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Thanks paddy i agree with you on this. Using current info aka what’s there to march is what they l use and let’s be honest they haven’t really delved into what Haverion really could be and what else we know ie via your paddysat
Also the fact sandeep can’t stop talking about Havieron is the biggest giveaway and fact they said themselves their biggest era find is Havieron
Main takeaway is that we’re on the analysts radar meaning that come interims and all the news flow we will keep getting revised and better analysis from the big boys showing how big this will be
Hold for gold
"So basically they will add Hav ore to telfur ore and have a teir 2 facility, but Hav would still be a teir 1 mine ?"
I read it as saying that if the costs associated with processing are split between Have and Telfer, that then reduces the cost associated with Telfer and turns Telfer (not Hav) into Tier Two. Key paragraph:
"The combined operation could then turn Telfer into a tier-2 asset. Newcrest defines such a gold asset as more than 200,000 ounces per annum with over 10 years of life at costs of less than US$900/oz."
The combined op reduces the Telfer costs to less than US$900/oz.
It's not saying anything about what Hav is. It's saying that Hav processing means all the processing costs don't have to be attributed to Telfer anymore and makes Telfer look better than it did previously.
So basically they will add Hav ore to telfur ore and have a teir 2 facility, but Hav would still be a teir 1 mine ?
Should we get some very good/excellent step-out and breccia results in the interim report things could be quite different. It's an evolving situation, as we all know, and so far that situation has, and hopefully will continue to, continue giving!
Here's the relevant bit about Havieron from the article - they are actually saying that the COMBINED Telfer / Havieron operation could become a Tier 2 operation. That would be because the 'combined' AISC would be materially higher than the AISC of Havieron high grade on it's own IMO.
Havieron
Ord Minnett highlights that both Red Chris and Havieron are brownfield projects and capital expenditure is manageable. Meanwhile, Havieron is looking more likely to UBS. Newcrest is yet to report a resource or reserve, or a mine plan a feasibility study for that matter.
Yet based on current reserves and mine plans Telfer is valued at around US$160m and UBS suspects the addition of 2mtpa of high-grade ore could sustain production at around 400,000 ounces per annum for over 10 years and cut costs to around US$900/oz (AISC).
The combined operation could then turn Telfer into a tier-2 asset. Newcrest defines such a gold asset as more than 200,000 ounces per annum with over 10 years of life at costs of less than US$900/oz.
Meanwhile, Macquarie believes the Fruta del Norte mine, for which the company has recently obtained finance (becoming a subordinated lender to the owner, Lundin Gold, and taking a 32% equity ownership) materially boosts the earnings outlook and should sustain production at over 2m ozpa for the next five years.
On the downside, Newcrest still has the weakest production and earnings growth within the large ASX listed peer group, the broker points out. It also lacks the debt to equity transfer of value expected from peers.
Ord Minnett , too, expects Newcrest will struggle to maintain a production rate of 1.5m ozpa, but calculates that when adding Fruta del Norte, Newcrest could initially maintain 1.8m ozpa before Wafi Golpu comes on board.
I think Hav is currently only reported as just shy of the magic 5moz that's required to get into tier 1. We won't be in this league for long though.
Is that T2 based on all publicly known information? It's a tad presumptuous of them at this stage
I've just read the article Lenz and I think they are just looking at the high grade potential for now and not the longer term potential of the block cave. On the current known mineralisation from the reported drilling then I'd be quite happy to be described as a Tier 2 as we know it's growing every day as we speak.
Also the AISC figure that they have quoted is for the Havieron & Telfer combined ore - this would secure the future of Telfer while NCM can develop the Block Cave hopefully.
We should get a lot more info on this when the MRE & concept studies are released but it's great to see that the Citi, UBS and other big boys are now factoring Havieron into their forecasts for Newcrest - we're becoming indispensable.
ATB - Paddy
I think city might have got this wrong !! Tier 2 ?????
Citi observes Havieron could be a tier-2 asset and the enabler of mine life extensions at Telfer, while buying time to optimise the economics of a longer-dated Telfer block cave.
https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2020/05/27/newcrests-golden-opportunity-becoming-clearer/