The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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@InvestingGoals, thanks..everytime I read the definitions its like the 1st time, minds full of rubbish, no room for the important stuff...
I am waiting for the guy who can explain..
P90 30bcf for 3.0% Helium
P50 138bcf 4.2/4.7%(quoted differently in same doc)
P10 520bcf 4.9%
PX xxxxxbcf 8.0%
"In aggregate across all the prospects, the helium content is assumed to be 3% in the P90 case, 4.2% in the P50 case and 4.9% in the P10 case"
Probably complicated modeliing
@dai2belts this is a guide on P10 P50 P90 estimates etc..
https://www.cooperenergy.com.au/our-operations/glossary/p50-and-p90-mean-expected-and-p10
@KeithOz, both the P50 & P10 resources are calculated using less than 5%, so 8% is going to loads of dosh...
I dont have a clue how they get from P50 to P10 values with less than 1% difference in He concentration
Maybe Keith oz is dm ???????
Thanks KeithOz for the response - all acknowledged and appreciated. I think DM must read your posts, as he's pretty much just echoed your viewpoint on the proactive interview.
Legalwolf, as you well know, the only certainties are death & taxes. When you have helium measured at the surface and from near surface, I think it is reasonable to assume that the stuff lower down was more likely to be helium rather than troglodyte's f@rts. Returning to Tai is geologically & financially sensible - this is where you are most likely to make a discovery, or as the RNS said, to confirm a discovery. The other identified prospects may look very good from a geophysical point of view, but helium has not yet been observed there. You drill them after the first official discovery, when you can raise the same amount of money but with less dilution. I would expect that the drill negotiations include an option fee to retain the rig & crew for further work, weather permitting.
Thanks KeithOz - not sure I agree with all of that to be honest. I think when the company have spent most the last year talking about multiple targets and shallow and deep drilling, and then announce they will be returning to Tai, it is perfectly reasonable for shareholders to ask whether this is mainly financial compulsion, or geological compulsion (i.e. Tai is a near certain discovery). If the latter, then its reasonable to ask why they didn't just announce this sooner (and have arranged the Rig by now).
I am particularly struck by the following passage from your post:
"You contract a gas rig (we know this is 8½") to drill where you are certain to be successful. I use certain deliberately - anyone who knows anything about this business knows that the only reason a discovery was not declared last year at three different horizons was due to an inadequate borehole."
Are you saying this is a 100% COS?
If all goes well for HE1 how far away is production?
Prospective resources and contingent resources aren't commercial if you look at industry tables what is needed are commercial proven reserves.
Can you get reserves proven from one well or you need a few more wells for confirmation? Meaning they could be back for more drilling next year aiming to get the initial reserves proven or at least to a respectable size of proven reserves? As a comparison ASX listed BNL Blue Star in the US is doing like 10 wells this year as an early stage explorer also with only helium prospective resources at this stage like HE1. No doubt they seek to get some reserves of helium proven this year if successful.
Then for HE1 I'd envisage a small pilot plant to prove it out which might take what 1-2 years to build once there are sufficient reserves to underpin the finance for a pilot plant.
Then if plenty of helium reserves are proven a further 2 years or so to build a plant multiples larger?
So large revenues if all goes well and then maybe dividends could be 5 years away all things going well?
Or maybe some steps could be fast-tracked?
Thanks for a decent post KeithOz.
@ITV
ditto
great posts and really helpful. Thanks people.
@Latorre @skitish @KeithOz @DD @Turbot1610
Hi Guys
I sincerely thank you all, for your comprehensive
posts; not only detailing the current situation,
you’ve fully explained the logic and reasoning:)
Your collective posts have provided us all, me
included, with a bank of informed knowledge,
from which, many questions are answered, hence, should
reduce the amount of posts, seeking further clarification:)
Thanks again, my friends, what an excellent BB,
abundant knowledge freely shared, to benefit all:)
ITV - as Manual says, l try, l try, l learn, l learn
Thanks @keithoz.
there is a sensible logic to what you've set out - underpinned by a clear knowledge of what might happen. i am hoping that you are right.
.....and I'm very bored with the constant drivel posted about DM and HE1. The only reasons that you'd spend your time on a BB ****ging the share are the reasons that you've listed......it does become boring when the 'Khalid' crew appear.......and we all know why they are here.
Great post @keithOz.....let's hope you've got it spot on
The market doesn't lie
@KeithOz
An excellent post as skittish has said. The second line of your post sums up some of the posts that this board has attracted.
Onwards and upwards.
KO - excellent - bringing a bit of sanity back to the proceedings.
Lots of negative posts on here in the last 24 hours.
Q. Why would you try to decrease the value of your own shares?
A. Because you don't hold any, and you have an undeclared short position (lots of those!), or want to buy in at a lower price, or work for someone who has a short position or wants a lower price.
So what is actually going on with HE1 over the next year? Let's take a step back, and revisit the prospectus & CPR, which all investors here should have read. This include a 2U/P50 unrisked resource of 138BCF He, which became 14BCF once risked. In order for HE1 to become an attractive investment proposition, especially to an O & G major, two things have to happen:
1. some of the risk has to be removed - currently this relates to He presence & concentration, trap & seal, reservoir quality.
2. the Prospective Resource needs to be moved to a Contingent Resource, or even better to a Reserve. This is done by measuring gas charge, reservoir porosity & permeability, and effective trap seal, and for Reserve, at least a 30-day flow test.
So if you are HE1 management, with a tight budget, and want to avoid dilution, what do you do? You contract a gas rig (we know this is 8½") to drill where you are certain to be successful. I use certain deliberately - anyone who knows anything about this business knows that the only reason a discovery was not declared last year at three different horizons was due to an inadequate borehole. So with the right rig, no's 1 & 2 above will be adequately addressed- and no this in not 'a last roll of the dice', it is finishing off the job that came within a whisker of being successfully completed last year.
What will happen when a discovery is announced? The results will be included in a new CPR. Most of the old risking will vanish, moving the risked Prospective to a much higher Contingent resource. The old CPR assumed a He content of 4.4%. If 8% or higher is proven, this will have the effect of doubling the whole resource. Furthermore, the new areas to the north of Tai & Itumbula, with deeper reservoirs, will be included. Do not be surprised to see a new Contingent Resource of 200BCF. All this from one drill this year. As further prospects are drilled, Rukwa could end up being 500BCF. That is an awful lot of He.
So, next steps after drilling Tai? The share price will be a lot higher than now, so raise money by a rights issue, as agreed at the last AGM. It is my understanding that any shares not taken up by existing holders can be placed. This cash is then used to drill the other refined prospects that have been identified by all the geophysical work done over the last six months.
There is a possibility of JV-ing with Noble Helium - makes a lot of sense to share both operating & infrastructure costs. NH have some backers with deep pockets who may become involved. Our Chairman has friends with even deeper pockets. O&G majors' pockets are the deepest of all.