George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
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AZ has signed another Chinese deal with Allorion (operates in China and US, but appears to be unlisted in US). The deal looks similar to that struck with HCM for Savo. A new EGFR drug will be developed by AZ in return for staged milestone payments and future royalties.
the company has very little track record of safeguarding investors interest, aptly demonstrated by ckhh's botched placing ****-up a few years ago, although to be fair it appears even senior management weren't aware it was going to happen. sometimes i get the feeling this is a ckhh vanity project.
In case, management has any genuine intention of safeguarding investors’ interests, it is not yet been made visible. Rather, the short sellers have been playing the market, fearlessly. Even after the Takeda deal (worth a third of the market value of the company), share price has failed to recover. No news of new fund holders/ institutions showing interest.
Hope 2024 will bring back the long last shine to the sp. In the mean while, investors have to remain philosophical for this company working hard to develop new therapies to patients diagnosed with serious health conditions.
All we really know is there has been a shift towards commercialisation and shareholder interests, if this includes a takeover while keeping their long term goals intact then possible.
Given the figures involving Takeda deal, you have to wonder if this topic has not already surfaced before.
Is the majority holder interested, at all, in receiving an offer, irrespective of what other, institutional and private, investors’ wishes?
As a minnow holder, I am interested to see an offer price!!
It looks like HCM has missed its China NDAs for Sovlep and Amdiz. I am somewhat surprised by the former as the results were read out in August, so a full four months have passed.
Resources are likely more limited due to the restructuring of the company this year and possibly focused on negotiating NDRL than new applications…..
They will need to up their game in 2024 as they now have listed 9 applications (including the confirmatory savo study) for completion by end of 2024. If they dont file in 2024, these cannot be approved and marketed in 2025 (unless there is accelerated approval).
Every missed milestone delays approval and defers revenue….. An extra $m or two spent on the regulatory processes in 2024 will be repaid manyfold in 2025/26.
Those that successfully pushed for a change in strategy will no doubt be monitoring all of this M & A activity.
Over the holiday break, in the US, Bristol Myers Squibb scooped up Boston innovator Karuna Therapeutics for £11.5billion.
Britain’s Astra deepened its commitment to oncology and China with the purchase of Gracell for just under £1billion.
Earlier in December, Astra splashed a similar amount on Seattle-based Icosavax which is pursuing a vaccine for RSV, a respiratory virus.
Pfizer, after a regulatory pause, has just secured approval for its £33billion takeover of cancer care group Seagen as it plays catch-up with Astra and others.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-12904577/ALEX-BRUMMER-Big-pharma-bets-biotech-global-drugs-industry-booms.html
Only a few are too big to be acquired……Pfizer has a $43bn deal recently agreed for Seagen.
My long held view is that China will want to see some local champions emerge and I think CKHH will swap their stake for a smaller holding in a bigger entity. They gave up on being the majority shareholder a long time ago…so it will come down to deal structure (cash/equity mix)….it will be the larger party giving value to the smaller party, so an offer by a larger player with a mix of cash / equity is my most likely outcome that is acceptable to CKHH and China regulators.
in comparison to those two chinese companies, where does hcm stand?
it is quite well established, successfully developed three oncology therapies which are already in the market. fru*****inib has recently become available in the united states and awaiting approval in europe and japan. plus a pipeline consisting of various ongoing phase2 and phase 3 studies for a number of clinical applications.
has hutchmed already become too big to be merged with another major phama? if at all possible, what might be an appropriate offer price?
Also option 1 but with a lot more of a premium than 30%...! eg 100% is acceptable.
Most are away from desks so news is not really being absorbed, still a bit of room in portfolio for a few more.
Yes, first option too, Takeda or AZ both with a strong focus on China which is also Hutchmeds strong point.
Bristol Myers have made two related acquisitions recently, there was also a third in October with acquisition of Mirati Therapeutics
Bristol Myers to buy RayzeBio for $4.1 billion
"Dec 26 (Reuters) - Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY.N) said on Tuesday it would buy RayzeBio (RYZB.O) for about $4.1 billion to bolster its cancer drug business, marking the second multi-billion dollar deal struck by the drugmaker in less than a week."
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/bristol-myers-buy-rayzebio-about-41-billion-2023-12-26/
AZ and others have had time to buy Hutchmed at a ridculously low valuation and some could argue they still can. Currently for UK based shareholders we now have the continued appreciation of GBP against the USD as another headwind to deal with.
First option, if ever happens, would be nice for long time holders.
Would you rather:
Sell to a Big Pharma (Takeda, AZ, PFE etc)
Merge with a larger China player (eg Innovent / Beigene)?
Takeover / merge with a smaller Chinese player? (Eg Gracell)
Continue as an independent and grow organically?
AZN acquiring Gracell Biotechnologies, a Chinese pharmaceutical company for $1 billion. Gracell sp has raisen 30%. Fingers crossed!
All a bit a game, trade went through on RSP but market makers choose not to print ?
Very much de-risked now compared to 12 months ago, time to buy back some, easy does it 3k to start with.
I think they need more financial results out there, with a quarterly sales update becoming necessary……..
If the 9 NDAs are made by end 2024 that are on their presentation, it will be the end of 2025 before those are being marketed and the end of 2026 before we have a start up year sales number…and Feb 27 for a FY in a fully launched form…..so there is plenty of time to get back in if it looks successful….and plenty of reasons to go elsewhere in the short term
One can only assume that there’s a desperate attempt in the market to keep the sp down, what ever the progress may be.
Well here we are, in the Hutchmed time machine when it comes to the share price, back to where it was 8 years ago. All that progress and the market doesn't give a damn...
When you go onto L2 to buy a chunk you cant, only 400 --500 there, not worth the effort - usual prop trader tricks.
All these doesn’t matter;
nil debt and cash in the bank,
Takeda agreement worth a billion dollars of income,
FDA approval for an in-house developed therapy,
three drugs in the market,
continued inclusion of Elunate and Sulanda in NRDL,
on going global studies for Surufatinib,
awaiting approval decisions from EMA and Japanese authorities….
and, of course the pipeline.
SP needs to be RED because, it is Christmas time.
(btw, any of those $ 25 “corner stone investors”, still holding??)
Yes…yet another day of unexplained volatility….which could well reverse tomorrow…..
Pointless ups and downs….but they do provide entry points for a short term gain if that is what you want.