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BO: Come on dude - you have to be smarter than that. So what if a well is being drilled in Perth - that's in the state of Western Australia - Hello - we have been dealing with the NT government's fracking ban. The fracking ban was not a Federal ban.
Secondly so what if a 'rig' is in Perth. Would you kindly furnish documentation that your Perth rig is Ensign's rig #963 that Origin/Falcon have contracted for 2019 and 2020 drilling season. I somehow doubt if Ensign has #623 under contract they would have shipped it across the country - not unless an alternate rig is being made available.
Why would you assume any rig would have to be transported 2600 miles - that is asinine. There are lots of wells being drilled much closer to the Beetaloo (how about the recently drilled Beetaloo W-1?)
Origin is a major oil company in Australia - I'm betting they have the necessary logistics covered. Now if BO Oil & Gas was in charge of this project we would have some major concerns.
Your missing an important point in the UBS report - Origin is telling UBS they will be drilling around the last week in July (subject to the final permit). I have a lot more faith in what Origin is planning and staging than some wild idea you come up with.
At least you seem to think drilling might not happen until August - you've come a long way baby from your days of saying the Beetaloo would never be drilled :^) We are making progress!
No its miles, google it, by car about 85 hours !
Still a long way I agree
I think that's Kms not miles
Visited with a friend who says getting a rig that far, that fast and reassembling would be one giant undertaking, Not impossible but very unlikely to drill in July. Many loads, very heavy and on gravel and dirt roads . Any one want to bet no drilling in July ?
W T F rig in Perth ? Drilling date still not affected ? POQ said in January rig was ready to be
moved onsite by June ! Someone is lying ! I thought Perth was on the other side of the continent ? I said lawsuits would slow any drilling 2 years ago, what if courts accept any of these challenges. Oh just post positive comments and smile like a Cheshire cat like POQ did before ban when asked what could go wrong ! View proactive see POQ's comments, eig ready to role full steam ahead all BS.
'contingent resources - not RESERVES!!' Wish we could go back and edit these post - mine always seem to require it :^(
their - not there!
Yikes - Namu will be correcting my grammer/spelling again :^)
Eyedoc: The current valuation is based on 6.6 Tcf of contingent resources - not resources - there is a big difference. Once we either drill another offset with a 3000 meter lateral or Santos drills one this season that status change can likely be made. Santos and Origin are likely working together sharing data on this formation as it greatly benefits both parties and each has tons of acreage to develop. Falcon may not necessarily see it with there few remaining wells, but if they choose to drill an offset to the current Amungee well we could start experiencing multiples that 6.6 Tcf by each well. So not only can a reserves classification yield multiples of the current valuation, multiple wells could multiply that figure.
I say Falcon may not see offsets to the Aumgee if the Kyalla and the Velkerri wet gas look good. If so next years wells could be Kyalla wells, Velkerri wet gas or as a fallback Amungee offsets. Either way we will see multiples of the current valuation over the next couple of years. As others have said, now is the time to be patient and see what develops.
It's just very encouraging to finally get this project off high center. I along with others will breathe a huge sigh of relief when we get that PR that the rig is being mobilized.
Great to hear of the long awaited update, am I right in believing that the July start is dependant upon the NT Gov approving the final EMPs beforehand. If this is the case, has this update really been released to put pressure on the Government to get their arses in gear and get these approved PDQ?
NM - Exactly. If the first drill does the business you watch analysts rush out upgraded valuations though of course there's the possibility of the opposite occurring
Only that I agree with that valuation being very low given the so-called huge discovery that was talked about when Origin first drilled. I can only assume as drilling starts and moves forward we should see a multiple increase in valuation as the reserves move upward.
eyedoc - Let the drill bit do the talking. All else is speculation
It looks as if they’re saying the unrisked value of Beetaloo asset is roughly $2.8B (Aussie $). Is this based on their proving up the 6.6 tcf contingent resource of Verkerri B? If not, what “asset “ are they referring to? Certainly if reserves are anywhere near geologist’s possible estimates, $2.8B is orders of magnitude too low. Any comments?
Sorry -- the link I posted just brings up my gmail account -- so please ignore that link. I will try to find another link to the full UBS report.
RichGreenwood, you can try clicking on this link to see if the full UBS report will come up, but have found in the past that they won't upload for some reason. The parts that apply to Beetaloo -- I have copied and pasted already with the rest of the report dealing with Origin's other business interests.
can someone provide a copy of or link to the UBS report? thanks
I see that UBS risk Origin's Velkerri B interest at 50% and then Davy risk Falcon's Velkerri B interest at 90%. There must not be any set industry metrics for arriving at these risk levels. As said before it will all come down to what some super major or national oil company thinks the reserves in the ground are worth.
It was nice to see the July start date in writing. Looks like MOST of us on this board are on target :^) It also confirms my thinking that an August date would jeopardize the fracking of the second scheduled well. Split seasons for drilling and fracking would not be a total disaster but I'm sure Origin/Falcon need those flow test results to better determine the 2020 drilling program locations.
It also looks like Blundy's round 1 was a failure and I am betting he likely lost his Supreme Court bid also - As far as we know, pastoralist have never had any legal right to require access to NT government owned land. I think in time there will be some type of concessions made but I'm guessing based on current law, the Supreme Court has/will turns him down as there is no basis for his claim.
The last week of July is just around the corner. It's been a long time coming but I think it is going to happen - Congratulations to us all!
top note from UBS..thanks newtofo
Most notably Scotia Capital executing a 350K buy. I assume there is some discussion re expected start date making the rounds.
Thank you, all. Forgot about the AUS end. And, I like $$ appreciation!
ITguy, the $1.60 increase in Origin's share price for their portion of the Beetaloo is in Aussie dollars. Where Falcon will see a significant increase in our 30% of the Beetaloo when sold -- will be from a gas major looking at the massive increase in proven reserves that 30% of the Beetaloo will give them. If you look closely at analyst's ratings for oil and gas majors -- the higher the reserves they have in the ground the higher the valuation metrics -- and that is where Falcon's price will show the biggest appreciation.
While nothing says it’s USD, it is not likely CDN....Could be AUS. That said, back of the napkin puts the current value of our portion at about $0.60. You decide on the currency...still way better than where we’re trading today. Between a motivated seller and uncertainty on whether drilling resumes this year, the market has this trading at a significant discount and likely lower if permits aren’t issued imminently.
I'd suspect the $1.60 is AUDs, in the US $ it would be $1.12.
Nice! Is that share price estimate US$ or CND$?