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The USA has a significant military presence in Kurdistan , and plans to expand it ( if the rumours about an airbase near Erbil are true ). So it will be interesting to see how they rspond to a large Russian or even larger Chinese presence in the O&G sector.
I also believe that change is on the way , not because the government wants to change , but because the current ( and growing) civil unrest will give them little choice. They are the same as politicans everywhere , staying on the gravy train is their # 1 priority.
The Yanks might lay down a full house yet.
When I was active, I once asked a person if some research has been done which could explain when to buy a technology or a stock that will have market success. It was in 2006 or 2007 and the only information I got was Dieter Diermeier, Northwestern University, Tipping point theory.
At that time I didn’t find anything at all on the web. Three weeks ago I found the tiny sheet of paper where that information was written: I got the link
« If just 10% of a social network is strongly committed to an opinion, that’s enough to rapidly convert the uncommitted 90% to adopt their point of view, say researchers who used computer models to discover the tipping point where a minority view becomes the majority opinion. »
Good management of a stock price requires the CFO enlist some lobbyists to do the job which can be positive or negative on the stock price.
Of course, the exercise price of options matters.
US Co's have share holders Russian and Chinese are State Co's hence we see more caution from the US .
Hunt has Smirit but we know next to nothing about it other than there is a lot of oil there , superb flow rates like Shaikan , that Licence probably cost them $15 mill and they will sell it on for $500 mill I guess.
Russia's economy is the size of Italy's but you don't see ENI pushing their weight around , Putin is punching above his weight and Russia needs another leader like him in the wings to continue their larger than life presence . China is incredibly abusive and their longevity on the world stage will be short because of this .
The Russians already have close links with the KRG, which is well known and i believe the Kurds are looking more and more Favorably towards Moscow than Trumps USA, however you just can't predict Trumps next move will be.
The Chinese are altogether a different player and perhaps more secret with what they want to achieve, they have said that investment plans with Iran are on the back foot and view Iraq as a better prospect as an investment opportunity as the posted articles highlight.
I am interested with the speculation of Chinese involvement being a mediator of negotiations between Baghdad & Erbil with all the long standing issues between them, perhaps the chinese want these issues addressed once and for all, before making substantial investments.
The unrest in south Iraq can be blamed on a number of reasons, but Baghdad has for years been sidetracked by the Kurdish factor, a agreement with the KRG will allow harmony and stability for both governments, then making both regions a far more better investment opportunity, that being said it will take years for this to reach ground level for suffering Iraqis.
It will be quite interesting to see if the Chinese can achieve where so many have failed, clearly the ME is changing and it appears the US are not quite the heavy weights they used to be, both Russia and China have a increasing foothold at the expense of US weakness, however as i have already said Trump is unpredictable, but it will be more difficult the longer Russia & China grab the initiative.
Thanks guys all the articles were very interesting the Chinese are more involved and invested in the country than I had realised , between them and Russians ,looks like the Americans will be left out in the cold !
All part of the Belt and Road initiative. Kurdistan is vital for the Chinese + Russians.
CCC I notice in this article there is no mention of the Chinese , what are your thoughts on Chinese influence in the country ! Thanks
With ongoing protests making other investors nervous, Moscow is charging ahead.
BY VERA MIRONOVA, MOHAMMED HUSSEIN | NOVEMBER 15, 2019, 4:58 PM.
Worth a read, as much is being done behind the scenes.
A bunch of us seem to agree with your usual outspoken contributions angie.
But what can be done when a BoD go into shut up and fill up mode ?
TMFBoing - FFS.
Top Headhunters rarely do their searches in the public domain.
They pride themselves on their in-house portfolio of ‘premier executives’ from which to draw. This from personal experience.
And at this level of remuneration they would definitely be spoilt for choice.
The candidate list would be long, talented and ambitious.
The money alone, combined with the certainty of millions to come (whatever the outcome) would do it.
In a response to a query back in September, Mark Antelmes advised me that-
‘We have a leading sector international search firm on the case and we are seeing some very strong candidates.’
BS. Where are they?
Though I’m treading on dangerous territory, I’m rapidly coming to the conclusion that there is no replacement anywhere on the horizon.
And if GKP is to quickly to develop into an oil producing behemoth, investing billions in its endeavour, then it is patently ridiculous that they might even attempt that without proper financial scrutiny at all points.
The other option is that there will be no need for a replacement, and this recruitment fiasco is just that, a fiasco.
Very droll S-cat.
Sad thing is that it's probably a close summary of what actually goes on at GKP.
Someone is authorising the award of obscene bonuses to a handfull of persons for achieving ....... ostensibly, nothing.
Would a regular update on the latest missed deadlines and technical failures be sssssooooooo detrimental to World security ?
That’s a weird question after all my previous posts!
As the aim of the Kurds is independence, why would they sell their jewel now. Much better wait.
On the other part, ownership of Shaikan by China and Russia will allow them to trade oil in another currency than USD.
There are ways to create value for everyone. Why couldn’t we see the sale of less than half of Shaikan to an international consortium which avoids a takeover bid. KRG could be come the reference shareholder if they choose to keep their 20 or 27.5% holding for which we never received a final RNS. For those who don’t understand, GKP would remain operator with KRG becoming the largest shareholder of GKP.
I don’t feel that such changes would require a takeover bid as all the board would within a few months bring in professionals. I don’t think so, but you know better.
Many unanswered questions, but ideas that would give the Kurdish shareholders a steady stream of dividends whatever the currency, allowing more buybacks (!) and having KRG as shareholders , allow the production to increase dramatically allowing fairly soon KRG to handover 250 bd to ICG.
What else do you want? KRG and the Kurds will have an international oil cy and Aramco will be benchmarked against it.
Of course, if there is only 800 mio bl of reserves that will not happen. KRG would never have taken so many concealment decisions about this cy if it was for 1bil bl.
Settle the payment system first.
Thursday, 14th November, 2019
I got it wrong when I bought Premier Oil (LSE: PMO) shares in 2015, and I’ve finally admitted what I should have decided before now – it’s time to sell.
A 2% uptick Thursday in response to the latest trading update isn’t going to change my mind, even though full-year production now looks set to come in at the upper end of the company’s earlier 75–80,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) guidance.
The flagship Catcher asset is on for 69,000 boepd with an operating efficiency of almost 100%, and has already reached cash payback just 22 months after first oil. The UK Tolmount field is on for first gas by the end of 2020, and the firm’s other prospects all sound like they’re progressing well.
But for me it’s all down to debt, and my erroneous assumption that oil prices would quickly get back to around $75 per barrel and that Premier would have paid down a lot more of its debt by now. Admittedly, a further reduction has brought that figure down to $2.03b at 31 October, but that’s still more than twice the company’s market cap.
I know it’s only a month ago that I was still seeing Premier Oil as a buy, but when I decide I’ve got something wrong, it’s only right that I put my hands up and say so.
While I do have a short list of top stocks I’d like to buy, I still fancy the idea of having one of the smaller oil companies in my portfolio, and the more I look at Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LSE: GKP) the more I like what I see.
I’ve previously examined the transformation that’s taken place at Gulf Keystone. At one point it looked like it could go bust over lack of payment from the Kurdistan Regional Government for the oil it was producing. Today, we see a company that’s receiving regular monthly payments, is on a modest price-to-earnings valuation, is in a healthy state of solvency, and is even paying dividends.
There are two key things I like about Gulf Keystone. One is that it does not carry net debt, unlike Premier Oil in particular and many other oil explorers in general. In fact, at the interim stage at 30 June, the firm reported net cash of $198.3m.
The other is that, despite falling oil production this year (due to things like maintenance), the company plans to raise its output to a new level of around 55,000 bopd by the second quarter of 2020 (from the 30–33,000 bopd expected this year). If that comes off, we could see a P/E dropping below eight.
Oh, and some of the lowest production costs in the business, so that’s three.
Dear Mr Counter,
What a pleasure it was to meet you last evening. And what better place to conduct the ceremonial final interview than in the convivial but discrete surroundings of the Greenhouse restaurant.
Jon and Kimberley also very much enjoyed the experience.
In fact after your departure Jon was still laughing at your Donald Duck impression conducted in full view of the other diners singing that Country classic, ‘Big Bad John’.
Well, as you said at the time, he is a bit of a cowboy!
So it was with real surprise and genuine disappointment this morning when I opened my post to find your correspondence declining our offer to join the Board of Gulf Keystone Petroleum when only twelve hours ago you seemed fully committed to the cause.
We went so far as to outline your remuneration package including the $750k salary, the reception package of 500k nil cost options, 250k of which would vest immediately with no consideration required, and the further three million performance related nil cost options vesting at one million a year for the next three years. We even agreed your guaranteed annual loyalty bonus of $500k.
However, your note references concerns relating to the size of the Field, the delays in the FDP approvals, the chequered history of our relationship with the KRG/MNR, the lack of any Oil and Gas Law, and the geopolitical fault lines running throughout the Region.
You go on to describe the ‘revolving door’ approach to senior management recruitment. You seem particularly concerned about Sami Zouari’s reasons for departure which, as I have explained, we are not allowed to discuss for legal reasons.
And I don’t accept your contention that you’ll end up being an overpaid Project Manager. Certainly your success will inevitably be measured by the increase in production to 110k bopd in timely fashion and within budget. But that’s not all.
You’ll also become fabulously wealthy in a few short years, and that matters to us all.
As to the possibility of acquisition and its impact on your position, as I said last night, this should not concern you. Your primary task is to oversee the application of the appropriate capital spend at the appropriate time and in an appropriate manner.
Any acquisition activity should remain distinct from operational requirements, and will be managed away from the Operational cauldron with specialist advice.
So I would ask you again to consider your position (as I said to Sami!! lol ).
If it’s simply a matter of remuneration, I feel sure we can come to an acceptable resolution.
In any event, I will call you tomorrow to discuss these matters further. Tempus fugit and all that.
Please don’t be difficult….we really need you for Investor Relations purposes. Bravedog and tom_the_bomb are getting ugly....
Nice , GKP should be sold in a month too BD.
Thanks all of you for your support. Getting better and should be fit within a month.
Hard to know FH1 , wouldn't out it past the Kurds to play one against the other and who could blame them after they have being shafted so brutally and so regularly. Re HCL if the MOC has share holders than that would matter ( some what ) but if it's a NOC then no issue.
Yep up for sale. Probably the reason why CFO has left and no new one announced. Who’d want the job. Expect they will anounce that some internal person has been shadowing and will continue until the sale. Waiting for O&G agreement to be announced as probably can’t sell GKP without that in place. Baghdad would porbably say that any sale is not legally binding so IOC won’t want to commit. Russians probably not allowed to bid on this one as US have blocked it. Even Chinese might be blocked. Trump will want to see payback for all the military spend.
I cant really see the point in diversifying if the Company is for sale .
GKP has always been a one trick pony - Shaikan.
Stray remember that forecast profits are AFTER taking depreciation charges... hence true cash operating profits will be much higher. EBITDA is a better measure.