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I’ll speculate that the delayed receipt of US$, due in February but not received until April, is related to the sharp depreciation of the naira at the end of January. It’s possible that to stabilise the currency, the government stopped businesses transferring US$ overseas. The naira has strengthened recently, maybe allowing dollar outflows to resume.
Nothing from the latest RNS or the delay in receiving the ‘monthly’ loan repayment instalment from Lekoil has altered my view. As of today, $29.9m of net receivable ($43.5m gross and $29.9m after taking into account the SAVI loan balance of $13.6m, payment of which is conditional on actually receiving money from Lekoil) and $3m of cash gives a nominal NAV of $32.9m. Take off that number the costs of running Fenikso (which ought to be small) for the period before either the remaining loan balance has been fully received or a corporate event of some kind, all means to me that there is value available in excess of the price which you can buy these shares in the market. However, things are not guaranteed so caveat emptor and we will find out in due course. The end of your accounts will be helpful when they come out in the next month or so and if/when the Board presents its revised strategy of how it intends getting value back to us shareholders.
New RNS today. Payment due in Feb was just late it seems, no explanation given. Another payment due this month, so back on track.
They didn't reply to several emails I sent. But you will see from url on their website: https://feniksoplc.com/investors/aqse-growth-market-rule-4-14/significant-shareholders-table/ that there are now only 4 significant shareholders and if Savanah Energy Investments Limited still had an outstanding loan they would have voiced their concerns by now I would have thought. In the Interim Report 26 Sep 2023 they say: As at the end of June 2023 LOGI had complied with all conditions of the Settlement Deed save for the cancellation of certain shares in the Company owned by Lekoil Nigeria, Lekan Akinyami and Samuel Olutu. The total shares that should have been cancelled are 107,658,847 ordinary shares. On 2 August 2023 the Company announced the surrender of 106,443,637 ordinary shares held by Lekoil Nigeria to the Company for nil consideration had been completed. The Company has agreed to extend the period during which the remaining 1,215,210 ordinary shares that are required to be surrendered by Lekoil Nigeria in accordance with the terms of the Settlement Deed until no later than 15 December 2023 so the fact that is not listed among significant holders is positive. Finally, if you click the HOME page on their website they make a statement: This website is currently under reconstruction and will be updated in due course. They would not be bothered to update their site if their were any serious problems I rightly or wrongly assumed . You could phone Brian Stockbridge +44 (0) 20 3855 5551 being the point of contact on the last RNS ie RNS Number : 8370A Fenikso Limited 25 January 2024 . If you get any info before the next RNS please e kind enough to post it on this Share Chat message board. Good Luck
Has anyone any thoughts on why the company has stopped all announcements? I’ve tried contacting them but got no reply. Silence must imply either good news or bad news (ie debt repayments have ceased). If the latter, surely the company should have announced that already? I’ve wondered whether our Directors would be open to a RTO of the borrower’s assets, whereby the borrower is able to strike out its debt, whilst getting a majority shareholding of the (UK listed) enlarged group. We shareholders exchange the loan for a minority holding of the entire oilfield (currently we get 8.65% of its revenues for a limited time). Some kind of transaction with the borrower would explain the silence; either of the kind I’ve described or simply a one-off payment to cancel the entire debt.
Looking very undervalued. Rising on little volume. 4/5p would look more like fair value atm. The next few months could get very interesting!
A 2p share price implies a mkt cap of £10mn, still a very substantial discount to the book value of the business. With the current oil price, the borrower will have no difficulty making the repayments.
Yes agreed, 2p on horizon.
Remember the old adage.. let profits run. 1.40 buy spotted today. think this is heading towards 2p. should get another payment from Lekoil before end of month.
Hope so. up 6% today. 1.30 paid
oil price got a bonce today. seems to have regained the uptrend.
Should be some more to come!!
Still ticking up. 1.25 paid today. good to see the recent gains have held.
I'm in profit. its rising. no reason to sell at all whilst in profit and its on an uptrend. I see today a buy at 1.25
The price at which individuals are prepared to acquire this share continues to go up. However, in order to manage people’s expectations, the Nigerian economy and currency are really struggling and dollar generating businesses operating within Nigeria are probably economic targets for a government seeking dollars to help mitigate the ongoing Naira depreciation. The risk of seeing a multiple of your money from this point forward is centred around Lekoil’s ability and willingness to lift oil, get it to the refinery, get paid for it and for a percentage of those proceeds to get into Fenikso’s bank account. Whilst I remain bullish that this will end up at a 3.5 - 4.5p moneitisation event at some stage in the next year or two, there remains real risk for Fenikso that can’t be easily mitigated and where Fenikso is completely dependant on others. This is not a one-way bet and certainly not for widows and orphans!.
Still going up. there was a trade today at 1.15
4.4m shares traded at the sell price on 29/1/24. Also the following resolution was passed at the June AGM
Purchase of ordinary shares (Resolution 10)
The Company is also seeking authority to make market purchases of its own shares up to an aggregate of 59,939,642 shares (being approximately 10 per cent of the Company’s issued share capital on 5 June 2023 being the latest practicable date prior to the publication of this document)
I can see this going alot higher in the future! gla
Sp going nuts today. oil price red hot right now.
Have he Board paid out dividends yet?
Up 5% now
A rerate looking likely. Once it breaks 1p it could quickly go to 2 or 3p. There can't be much stock in free float so it won't take much buying pressure to lift it. 😉IMHO
GLAH
Up nicely today. and for last few days seems to be moving up!
Agreed.
I’ve been buying again today. The company now has an EV of less than £3mn but a monthly income stream of ca £400k with a total value of about £25mn, so about 5 years’ duration. The current mkt cap implies a discount rate of over 60% pa, which is nonsensical.
I don’t read too much into the irregular trades; just people who got bored or institutions cleaning house. I can’t believe there is much free float left for the market-maker / broker to buy up. I’m personally just looking forward to see what the Board has to say (maybe Q2 2024?) about how the monetisation of the receivable will be achieved and the plan to get the value (my view >GBP25m, note will need to be discounted back for time value of money and risk of non-receipt) back to long suffering shareholders of this stock. I still think it is 3.5-4.5x from here so will continue to hold my 2.5m shares to see but it is risky so not going to accumulate more. But DYOR and formulate your own view.