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@Bamps, that's one of the benefits of marriage, you never have to look for ways to spend money again! Did no one tell you that in advance?
Hi Tmt
Don't think you will get many takers on ways to spend profits my other half is already spending mine :(((
Maybe I'm missing something..But what are you talking about @1.63% down???
I think today is the last day you will get in here under 13p, from this afternoon and on Monday/Tuesday FOMO will kick in before the next update. Hold tight and good luck all.
FC
This is only going to go one way...up!
numpty...completely ignores the total rise since december and comes on here with a daily move down...even in the last month its hardly moved.
how many of us that are up in the last 6 months are worried about a little red...NONE.
Hi, Bamps. On probability, I think you are right, but lots of finds turn out to be uneconomical to mine. Will some of these? Probably. Will all of them? Probably not but it wouldn't be shocking if that turned out to be the case.
Personally, I'm hoping every one of them makes Hav look like a dwarf, and I get to retire in three years and spend the rest of my life providing a consulting service advising GGP shareholders on creative ways to spend their money!
oilbit.. Do you still expect a 30% fall.. I don,t think It will
Hi Tmt
Regarding your point 1 about assuming no other commercial finds I can't see that being the case from previous RNS
Feb 20 Warrentina "high grade mineralisation found in latest drill results"
Dec 19 Firetower " Latest drilling has proved the connectivity of a broad shallow gold seam and further drills on Firetower east have found zinc and silver deposits"
Nov 19 Black Saddle Reef Prospect, 20 holes drilled "New drill results are considered very positive with several intervals greater than 5g/t gold, indicating the potential for a fertile gold system at Blackhills"
Just a few but I feel the risks of not finding anything else has already been minimalised to practically zero.
The fact GH has reported Havieron to be in an arcuate zone NW /SE is also a major item as that infers Scallywag is also in it. The major gold fields of the world are found in Arcuate Zones such as Oregon and New Guinea .
Very exciting times ahead!
I agree, Tom.
The money we have here, we had to work to earn. I wouldn't have it here if I thought there was much risk. Part of me wishes I'd bought in when I first saw you talking about GGP on the TW board, I'd be a lot better off now. But the risk was a lot higher back then. That we bought, and then added, and then added again, says more than words about how I view the risk here.
I could say "good luck" but I think with this share, that's coming to mean "we have had good luck" rather than "I hope we will have good luck."
TomE the current consolidation i think is excellent news. The price is stable and will move again once the news flow starts. There are far too many shares on AIM that spike and drop erratically to entice traders who mostly end up losing most of their initial investment. This is an investment opportunity and a very rare one at that. This company a year or so back had 4 million in the bank, had drilled some holes in some licenses they owned and were following a sound strategy. Scratch to a year on and the CEO of one of the biggest mining companies in the world is having to use most of his investment call to talk about/ answer questions on the Havieron opportunity.
San
TMT hi,
Thanks for your reply and it sounds good to me. Let's hope we do not see it retrace back that far if we hit a glitch. I stand firm and believe we will hit good times for all those that have had the patience to hold on.
ATB
Tom:-)))
@TomE
No, I do not have any doubt that Hav will be mined. Yes, there are major events that could sabotage that but none are within the realm of likelihood that investors should consider in their investment decisions.
I do not think the current SP is entirely safe, though. The term for it is "substantially de-risked," not "entirely de-risked". I believe it would require all of the following to undercut the current SP:
1. No substantial economical-to-mine resources on any GGP tenements outside of Havieron. (Obviously, if we find significant gold or copper anywhere else the SP is substantially underpriced.)
2. No significant increase in the currently-known resource at Havieron.
3. No significant (25% or more) increase in the price of gold.
4. No sale of our share of Havieron at a good price.
5. Unforeseen delays to production at Havieron creating signficant cash pressures.
Put all that together, and if all that happens we might see a drop in SP from current levels, perhaps as low as 5-6p.
#1, if it happened, would be disappointing but not (to me) all that surprising. The rest, though, I think are all pretty unlikely. I think all the evidence points to there being substantially more gold than currently reported in Hav. I think the price of gold is going up. I think delays in production are very unlikely.
And I think it's very likely that an offer for our share of Hav will be made, perhaps not until around this time next year when more will be known of its size, that will fully justify the current SP, plus. Whether that offer will be accepted or whether the BOD will decide there is better shareholder value by holding it and mining, I don't know, but I expect the offer to be made.
I'd put the risk of the current SP not being exceeded within one year from now at less than 5%, and probably less than 1%. It's not "no risk" but it's not that far off it.
Floater, Take a leaf out of Merc's book.
Take your current pensions & transfer them into a SIPP, buy GGP shares with the proceeds and sit back, knowing that whatever you decide to invest will at worse, Double.
I did exactly the same as Merc & have decided to quit the rat race having seen my initial outlay of £220k significantly grow this year. All the crap I see posted on here about not having all your eggs in one basket, is in this instance, posted by people who will never grow a pair. They say they are investors, My Ar5e. They play at this like roulette, placing their chips all over the board hoping that they may hit a number.
What's that saying about don't look a gift horse in the mouth. Well in this case, you can count its bloody teeth.
Good luck in whatever you choose to do, act upon your own decision's.
sAs
Thanks, all, for the advice. Yes, maybe I'm getting a carried away thinking of all the gold at the end of the (GGP) rainbow will provide a good return and not stopped to look at other options. So probably a SIPP would be the best path; and I'll investigate this and start learning how to manage my money matters better.
Floater,
Why cash it out and get hit by the tax.
Move it all into a private pension (As I did with all of my 5 smallish pots totalling £150k , into a fund with AVIVA who have been more than happy to purchase GGP shares on my behalf).
You can still take your 25% tax free at a later date (when it's far larger) and draw down what you need as you need it.
The only thing you'll have to worry about is exceeding the Lifetime Allowance when this really kicks off! ;-)
Floater - transfer the lot to a sipp and manage it all yourself
I love your story Merc and hopefully all the best to you and to everyone else who is in here for a good return.
I'm in GGP for about 85% of my share spread but there is not a lot of money in the other shares. What I have invested I can afford to lose but would be gutted if it went drastically down.
I recently got my annual statements for two frozen pensions from my old employer one for £70k and one for £40k; they are invested in different funds. So they are jointly worth £110k and last year the combined increase for both was approx £4100 (not bad) but the split was £4k increase on the £70k pension and £96 increase (yes 96 pounds) on the £40k pension - to say I was a wee bit shocked was an understatement, and a few expletives were let loose.
To add to that somewhat gloomy news, then the forecast for me to retire at 60 could be that I receive a combined yearly pension of £2150 - WHAT !! are you kidding ?? so sitting with a pension pot of £110K and getting £2150 a year then it would take 50 years to empty the pot with a life expectancy of 110. Yes, I would like to live a long life, but 110 is very unlikely.
So I have decided to cash out the tax free 25% and will be investing that in GGP shares; I will miss the expected share price increase next week, but there is still room to grow. I am now seriously thinking of taking the lot out, take the tax hit and then stick all of it on GGP to try and hit 2x-3x on what I'll put in - yes it's a gamble but I think it could be an achievable goal in a couple of years.
Just got to convince the wife, who thinks I'm positively mad.
Love it!
and Bottle is a Dronie. :)
Spratt greater expectations thats all. :-))
Many thanks. Those who appear so knowledgeable on this board what do you think the best and worst share price may be (assuming positive news of some kind next week) over time? Other places and sources are full of people shouting the odds and making up numbers but there appears to be some very experienced people here. Thanks in advance for your thoughts. As I said I am late to the party.
TomE I remember not too long ago you said you would sell at 15p..now it’s 20-25p??
ChristopheB i hope for all our sakes that doesn't happen!
Pennies to Pounds - Yes, he did sell some shares but this was at the same time as he purchsed a significantly larger number. The sale was simply to fund the tax element of the benefit and is a common practice when taking up options.
Regards
RA
Mercman - All this talk about you and your wife, mirrors and spreadbetting positions!!! What sort of film would this be??
Let's all hope that the educated "gamble" works for all of us.
Regards
RA