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IMHO, there will be no issue whatsoever, with the decision to mine being positive.
What's always slightly amused me is the fact that there is already a 'Havieron Mine Closure Plan' in place, for when we're (whoever at that time) done! All part of the Department of Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety (DMIRS) and EPA requirements.
https://www.epa.wa.gov.au/sites/default/files/Referral_Documentation/Appendix%20D%20Havieron%20Mine%20Closure%20Plan.pdf
As long as they disclose all relevant info the there’s no issue. Also GGP are party to all the drilling results.
Your wrong . They have insider information on Havieron.
That’s not true CB1984. They can make an offer at any point.
Rotherby, I’m hoping that is the case and things get better after the 5%. However part of me also thinks there is a strong chance the games will continue. The negotiations have become protracted which could lead to NCM paying substantially more now that it’s going to independent assessor. Although the presumed difference between the two valuations would be big to us, to NCM it would be loose change. Therefore it’s reasonable to assume they are after the lot and the games won’t stop after the 5%.
Newcrest cannot make a bid for greatland. They have privileged information regards to Havieron, law stops them making a bid for takeover. DYOR.
Morning Paddy - I agree that the chances of ground condition stopping the 'official' decision to mine once we get down to rock is very very slight, but still think it is there.
At this moment in time with the current concentration Havieron is GGP, in the longer term once we get over the next 12/18 months then you are right that GGP is not just all about Havieron.
antigua - NCM are in a situation where they want the 5% as cheap as possible, GGP want as much as possible, pur business nothing else, once deal is done expect business as usual.
If we are to believe NCM aren’t interested in a buyout at this time then why all the games, not releasing an updated resource and stopping the 6 weekly drilling updates. Not to mention SB toning down his enthusiasm over the past year.
Also why would anyone risk playing round taking out shorts when the share price could accelerate at any point with news in the near term.
Hi Rotherby, there won't be any problems with ground conditions once they are down into the protozeoric rocks where the mineralisation is. The only issue with the ground conditions is the overlying permian sands that have made the progress with the decline so slow up to now.
I'm thinking along the same lines as you - that NCM would be prepared to pay a higher figure when we are mining if they can justify their ROC figure when the understand they have a Tier1 mine that will return them big profits over 30,40 or 50 years.
There's no guarantee that GGP shareholders would take the deal in 3/4 years time either though - if the economics are as compelling as we hope they are then we may never vote any deal through. People who want their £1 per share may find that's achievable by selling up their shares at that point, especially if Shaun achieves his ambition of being a "MULTI" asset company be that through the drill-bit or through inorganic growth as he keeps on mentioning.
GGP is not just all about Havieron - albeit's a rather large part of the picture at the moment.
ATB - Paddy
Ipad - there is never a pint in time than NCM are not in the position of being an insider, so they cannot make a bid they could talk to GGP about the other 25%, but GGP would have to issue a RNS if they did, as very material to share value.
I think Paddy is correct they(NCM) have other things to do which will be better received by there big investors, They can come back when GGP have other assets and pay a big price to get the 25% after we are mining and they know fully what they are buying.
I short, a take over IMO is very unlikely, the other big boys do not want 25% of Havieron, it would be a distraction to their other investment NCM control the venture.
With the DFS and the official decision to mine, GGP will have a substantial value, although I think unofficially the decision has been made by the JV partners, and the only thing that could prevent it is ground conditions making mining impossible.
Paddy..
I read this as saying that an insider (NCM) can't build a stake but can make a bid, with all inside information being disclosed.
Any corporate lawyers around ?
The article was on sharecafe.com.au, should have given them credit in the previous post.
Link below to an Aussie article referencing Havieron. It’s about Nifty and how it’s life is being extended further as a multi decade mine. It just reinforces the value of the Paterson region, and as the article says:
“ Telfer, Havieron, Winu and Nifty have ignited or rather re-ignited interest in this huge area of desert.
Nifty was one of the earliest discoveries in the area in 1980 by Western Mining after the old Newmont’s Telfer prospect became a goer in 1977. Telfer is now owned by Newcrest (the descendant of BHP Gold) and its Havieron prospect (held with Greatland Gold of London) and associated discoveries are now slowly being turned into one, large mining centre.”
Havieron stands up there in the same sentence now with grand old assets such as Nifty and Telfer. Worth keeping that in mind.
All this chat of take-overs made me have a look through the take-over code and rules.
https://www.burges-salmon.com/news-and-insight/publications/guide-to-public-takeovers-in-the-uk#offer-structures
Very interesting paragraph in there :-
"Insider dealing
If a bidder possesses inside information in relation to a target, the insider dealing rules mean that the bidder will not be able to acquire any shares in the target company until the information ceases to be inside information. The fact that the bidder is considering making an offer for the target company can, of itself, constitute inside information. However, if the bidder does not possess any inside information other than the knowledge that it expects to make an offer for the target, it should still be possible for the bidder to acquire shares before the announcement of the offer without breaching the relevant insider dealing legislation."
The fact that NCM have continuously updated drill results, XRF readings, Modelling of the ore-body, etc, etc that is not available to the market would IMO give them insider knowledge and prohibit them from building a stake in GGP and I think they would need to halt exploration drilling and cleanse themselves of all information before they could even make a bid - I'd appreciate if there were a lawyer with experience who could confirm this though as it's only my opinion.
Were this to happen - our SP would rocket on the speculation that a bid would be incoming. All this leads me to believe that NCM are more than likely not involved in any nefarious practices (apart from downplaying Havieron recently) in regards to the SP - if there is manipulation going on then it's more likely to be a group of spivs who are playing on our emotions.
All in my humble opinion and please DYOR - Paddy
Think Shaun was aware of a possible low ball offer when he did the placing. Whilst I wasn’t happy at the time in hindsight I say all credit to him and the Bod. This has put us in a good cash position on the balance sheet and bought us time to reject/ negotiate any silly offers made which may not have been the case if the cash was not there to move forward.
Also that cash gives other options for debt finance moving forward should NCM try to tighten any screws, if they even are.
I like many am grateful to the previous management for the path they set GGP on, but am totally convinced the current Bod with Shaun’s shrewd financial understanding will get us to a destination dreams are made of.
Mining is a slow, laborious and costly journey, but for those that get there the riches are incredible.
Patience will be rewarded
All IMHO
Personally I think if Newcrest were to make a move for a minority JV share it would be more probable that it would be for Imperial Metals 30% share of Red Chris.
That would mean they had 100% control over both the Canadian mines in BC.
After all Red Chris is a Tier1 orebody and Havieron/Telfer is still only a Tier2 (according to NCM).
They are guaranteed to take their 5% of Havieron which gives them the 75% that they initially want - I still think any offer for 100% of Havieron is a distance away yet and if they decide to go for it and it gets put to shareholders they will need to be 100% sure of getting it across the line as it would tie their hands for another 12 months before they could make another offer.
ATB - Paddy
He’ll have no say if an offer is made and there’s a vote ,if 75% of the votes cast say yes , deal done ,the only question is how many votes can newcrest count on ? , he’ll probably reject the first offer, but there’s still the possibility someone else may bid against a low offer.
If Pacific Trends ( or whoever they are called now), gets their 145 million shares, it would be a handy amount of shares for Newcrest to acquire to add to the stock they are probably collecting now.
Interesting if it happened.
I have to disagree.
IMHO, an offer(s) for a 100% buyout of Havieron has been on the cards for many months now, indeed probably well over a year, or two now. Newcrest Mining will, IMHO, want to have 100% control of Havieron, without any doubt in my mind, whatsoever, which I've said continuoulsly. HOWEVER, the big question is what they're prepared to pay! This is the crux of the issue, but, it doesn't diminish what I personally believe is patently obvious.
If you look back at Newcrests history they are not buying explorers/developers. They buy working mines. They have a large II investor base to appease. I personally see a lot of T/O talk here and on Telegram constantly and I feel it’s a little scaremongering or possibly insecurity stemming from seeing paper losses fall away. We don’t know what’s going to come in the future however I have a positive disposition that the Lassonde Curve will play out for GGP. Hold for gold.
MH01 that’s a v good point, like the DFS and decision to mine will be a point at which institutions might start to be more likely to really buy in , NCM will need such evidence corporately for any buyout.
I agree 100% @MH01, we've been told on numerous occasions that Newcrest are a big old lumbering beast of a company that go through the motions and are ultra-conservative in their approach to everything to do with assessment of resources and therefore will follow the same format with regards to a TO bid for Havieron.
Their time to come in with a lowball offer was 2.5 years ago when they could have comfortably bought us out for peanuts but the same thing that stopped them making a 10p / share offer then will stop them making a 20p / share (or whatever) until after the DFS and the decision to mine is complete. The problem for them is that we (and the market) will have an even better understanding of the overall structure and endowment of Havieron by then and the price will have increased even more.
I couldn't care less either way - the risk / reward here is skewed massively in our favour IMO, I know of a few high profile fund managers who agree and are happy buying more at these levels.
Another week closer to resolution of the negotiations, another week closer to interim results, etc, etc.
Tick tock - they can't keep throwing money at it forever if PI's won't relinquish their hold on their tickets.
GLA - Paddy
Newcrest has not officially decided to mine Hav, a FS is yet to come. Nothing will happen without such formal documentation in order for Newcrest to explain any T/O to its own shareholders. I think common sense needs to return here folks.
Good morning All
To me if there is to be a low ball offer for 100% HAV it would have to be soon!
Reason it will get rejected and then they will have a chance of a 2nd,3rd or 4th offer before mining!
In my eyes the offer has to come soon or not at all.
All in my opinion of course