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I'm surprised too. But everything except metals are down lately
Thought the price would have spiked today after a busy weekend of reopening but guess not (well apart from the first 15 minutes this morning), the price will no doubt continue to slide and may worsen after the interim report so tempted to sell and buy back then. The company is definitely very lucrative in the long run- Barclays prediction of 400p by 2022 does not sound unrealistic at all considering all the potential room for acquisitions next year.
Any thoughts here would be great
Does
Yeah a good summary PP
I may wait until the interims in August and average down once the share price slides.
And Yuri - I'm not understanding your post TBH. It just came across as a bit ranty!
You do realize they have around 3p eps and negative salvageable equity / NAV
(because on a second-hand market assets would hardly go for half-price) ?
I mean you should be extremely optimistic about future prospect and highly risk taking personality (or marketing-affected) in order to invest in company with 3p eps vs 150p sp, really?
Even during pre-covid times it realistically should been priced at around 20p (costs grow faster vs revenue btw), but 15+ times above it? Seriously? What justifies it?
Covid made it even worse (with questionable prospects), now it should be priced practically at 10p..
PP. very good summary. Spot on fella
300p+ value was for a company with an aggressive growth plan - agree (or rather hope...!) returning customer and new sign-up numbers will be positive given all the rhetoric i.e. exercise and you’ll probably live longer(!), however I’d expect any deals not inked-in on new sites will be back to the drawing board to eek out more value / cut costs, which means they’ll be delayed. I think this is a good med/long-term hold, the short term I’m imagining to be a rise today, possibly 160p(?), plateau until 25th, more modest rise (maybe an RNS) on/after 25th when they ‘officially’ re-open, plateau again, then slide-back on the half-year with a material drop if the full-year plan is updated to incl. fewer new sites. Conversely, the UK commercial property market will be a fire sale over the next year at least, and i expect there are several smaller gym companies that have/will (on ending furlough) cease to exist, which may mean some quick/cheap acquisitions to help back-fill planed 2020 site numbers? Not sure if that’s ramping or deramping but either way I’m invested here - positives outweigh the negatives still in my mind, but north of 160p will be very tempting with the chance to buy-back in late august. DYOR of course!
Market looking for new customer numbers which will be significantly higher. The numbers won’t be pretty with any company. Can see big rise tomorrow and good momentum for next week
Interim results mid-late August wont be a pretty sight - sell on the rise after opening is my plan!
Fair points munch.
I very much like this company and I’m here for the long haul.
Bought at 286p unfortunately so a long way to go for me.
I will average down at some point though.
Was hoping private equity might make an offer in the long term
Echo. The damage of covid has been priced in. But let me tell you one thing..... the amount of people including new first timers waiting to join gym is insane. Look up a report .... google it and it says gym re opening searches trampled pub opening searches by 2000%. Yes2 thousand. Because people who didn’t go gym have put on weight and are ready to Join. I can see explosion of new people coming to gyms and that means more money for this Compsny.
Expect a 5-10% rise tomorrow here.
In the short term I can see a good upward trend due to the re-opening on July 25th
But will we have to wait until interims to see the damage that covid has done?
Happy to hear people’s views :-)
Gyms open from 25th July.
2 weeks time. Boom time for the sp. can see aggressive marketing will start to get customers doubled up.
Can see £1.80 by end of this month.
That's what I read too. Hopefully not too many restrictions!
Allegedly there’s a Govt. announcement at 17:00 tonight on re-opening timetable for gyms. Last chance today at this share price (hopefully...!) DYOR
Mud July ish according to government. Not long