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' It's like you love to fight windmills, straw ones at that.'
That Don Quixote analogy would have worked much better if you'd tied it to the actual quote, which was 'tilting at windmills' not 'fighting' them.
And I don't know about the reference to 'straw'; not sure Cervantes ever mentioned that!!
Funny though, on several levels, some at your expense.
From the KRG MNR website published yesterday.
https://gov.krd/mnr-en/activities/news-and-press-releases/2024/april/statement-by-the-ministry-of-natural-resources-of-krg/
Nothing has failed.
This is how politics works.
By all means sell.
Numskulls.
Things could change at any moment.
114p and dropping all gains wiped out from yesterday!! GKP never let's you down 90s incoming now .
And down we go again, pump n dump
Turkey tried the goodwill gesture last summer, by opening up the water flows so Iraq could have plenty of water, costing Turkey electricity production and expecting the return of that "goodwill", in crude oil flows.
Iraq gave them nothing, so gesture wont be repeated.
Yes the ministry of oil is saying they are ready for export.
They will most certainly allow free export, whereas the oil companies will not get paid anything at all. The IOC's took all the exploration risk with no infrastructure unlike the known easy oil in Iraq, where in many cases it was already producing and access was good. And Iraq thinks it can pay them exactly the same.???, and rip up existing solid contracts.
I also would like your house and car, but I wont give you anything for them?
Iraqi Government Spokesman Bassem Awadi:
- Companies with existing contracts with the KRG must transfer those contracts to the Iraqi Ministry of Oil.
- The issue of KRG oil exports has already been resolved and agreed upon with Turkey, so an agreement between the KRG and the Iraqi government should be reached too.
@KurdishFrontNews
Source: hxxps :// t. me/ KurdishFrontNews/7183
Dated yesterday afternoon.
The Erdogan visit to Eribl, which was the catalyst many had waited for as milestone for when export could move again, failed completely. Back to square one again.
I think the next meaningful milestone to watch for is announcements from APIKUR/IOCs/GKP.
Baghdad oil minister is on record requesting oil, "we're ready for export", etc. I don't see them doing anything else on this matter.
KRG government making noises but essentially impotent at this stage. I don't see how they can do anything more here.
Ball is in IOC/APIKUR court...
Wait 15 months /or/ arbitration /or/ hurry up and sign new contracts (maybe concurrently pursuing KRG for monies owed through courts).
Therefore, I think the next time we hear anything meaningful will be from IOCs/APIKUR. Hopefully an update will come soon.
This stock does surprise, so I would not do for a huge retrace.
In Europe out means out, in Iraq no agreement means no agreement yesterday.
Also the Arab culture is completely different to ours. For example we saw the same old delaying tactics used yesterday, but pointedly no agreement for more water either. They could be totally at loggerheads one day and about to have a military conflict, the next following a brief small slipping in of a "arrangement envelope", best of friends and saying he wants you to to marry his daughter.
Belgrano that’s heavy.
When I first purchased GKP shortly after the pipe closure I knew next to nothing about Middle Eastern values and politics. No after all of this time and the advice of many including the sensible post that you and some post. I can confidently say that I know and understand far less.
What are people expecting today ?? A huge sell off after the bloomberg article or a massive rise on expectations.
I'll go for a sell off as them meetings this weekend come to nothing which was obvious. Back to were we started Friday I guess and maybe a revisit to the 90s .AIMHO
The future for Iraq is very bleak indeed and will almost certainly become a puppet for Iran, and Iranian militant groups will continue to grow in power. Western companies will continue to pull out, leaving Russian and Chinese ones who have less morals. However they are only after money, so the mass population will continue to starve, and highly likely to become a wasteland rather than a successful metropolis it could become, but ruined by themselves.
I do believe we will carry on like this for another 15 months until the export oil pipeline ends. then its back as previous.
I find it almost unbelievable that Iraqi ministers and some Kurdish ones are actively looking for western investment by western businesses while clearly demonstrating by their own actions and bickering that they are a place you wouldn't touch with a barge pole.
Clearly only companies that will do some sort of investment participation only do so when they hope for very generous returns and not those normally seen.
This is due to corruption on an eye watering scale, and backsliding on cast iron contracts.
There will be no agreement until the ICG, and many investors, drop this foggy view that the KRG are a rogue region. And that the only progress is for IOCs via APIKUR to throw in with the ICG. Its not for IOCs to decide that. They may be physically and financially present in Kurdistan but they are not emotionally or politically invested. They just have to accept their 'football' status and go with KRG and ICG decisions. Until the KRG give the nod to renegotiate contracts, they are stuck. If anything, APIKUR should be looking to build leverage. Such as having non-Iraq options. I have never understood why GKP has not invested elsewhere in the world instead of paying out dividends. They are a weak company. Almost as weak as the KRG. If the KRG really is in descent, some actual independent decision making by JH and board might send the right signals to KRG and ICG that their members are free agents. A bit of independent attitude is needed i think.
While I will say that I was expecting positive agreements yesterday and as such I’m disappointed. However, the politicians have set their serious negotiating stance, and negotiations will continue from that point. I do believe that Iraq have decided that the IOCs will swallow whatever they are offered, which when taking account of Iraq’s requirement from Western investments, should be palatable if not good. At that point, whenever that might be, my core holding in GKP acquired @136 average price will be more valuable.
In the meantime as I’ve reduced my recommendation to hold and therefore my 114p ‘day trade’ had to be closed before I achieved my 15% target. Never mind 10% s okay, certainly better than nothing if I’d been stupid enough to wait and buy for the 90p that a bird brain predicted a few day ago.
"I agree a united front has been and continues to be strong, but when do we reach the point where it becomes counterintuitive, delaying the point where IOCs individually will need to negotiate individually and directly with ICG/SOMO? I don't know when that point is, but ultimately I think there will come a point where the IOCs will have to go and work out their own terms."
The ICG has, by and large, not yet decided to engage with the IOCs directly. On the contrary, they are largely avoiding the discussion. (In my opinion they're still focused on bringing the KRG to heel.) Until then, it make immense sense to continue for the IOCs to voice a united front and an expectation that current contract terms must be honoured, while at the same time voicing a keen willingness to get back to work (so-to-speak) for Iraq. JH and the others need the ICG/Somo to engage seriously. They will - when they're ready to. In no way is APIKUR a negotiating body for the individual IOCs. They're a PR strategy and a means of expressing a united front to the ICG. That's it.
I like him (Caggins), and I think he has been measured and appropriate in his communications (speaking, content and frequency). I just wonder when it is that individual ICOs like GKP start to negotiate directly with Baghdad - at that stage, contracts will be negotiated on a company by company basis.
So APIKUR can only take us (the collective IOCs) up to a point. When is that point?
A few months ago, after months of no progress, Caggins rightly upped the rhetoric by alluding to (every so gingerly but enough to convey a change in tone) about how US taxpayer funds are given in aid while ICG refuses to open the pipeline; about the issue of sanctions on Iraqi banks; even saying outright that ICG have publicly issued misleading statements (all true).
ICG fired shots back with statements saying that (paraphrasing here) they are the one's who are suffering the most from the pipeline shut-in, and that it is the IOCs who have not handed contracts over, and expect money for contracts ICG deem illegal and were never party to.
Then there was the American trip, and so far nothing material has followed for IOCs in Kurdistan.
So how far can we go, in terms of the collective rhetoric? I agree a united front has been and continues to be strong, but when do we reach the point where it becomes counterintuitive, delaying the point where IOCs individually will need to negotiate individually and directly with ICG/SOMO? I don't know when that point is, but ultimately I think there will come a point where the IOCs will have to go and work out their own terms.
I would love a scenario where ICG cave and say "yes boys, you're owed the money and we're going to pay you out the budget and then bill KRG later" or "we'll co-opt your PSCs based on their current terms" or some other work-around, but the reality is ICG are not under pressure to give ground on any of that, nor would they want to. And I do not see how IOCs collectively or individually have any meaningful leverage to shift that.
Therefore, I could be wrong, but now that the US trip has concluded and Erdogan's visit has also concluded, bar any meaningful news tomorrow, it seems next steps are either APIKUR think about arbitration, or the IOCs start to - publicly or not - talk to ICG and ascertain the shape of their new (legal) contracts.
Just some thoughts.
Wishing you all the best
I find Myles Caggins voice grating. The way he slowly speaks and pronounced each word makes me want punch his face.
That is until I realised why he is doing that. All his interviews are with people speaking Arabic or Sorani so he speaks slowly to give the interpreter time to understand and translate.
Look up on LinkedIn to see why he is the guy for the job:
“ I maintain extensive media, government, and diplomatic contacts and strategic relationships throughout Washington, D.C., and the Middle East—particularly in Iraq, Kurdistan region, and northeastern Syria.”
“ Active Top Secret/SCI clearance.”
Looks like the best person for the job.
ATB to all shareholders
Baghdad’s maneuvering here is intended to lead to the revocation of the KRG’s semi-autonomous status, and international oil companies are now being pressured to sign new contracts with Bagdad for their oil and gas operations on Kurdish territory.
Source: oilprice com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Kurdish-Media-Allege-OPEC-Request-for-Resumption-of-Oil-Exports-to-Turkey.html
Company/APIKUR Update soon?
Just a reminder that Rex Wempen (ex-army) was at the time treated like royalty with authorization to walk into most government buildings without exemption at his own behest. (According to Tod Kozel's evidence) so maybe ex-army does carry some gravitas in this region.
You miss my point. ' All for one and one for all' still has considerable value at this stage. JH and GKP should work in close cooperation with the other members of APIKUR (regardless of what you think of their appointed PR guy).
One of the things I find amusing about you Straycat is that you pick arguments against notions that no one here (certainly no one of right mind) supports or would support. It's like you love to fight windmills, straw ones at that. I'd be astonished if anyone here thinks Myles IS the answer.
Enjoy your evening.
'For now there's strength in numbers'...
Wow! Have you looked at the 'strength' of the other members/numbers?
Come on PUTUP, just DYR.