s ) and missed all the 20s, so I'm hoping it'll creep back up towards those levels....still got half the buy-back to do so hopefully they can pick up a slightly larger quantity at this point with the SP being in the mid 18s.
Trading Update seems fine overall. Some positives and some negatives.
1880
How do people feel now it's 1180?
This morning I looked at the dreadful state of the market and decided against re-purchasing IMB. I chose LGEN instead as it seems to have been hammered harder and for no good reason. Plus has a hefty divided going ex next month. I can see myself rotating back to IMB later in the year for the two outsize dividends. I still hold a lot of IMB; it's rewarded me well over the last few years.
There you are Thronegames, courtesy of a bank in Silicon Valley you get your chance to reenter at under 1980p!
It's a funny old world.
Guitarsolo
Thronegames, another 1% drop and you'll havw your 1980p to get back in !!
Hi Thrones,
It's not exactly scientific, but I see the "summer months" (aka March to Sept) as the time when IMB will experience share price growth simply because in the other months (Oct-Feb) it is paying out c.100p on its income over 6-months. This is most of the income over the period. I know it doesn't work that way (!), but I would expect the share price to increase from here to c.£21/£22 a share by September and then to hold steady.
Keep paying down debt. Keep finding those economies. Keep increasing market share (remember, we don't smoke much here but the rest of the world does), Keep looking for those next generation opportunities!
Get debt down to zero. Get earnings to 300ps. It's a cash cow then.
Guitarsolo
Well, as per my last post, that was a mistake! I could be waiting a long time to get back in sub 19.80!!!
Up 58.5p, nice recovery post XD.
So I sold about half my holding today at 19.82 .But only on the prospect of buying back at a lower price in the near future. I am taking a chance that, with the two 'big' dividends out of the way and inflation cooling, IMB has little to support the SP in the short term. I may have made a mistake. Let's see! Just my personal opinion, no advice intended!
In my opinion the buybacks (both here and at BATS) have been a mistake. In a declining industry the focus should be on paying off debt in order to protect the dividend for as long as possible. The result has been a big increase in the cost of debt (as rates have gone up) which will impact future financing.
IMB could have the net debt down to 0 in less than a decade based on current cash flows, along with consistent increases in the dividend as interest costs reduce, and once the debt is gone all the excess cash could be paid out to shareholders.
The drop in Thurs seems to relate to some negative news re competitor BATS which fell around 5% on that day. IMB dropped around 2.5% but seems to have more or less recovered. Can't remember detail re BATS and I'm too lazy to look it up!
I did my first buy yesterday in IMB at 2030 , I bought 30k worth so fingers crossed :) I believe it goes ex div on the 16 th of feb so that will nice , I was always a long term investor in other shares & still am to a certain degree but I’ve started short term trades starting off with 25k and now up to 30k within a few months, still over 50% down from highs but hopefully claw it back with £500 win now & then and not get too greedy is my way forward GLA
Could be II’s offloading that caused the drop, off course this is just pure speculation but a fairly big drop to 1960 yesterday! Looks to have recovered with someone snapping it up, I was tempted but worried about why it had dropped so much. Hopefully your buy in at 2051 will come good Henry :)
I bought the shares at 2051 a couple of weeks ago thinking it was a good buy now not sure!
Hi all, only recently started looking at this share based on Divi so excuse my limited experience but looking at recent information, I can’t fathom the drop in sp over the last 3 months - anyone have any thoughts on this?
Ex dividend date near ,16th Feb , took a few , first time .....
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/imperial-brands-lon-imb-dividend-074030846.html
First not good for short, there is one +50% :)
Look at chart on yahoo (max)
From bottom 2000 @ 300p to 2008 @ 2300p. (+666%)
Then down for 1,5 years. (-34%)
Next leg from 2009 @ 1500p to 2016 @ 4100p. (+173%)
Then down for 4+ years. (-70%)
Now up from 2020 @ 1200 to todays @ 2000. (+66%)
I would say that 20% + divi is good result for 1 year (for big cap), I would take some money off the table.
For example lock(SL) 1/4 of position and wait for weakness to add position.
This is large cap and I think 100% - 150% is huge gain in Billions.., with small cap I would take first bite @ +50-100%.
Bad thing with my method is that you will never get 10 baggers.
TGA from 200 to 800 (current 1400)
XOM from 37 to 87 (current 100+)
redlse, thank you for your excellent analytical work here. How do you interpret the last figure of +12% in 2022; seems to buck the trend? This share has been sliding for the last decade. Do you think the +12% in 2022 reflects the positive sentiment recently? I am sitting on a capital gain of about 20% here on top of my divis based on my most recent purchases in the last two years. I am considering selling out while significantly ahead. Excellent dividend is pushing me to sit tight or reduce at the moment.
There is a cycle price movement every year. The top is somewhere in between the end of December and the first week in January. Bottom is around end of January, I am waiting for that point.
I think this cycle is because next two dividend are 50% smaller.
(First date is from previous year, % is my estimate from closing dates for possible short position over this period)
2000: 9 JAN - 30 JAN : -30%
2001: 26 DEC - 21 JAN: - 11%
2002: 6 JAN - 26 MAY: +50%
2003: 29 DEC - 2 FEB: -10%
2004: 4 JAN - 18 JAN: -4,7%
2005: 26 DEC - 16 JAN: -3,5%
2006: 25 DEC - 22 JAN: -4,9%
2007: 7 JAN - 14 JAN: -6,0%
2008: 6 JAN - 20 JAN: -10%
2009: 4 JAN - 4 MAY: -19%
2010: 27 DEC - 7 FEB: +6%
2011: 19 DEC - 23 JAN: -12%
2012: 25 DEC - 15 JAN: -7%
2013: 6 JAN - 27 JAN: -3%
2014: 22 DEC - 12 JAN: -5%
2015: 21 DEC - 28 DEC: -2,5%
2016: 27 DEC - 10 JAN: 0%
2017: 25 DEC - 15 JAN: +4%
2018: 30 DEC - 4 FEB: -16%
2019: 23 DEC - 20 JAN: 0%
2020: 22 DEC - APR: -30%
2021: 27 DEC - 21 FEB: -13%
2022: 26 DEC - 6 FEB: +12%