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"Nearly every post is a rampantly ramp, never have i seen a post urging caution or announcing you have sold or reduced. "
Yup, no clue Opu. I wonder how his partner feels about being stuffed with stock a lot higher up. Still together?
"The majority of future revenue therefore will be realised in the local market"
I certainly hope this isn't the case. If so, I'd be out.
CCC
That the post of the day could not agree more
Not back in but watching, need a bit more evidence and what the new deal looks like for GKP, not fussed in getting in as low as possible with plenty of opportunity as and when any guaranteed deal is done.
https://www.turkiyenewspaper.com/politics/22050
Experts optimistic about resolution of Iraq-Türkiye oil export issue during Erdogan's visit.
2024-04-21 14:36:53 | Last update : 2024-04-21 15:46:42
Experts foresee resolution of Iraq-Türkiye oil export deadlock during Erdogan's upcoming visit, potentially easing tensions between Erbil and Baghdad
Afternoon Opti, see you have decided to grace us with your expertise once again after nearly a year out of posting.
Be careful in accusing others of " comedy gold posts ".
Hows all those buys in GKP, GENL over a year ago doing? and i must raise with you the complete calamity of COPL which you were daily ramping away and telling everyone to buy buy buy like you said you were doing 14p and above.
Nearly every post is a rampantly ramp, never have i seen a post urging caution or announcing you have sold or reduced.
Your were telling all that you were buying GKP a year ago and don't panic as oil will be flowing a a couple of months.
I am sorry to say you come with a health warning.
Stop talking nonsense Broadfraud … For clarity and generally speaking, oil with a higher API commands better prices however when API is too high the molecular chains become shorter and less valuable to refineries. Heavy crude plays a very important part in blending.
How altruistic of people to buy GKPs unwanted and worthless crude to keep them in business all these years.
The usual pony written by certain posters with an agenda, lol.
So, nobody wants our Oil :( ….. maybe BAR-Z Energy will take it off our hands for a few $s a bbl.
As if !
How laughable is broad fords comments that GKP oil is not wanted !!!!
He never has had a good word or comment on the GKP board since his pal Tony left
GLA LTH the Guy is pure comedy
Appreciate the input! On the topic of API-blend: how did all the IOCs + Kirkuk manage to send oil at the same time for years, considering the difference in API. (I recognize there's a difference - I'm just not simply savvy enough understanding how it works coming to the pipeline).
Although not all lines inside of Iraq has been repaired just yet, the ITP on Turkey side still holds 1.6million barrel/day capacity as per original design. From my understanding, the KRI pipes (and there are several) to Peshkabur is still intact - but the domestic Iraqi's are not. Assuming everything is repaired, can they co-feed the ITP from several sources? From my understanding, NOC doesn't have 1.6m b/d capacity nor that ambition.
Are you saying that all GKP/DNO/SNM sales will continue to be local via trucking, even though the PSCs are either honoured or transferred and exports are restarted? If that's the case, that's huge. Haven't read that take just yet.
Thanks
As putup tangentially says, the future will be no reflection of the past.
Do not forget that, as SOMO are now in the driving seat and seem determined to reintroduce the Kirkuk Export Blend, only a fraction of Shaikan's output can be accommodated in that blend (it's simply too heavy and pulls down the export blend API). The majority of future revenue therefore will be realised in the local market - with consequences for agreeing the FDP and associated large Capex projects. Note also that SOMO and NOCo will, to a great extent, now determine how that FDP will look, with the MNR relegated to a subsidiary role.
@alexeliasson I recommend you do some work understanding the CRP and it's depletion. You will have a better understanding of just what generated the free cash flow (available for dividends) in the past versus what can happen going forward in a reopening scenario. ATB
Source: kurdistan24.net/ckb/story/256368
"The Iraqi Council of Ministers has prepared an amendment to the 2024 budget law and is waiting for Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Sudani to return to Washington for final review and then sent to the House of Representatives"
Article mainly focusing on the overall budget deficit, no mention of KRG/oil exports... Would think that those issues are baked into the amended document...?
Erdogan's visit will witness signing of strategic agreement which will include process of resuming Iraqi oil exports through Turkey.
https://twitter.com/john78846295/status/1781632368735875391?s=19
My model currently values GKP at £1.08 on local sales forever and with current cash at $90 mill.
When I purchased GKP@ 114 on Thursday I did so in the expectation that the President of Turkey will turn up and appear alongside the Prime Minister of Iraq smiling with regards to an agreement. Friday’s share price however took a different view, just another false dawn perhaps.
Now I’m given to understand that Erdogan will also visit Kurdistan during that one single day. If this is not the long awaited opportunity to announce a pipeline agreement what can it be. Border security perhaps, or nothing substantial as indicated by the current 112 share price, which is very often right.
I’m in this up to my eyebrows so here’s hopping and we shall see soon.
Apparently I'm unable to post links.
According to company guidance we're looking at ~$40m of FCF this year (lower end) and thus the net cash position should reach at least $120m by year end. With that in mind, I do believe we're looking at dividends already in Q3 this year; 10-14% of market cap can be distributed and they will be in the same financial position as when the year started.
If we look at the years 2021 and 2022 their realised oil price was $49 and $74 respectively, and production hovered at 40-44k bop/d. That was sufficient to produce $122m and $266m respectively. In a reopening scenario, it's hard to envision anything less than +50% dividend yield in 2025. GKP will probably earn more in FCF in 2025 than its entire enterprise value going into the year 2025. Wild stuff, to be honest.
On the other hand, the ITP might be shut-in forever or contracts heavily renegotiated to the downside.
With that in mind, I consider GKP being one of the best risk/return cases available in the market.
Are my numbers similar to yours? Let me know. Cheers
Hi gents,
Entered GKP in the mid 90's a couple of weeks back. Sharing an excerpt from my sheet below: building my numbers on company guidance for 2024 and then using equity research consensus for 2025 and 2026. Not only does it look really cheap, the case works even if the ITP is shut-in permanently. IMHO.
Link: [LINK REMOVED]
"Meanwhile, 33,829,000 barrels of oil "
It is actually 34,450,000 barrels. The 1,357 B ID is equal to approximately $1 B, which means average local price of c. $29/bbl, more than half of which goes to the KRG after paying the IOCs (including cost oil) and that is a lot more than $6/bbl obviously!
The KRG Ministry of Natural Resources has provided the following information to the Iraqi-KRG joint financial monitoring audit teams regarding oil production in the Kurdistan Region for the year 2023:
The KRG produced 93,829,000 barrels of oil, of which 31,000,000 barrels were exported through the KRG-Turkey pipeline until March 25th. 11,816,000 barrels were handed over to Iraq, while 16,563,000 barrels were allegedly sold to commercial refineries at a mere $7.5 per barrel, despite being commercially traded rather than for domestic use.
Meanwhile, 33,829,000 barrels of oil are unaccounted for. The Kurdistan Region claims to have sold this oil directly to refineries for 1,357,000,000,000 Iraqi dinars. However, according to Omar, this represents smuggled oil transported by trucks to neighboring countries, concealed under the guise of refinery sales.
The reported oil revenues for 2023 stand at $3.621 billion, while expenditures are reported at $3.67 billion, leaving the KRG with a mere $554 million in revenue for the entire year. Based on the KRG's reported numbers, the Kurdistan Region has received only $6 per barrel sold in 2023.
So tread carefully AKIPUR…. remember that the Bar-z organisation recently registered a specific company to find, recover, process, transport and market hydrocarbon products.
I know that verbal contracts are not worth the paper they are written on but didn’t realise it also applies to written ones with the KRG.
Apart of course if you are DANA and have leverage through very high API oil and condensate, for some reason Shaikan crude doesn’t have the same bargains power.
I wonder are what stage the BOD realised that was the case?
Before signing?!
After X months, where X has a value of ?
So unenforceable contracts with the KRG versus some within the FGI making it very clear that APIKUR is seen as meddling in Iraqi politics and are very keen to show the IOCs the route to the exit door.
"Were they contracts and if so why did the company never take legal action to enforce them?"
The company does not even dare! The KRG doeth what the KRG wanteth to do!
- KBT pricing
- non payments without warning or explanation
- unspecified delays
- not bringing in a third party as well as taking part themselves as per the original PSC.
All happened in the past decade or so of GKP's miserable history.
ALL sides are being economical with the truth...
That’s a Bizarre statement, what are you implying?
That our BOD are hiding something????