Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
In the absence of news, its amazing what theories people come up with to fill the void 😆
Stop trying to second guess whats going on. Its all positive and the research is progressing nicely. Forget big pharmas and let the research speak for itself.
Ultimately, there are real people whose lives are being directly impacted by what SCLP are doing, so let's focus on the big picture.
Honestly I don't see Scancell delisting anytime soon. Simply because they're too focused on getting the research across the line to worry about the stockmarket. Whilst this isn't great for investor updates, it's great for pushing their progress forward.
I've always thought of Scancell as a bunch of scientists who occasionally remember they're a public company and then instantly forget again and go back to the lab! To be fair, this is such an important piece of research they're working on, I'd rather it was that way round.
I believe the company will stay public and a buyout will be coming when the research is sufficiently de-risked. Could be Q4 or Q1 2025, who knows. But it will land with a bang.
And they wonder why the share price is derisory!
Honestly comms needs to be a lot better to keep investors updated.
Appreciate they're busy working on the research but investor relations have always been sub par. Was hoping the new appointees would rectify this but starting to have some doubts. Key opportunities missed.
I say this as a LTH. What they are doing is excellent work but they need to be more open and consistent with their investors.
Mv01
Been through similar with investors in a private company. This being a public company is a lot more complex due to multiple cornerstones and regulatory requirements.
Bringing in new investors tends to be a very convoluted due diligence process to assess risk from multiple angles. It's tedious and like death by a 1000 papercuts because the lawyers ask so many questions and often ask the same ones from multiple angles, which require hours and hours of admin to provide the responses. Don't forget the lawyers are being paid by the hour, so the clock tends to slow right down!
Existing investors will be going over every single projection figure with an absolute fine tooth comb, as will their lawyers. Again the meter is running for the lawyers! Plus they need to discuss witht their board and fit in with their strategy.
Then try coordinating all of those into fitting into one finance package! it's wheels within wheels and very complex.
Also they've only confirmed the final figures recently, so it's not been that long tbh.
Wasa, I don't know the answer to this just guessing but wouldn't the lenders have been given an update on progress in negotiations so far so they agree to the extension?
If I were a lender I'd want to know how things were progressing so I could make a risk assessment.
Wasa, same approach here. Come what may...
When you say total or near total wipeout, if they get the funding what would the new world potentially look like it in a near wipe out situation do you think? and 12 months now? What sort of range do you see the SP at?
We've done the apocalyptic scenario, I'm just musing on the wipeout but company survives scenario, particularly a year/18 months from now.
Mv01, to look at it a slightly different way, on 19th Feb the statement from the iCEO was:
"Further, the CTC estimate is the capital required to complete the construction of Araguaia, commission the project and deliver first metal. The final financing amount will be higher and will depend on a variety of factors including discussions with Senior Lenders, suppliers, cornerstone investors and other third parties."
The final financing amount was confirmed yesterday. So technically it would be unrealistic to expect a deal to have been reached until this figure was confirmed as there would be a danger of going back again for more money.
Shareholders were always going to get screwed as has been mentioned most are in above 80p. Major dilution is going to be a big impact.
I think yesterday's RNS was a 'come to Jesus' moment.
I suspect they have a deal in discussion that involves significant sucking it up requirements which some of the cornerstones are finding a bitter pill to swallow.
Nasr is trying to break the Mexican standoff by painting a brutal picture of what could happen.
Subtext: right we've got the real figures now, stop messing about and come to the table so we avoid pushing ourselves into administration by accident.
This is the bit of the RNS that has me puzzled:
Even if it does [they find a funding solution], the conclusion of any such solution is unlikely to lead to a positive outcome for existing shareholders, noteholders and creditors of the Company.
Now a major dilution would not be positive for shareholders and noteholders, but why would it not be positive for creditors?
That RNS was as clear as mud but inflammatory for sure.
To me, it seems like there are a few possible outcomes:
1. Administration, but my question would be why haven't they done that yet or is a deal really coming down to the wire and its a 50/50 outcome?
2. Deal is agreed but Major, major dilution. There's only 250M shares in issue so not a great surprise.
3. Market is manipulated to position for a very cheap buy out.
I'm holding because we'll I'm in it now and averaging 10.9p so you never know.
But something is definitely going on and it's not being openly discussed in the RNS.
Who else is holding and wants to join on this thread? holders or punters only please. Fully appreciate the opposite viewpoint is valid, but would be helpful to have a discussion with this group .
This is exactly what they said they would do in the 1st Mar RNS. They've got 60 days grace now to focus on the negotiations. It's just confirming the action has been completed.
This is a complex process and there will be round the clock discussions going on behind the scenes. Each current and potential investor will have their legal teams working on due diligence and probably inundating the HZM team with questions, paperwork and meetings. They'll be working their socks off behind the scenes so it's not a surprise they haven't announced progress yet, this is a complex situation with multiple moving parts. They need time to get it done.
The $2M debt to the consultants will have been known about for a while and will be accounted for in liabilities. It may be under dispute or is part of the negotiations package. But it's part of the skeletons in the cupboard that the new CEO is having to deal with.
This is going to be a major dilution, that's what I believe they are signalling. I don't believe administration is what any cornerstone wants, so I cannot see that as an outcome. There's just too much value here.
They are still recruiting, they have brought in GMining to get it done. The signals are there for longevity.
Anyone know when the details of LD's presentation will be released?
Was hoping for an RNS this morning.
The corporate investors are on the sidelines waiting for this to be de-risked. As soon as a funding package is announced this will be very attractive.
40 years of potential revenue which will capitalise on the projected exponential growth of the EV and eVTOL sectors is an extremely attractive prospect, along with the green credentials it brings for portfolio balancing.
It puzzles me that people seem to think banks and investors make decisions on a 2 or 3 year performance analysis/cycle. Most are looking at decades in their strategic planning and investment positioning.
A clichéd quote from the oracle of omaha but still with a kernal of truth:
Games are won by players who focus on the playing field –- not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard.
Thinking laterally, it could be argued that the RNS was crafted to:
A. Inform the market of the extension and need for further interim funding (core reason as deadlines were looming).
B. set expectations for a dilution for shareholders and note holders, which some will not be happy with.
C. Help focus the minds of the investors during the negotiation process to try to close the deal.
D. re-establish transparency in the company to regain market trust.
It may well be that they have a deal sketched out but an existing or new investor is not fully onboard yet. Doesn't hurt to remind them of a potential outcome if they don't get onboard.
I rewatched the YouTube video interview with Karim Nasir from Oct 2023 and he definitely knew it would be about a 500M shortfall, the signs are all there in what he says. However, what is worth reiterating is the value that LM places on the project and its potential 40 year life. He is genuinely excited at the prospect. Also, now we know they've brought in GMining we know how serious they are in getting this done. He talks about them in absolute glowing terms.
https://youtu.be/twt9TBsR9tM?si=OlKDS-nuXL2tI_LW
They clearly want this project done and he's very clear on what they want to do and how this fits into their portfolio, even before he stepped up as iCEO.
Worth another listen.