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RonBruce,
Its a good post and I saw it on ADVFN. I have a couple of comments:
1) One thing that makes this a little different is that the're asking for authorization to issue the placing shares (360m of them - resolution 1) and then in the next resolution (#2) permission to issue a further shares (up to 33% more)
2) I'm a little confused with resolutions 3 & 4 - they seem the same as resolutions 1 & 2 with the exception that they are special resolutions and are requesting authorization to do the same thing except on an non-preemtive basis. I'm not sure why they are doing this for resolution 1?
Tony, any time soon.
Rns stated:
'The Acquisition is subject to normal interim period adjustments, customary conditions, and standard regulatory approvals'.
Dont think it will take long, will be instantly cash acreative as implied by the term 'subject to normal interim period adjustment'.
Deal completion RNS should give us a nice spurt..
Jollygoodya,
Nicely said !
I wonder whether the deal closes today ? It was effective from April - might mean that that I3e gets a reduction on the deal price i.e. the FCF generated from April taken off the purchase price.
Lets see what tomorrow brings !
I agree Tony, the value will out. Reality of it as we all know is that mostly the sp falls to the placing price, part and parcel of the market mechanics. The sp will rise, as the cashflow generation of the bolt on starts to be realised and the market is updated on how the bolt has been 'bedded in' (i.e. I3E have demonstrated their ability to manage and integrate the addition and the BoD and management have proven their skills and acumen and hence enhanced trust). In the meantime there be will some churn of the placing shares (Quite normal). Hence this is a patient but very comfortable hold (all things being equal) until further news. GLA.
2.7 million shares buy after hours
Did the MM drop the SP today to fill several large buy orders
Hmmmm probably
I say this coz Canada is still up 2.6% and we are down
Hasiba,
There is no physical link between SP and NAV meaning that the NAV can double and does not automatically mean the SP will double - so that it the explanation!
However, if the value proposition is compelling - then I think the SP will follow. With the news flow and the prospect of a significantly higher Dividend - this is what I think will happen.
Tony…
“ The pizza analogy is a good one but it appears it is still too complicated for some - we own a smaller % of the overall pizza - but the slice is actually bigger. It may be worth a little less right now due to the market mechanics but it will reprice.”
If the slice is bigger ..how do you explain why this is not reflecting in share price now!?
This will take time and proof of results.
It will only get bigger slice when the BoD delivered the goods but not now…and the market is waiting too!
I put my money on believing that they will in the future according to their deal…but other dynamics at play too now with the huge numbers in shares in the hands of ii who control the show..
It’s a waiting game now…though I am still optimistic but really wanted to see changes in this BoD mindset and some changes to manage this is now a bigger company..
Tony, I've never disagreed with the numbers. I've also always maintained the deal from an underlying value perspective was very good. But they way they paid for the additional production and reserves means it's going to be some time before we reach fair value. So our sp will be far lower than fair value for some time. It's not hard to see, but for those struggling they can look back over the coming months and see if I'm proven correct as we crawl and occasionally lurch forward, only to be pulled back. After all us lths have been through this before. As for the dividend, what difference does it make getting a slightly better yield per share (but not for the first 6 month dividend), when the company is trading far lower than underlying value. Here's an example of how printing shares for production can be poor for sp appreciation - The company print the next 360m shares @ 15p for 10kboepd. What happens? We'll have more than tripled our production but our sp will end be closer to 15p for another 6 months. So we'll have more than tripled production in 12-18 months for 50% sp appreciation. Can't say I'm happy with that outcome when other options would have yielded better sp appreciation. Not a problem for the IIs as they gain more ownership and bigger dividends while they the await sp appreciation. And not a problem for the bod who keep awarding themselves millions (perhaps even tens of millions) of shares whilst they take +£500k salaries. Hard to lose here, especially at 11p, but could be a while before we really win.
This will become evident with the dividend - your going to see a bigger dividend which cannot be true if your slice of pizza is getting smaller !!
GGG,
The pizza analogy is a good one but it appears it is still too complicated for some - we own a smaller % of the overall pizza - but the slice is actually bigger. It may be worth a little less right now due to the market mechanics but it will reprice.
Going by the numbers provided by Management - this is a fact unless you doubt the numbers. Tell me this is incorrect GGG.
It makes no difference what mini bump you were referring to Tony if you understand the consequences of handing 360m shares @ 11p to IIs. As for the meeting. What is there to comment on exactly? The IIs had control of the company, and the bod have given them even more control. So any resolutions the bod ask for will be agreed. Especially given these resolutions solely look after the interests of the IIs (with more shares no doubt to be printed and handed to them), and the bod (with more options to be provided for exchanging these shares for increased production). So discussing the outcome of this meeting, and the next, and the one following is a pointless exercise. The resolutions simply reinforce the company will continue to be ceded to IIs through the printing of shares, which will further increase bod options (substantial by any stretch), and PIs will continue to own less of the company than they did before. Hasiba used your pizza analogy quite well - the pizza may be bigger, but we now own less of it. And as much as the pizza being worth more, what difference does it make if you can buy it at a discount. So people on here have two options, sit and wait for the share price to very slowly approach the value that you have in your spreadsheets. Or accumulate (for more ownership of the discounted pizza) and then selling some slices when the price increases (knowing the price will drop back as more pizza hits the market). No response on my email yet.
GGG,
I was talking about the run up today just before the meeting which you have not commented on.
Did you get a response to your email to I3E ?
The run up and drop to the share price isn't puzzling Tony, it's what I've been saying will happen for some time now in the absence of significant news. Simple profit taking for an easy 3-5%. The share price will be anchored to the 11's for sometime. And all the talk of how 'undervalued' we happen to be on a variety of metrics means f'all when you have 360m shares to churn. My estimate is 50-100m excess shares will be churned by the IIs, many of which they'll sell and buy-back a few times over. I won't at all be surprised to see the f/o take us to 15p before the IIs drop us down to 12p and then buy on the way back up. So it will be months before we break 15p. No point blaming the IIs. The bod gave them ownership of the company and its share price. We're now at their mercy. Only thing to do now is take one's excess shares and do the same.
I voted against as protest vote but expected it to pass anyway .
My support to i3 is evidently clear in my purchasing more shares on the dips below 11p but shareholders must express their vote to what they believe was right for tgem.
Dilution never good for shareholders and the impact it caused on the EPS is evident here.
We are now left with the smaller slice of a bigger Pizza !
The BoD will have to work much harder to improve the EPS to fulfil their promise of what a good deal they achieved by sacrificing the shareholders value in massive way..
The deal is a good one but this BoB need need to be better than what we have the overpaid ones..
The ii will do that as our voice is now much weaker!
GL and happy to hold for better news in terms of bigger revenues and profits reflecting in accrual ratio of the new expanding company..
The small drop may have been caused by someone who didn't get the result he wanted selling his millions of shares in protest.
Clearwater news will be tomorrow morning 7am
also MM doing their usual tree shake to get PI's to sell, with not much success
will be interesting to see what happens when Canada opens, i predict they will go up 10%
I think we might get a Tennyson Brokers note today or tomorrow followed by a WHI note after the clearwater drill results.
onwards and upwards !
the little run up in the SP prior to the meeting and fall shortly after is a little puzzling. We're SH's expecting GGG and his followers to overturn the vote or where they expecting other news to be delivered prior to the meeting.
I'm interested to see how many votes were against - I wouldn't think it is much more than those that expressed there opposition here - i.e. something in the 10-15m range.
I must admit - I was half expecting news on Clearwater at 7.00am this morning.
So I hope everyone took full advantage of the placing to load up at less than the placing price. My ISA allowance is now maxed out … and if the SP can just stay a little depressed until I reinvest my special divi I’ll be a very happy bunny.
Agreed. After this week will only be good news after good news. August will be a great month.
Party is about to begin, let’s get back to 16p
https://twitter.com/swazersc/status/1419582593226453005?s=24