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very odd sp movements all over the place especially after hours, touching £1.70 down to £1.61, finished at 1.635. Hope it steers its way back towards £2.00 tomorrow!
And yet we sit here with a price to earnings that after a good run has tipped up and over 3.........three!
The good news for the patient investor (I'm 10 years in on FXPO) is that even at p/e of 3 we can raise the price via expanding our production capability to give more earnings. The market will or wont catch up but at 3 there is a lot of room for even a slight improvement in sentiment or view of risk - to say 4 - would give us a 33% rise....let alone a more normal low p/e of say 6.....
I realise we are seen as a risky asset, but we are also a fantastic steady producer and have been resilient both financially and geopolitically (when the Russia crisis was a real concern) - And in a new world where a new underlying prevalent risk has appeared for the "safer" assets such as retailers, services, outsourcers, etc, maybe our level of risk is not quite as bargepole esque in magnitude from the bunch or as left of field for an II to propose as a target. would you rather invest in our known risk or back a restaurant that could be closed again in October if phase 2 of CV19 appears?
IMHO we are going to drift upwards to £2 (maybe quicker if there is a positive AGM update on 28th May) and then spike to £2.50-£300 on the next set of results update - 5th August I think (where I also think we will be announcing we are net cash free of debt, and announcing new capacity capital investment programme). Thats my view and I have put my money where my mouth is... remember - £3 is p/e of 6....our resource is good for 80+ years, our output can be almost doubled with investment plan already drafted and considered and we are hoovering in cash at a great rate. Economically we are likely to see infrastructure investment to boost economies worldwide and this will lead to demand for steel and hopefully a continuation of the strong pellet price for a couple more years at least.
prices set to climb further this year: Brazil’s worsening Covid-19 crisis is making waves in the commodities world with reduced iron ore shipments from the South American country lifting the price of the steel-making material by 30% to almost $100 a ton.
There could be more to come with some analysts forecasting a return to last year’s peak price of $125/t, an unexpected rise also caused by events in Brazil.
Great piece on radio 4 today about Ukraine worth a listen. Not sure if it reassured me or scared me ****less. I remember now about the Comedian becoming president. They've got one in the USA too, o no he's just senile. Well I guess they need a decent company to help with the economics of their country.
Good to see the market beginning to recognise FXPO as decent company it's been a while.
you re right. not yet. but the option is always there on the table. but if they did, FXPO would fly.
I havent heard anything about iron ore tariffs with regards Australia , only barley.....and i think that would be a risky move for the Chinese to go too far, too soon, with regards to Australian tariffs....I cant see them adding an iron ore tarfiff at the moment...
pokerchips- i was wondering since Rio tinto ( more like Australia) is not on the best terms with China at the moment. Does that mean we will benefit from that broken relationship?
Zhevago stepped down last October , although temporarily.
Chris Mawe took over and an acting CFO took over Mawe's role
So now Mawe has returned to his role as CFO and a temporary CEO with experience has been appointed.
Clearly the decision has been made that Zhevago wont return any time soon
The City likes the idea of Mawe doing what he does best and an experienced mining CEO brought in...providing better overall stability and experience
Meanwhile the Chinese are importing lots of iron ore and steel prices there are on the rise...with Fe65 prices returning to increase after a slight dip ...steel mills no doubt trying to make up for lost time of Feb and March
Clearly the news that MrZhevago has stepped down temporarily to try and resolve his differences with the Ukraine government is a step in the right direction and what has been putting a lid on the sp recently. With good results to follow we will hopefully see a better reflection of the value of FXPO in the sp in coming weeks.
Agreed sage. Can't help but think we are in for a good set of HY results. Volume up, iron ore prices strong, fuel and energy costs down, currency weaker. Given divi cut and hopefully lower capex after expansion last year I'm hoping net debt is a decent gap lower at HY. Fingers crossed
very stable. Diverse markets and well run.
Couldn’t agree more with your post though the SP has been fairly stable since the Covid outbreak.Massively undervalued compared to its current PE but then the market has never been a favourite of its murky past. Let’s hope we will be in the 200s soon with the anticipation of higher dividends also.
Despite the current wider turmoil, FXPO seems to be doing very well with the price around where it was prior to COVID - iron holding strong and arguably future demand to soar as infrastructure boom occurs to drive out the coming recession.
I have held FXPO for over 9 years and it is as melodramatic as a share can possibly be. Our sister bank goes bust taking all our cash with it, we almost go bust with the debt level due to investments and now we appear to be concerned about our owner being ousted due to the same bank in the past.
That said, I cant think of a more stable time in the last 9 years - if the year carries on anywhere near what the last rns stated we will end the year debt free and can then put free cashflow towards future development towards increasing capacity. I really fee this will bounce off £2 with some more positive rns....
...but I am never right with this share - hoping today is the start of a charge upwards to reflect a more suitable P/E.
It's fallen the same % as the FTSE so not really FXPO specific.
I hope so. I presume todays fall is due to dividend payout and not a negative outcome of the appeal
With those increased exports, increased iron ore prices, reduced fuel prices and hopefully favourable currency fluctuations FXPO could be on for a another record quarter!
In April 2020, Ukrainian mining and metallurgical companies increased the export of ore and iron ore concentrates by 31.5% compared to the corresponding month last year - to 4.2 million tons. In monetary terms, iron ore exports increased by 24.5% to $ 360, 6 million. This is evidenced by customs statistics.
Compared with March 2020, in April, the export of ore and iron ore concentrates increased by 10.9%, while in real terms, on the contrary, decreased by 10.6%.
In January-April, Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises exported 15.4 million tons of iron ore. This is 21.6% more than in the first four months of 2019.
In the first four months of this year, the country's mining companies increased revenue from export of iron ore by 18.3% compared to the corresponding period last year - up to $ 1.24 million.
The main consumer of Ukrainian iron ore remains China. Its share in Ukrainian exports for four months amounted to 56.42% - this is 4.42 percentage points less compared to January-March 2020. In second place is Poland (10.84%), in third - Austria (6.48%).
According to the results of 2019, Ukraine increased the export of iron ore by 18.5% compared to 2018 - up to $ 3.398 billion. Import of iron ore in the year amounted to 14.245 thousand tons in the amount of $ 1.412 million.
can we expect iron fe 65 to go up tomorrow when china returns back from work ?
Thanks for the replies, I was interested to know why they wanted to sell the mine, what impact it might have on their business either way and why they were not allowed to sell it. I will keep digging. I think I will have some time to get in on this judging by the over all market.
Good analysis R95, I was tempted to buy more at 130p but sadly decided against it.. Might fall a little after the USA opens but I think next week it will start to move higher above 140. Let's see.
Jan 31 (Reuters) - Iron ore pellet producer Ferrexpo Plc FXPO.L said on Friday a Ukrainian court has a put a restriction on the sale of 50.3% of its Swiss unit's shareholding in Ferrexpo Poltava Mining (FPM), one of the London-listed company's mining businesses in Ukraine.
There’s not much info about the court case. You might be able to find something on various bulletin boards but it may need translated.
FXPO is a good steady company that continually generates cash and pays a steady dividend. Demand for iron ore pellets remains strong as various countries will have to spend on infrastructure projects to lift themselves out of this rut.
FXPO have invested in automation to reduce their cost base. They have low debt and should continue to generate record profits benefitting from low fuel prices and favourable currency fluctuations.