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Hi!
Thanks for respond.
The problem is that the high number of gas is became E still buying gas on long range contract and I dont know the price.
In -19 (follow the money) did they stop gaslifting at magnus but the contract dont end until -23.
I dont want to count to high.
I think our producton of gas is less than 4% but i`m hope they opening Seligis chamber.
It`s time for that!
Regards/Kamrat
Hi Therapist,
I believe you may be correct. Looking at last year's AR and the H1 21 report, the average gas revenues were between 7 and 8% of overall revenues. Taking current gas prices into account and an expected uplift to Magnus/Seligi production in H2 - I can speculate we may get up to between 12 to 18% of revenues for H2 from gas - tidy, but by no means earth shattering.
GL
Hi,
I think the "gas production %" will be lessened this year due to the two major sources Magnus and Malaysia underperforing comparatively. However they are reportedly/hopefully coming back to peak at the time when prices are highest. I have average historical gas figures for Q2 this year at $50.48 and then July jumping to $71.69 at circa 99p/Therm and as E121 states it is now going through the roof.
I think we still have import gas unused at Magnus till next year so depending on deal or timing that may have benefits as it has previously.
I have Malaysia estimated at 5% gas. If anyone has an opinion otherwise I'd be interested.
GLAXXX
Great posts E121 and Tarmak. I never realised our gas production was so high. I thought it was negligible and the scale made it only borderline economic. Pleased to be wrong.
Regarding the options. They can have a major impact when your timing is wrong or you haven't protected your downside if a producer but they are based on speculation and our business is the physical production of oil although I am aware we have to utilise swaps and options. They are a combination of insurance, creditor demands and plain simple sensible housekeeping for us. I wish I'd hedged my own Bulb gas & electricity into a fixed deal but the energy "crisis" is doing wonders for my domestic bill hedge which is an investment in an oil company called EnQuest. I don't usually disagree with L7 but in his post of Sun 19:52 he wrote "the new RBL requirement forced on Enquest" with regards to hedging. It is basically benign imo but obviously a negative drag on a rising oil price but the point is than lenders force criteria on you and it happens to all of us whether borrowing for a car or a mortgage. Just saying that "forced" is a little strong. We'd have been pretty p*ssed if AB hadn't hedged whilst a part of us wishes we had the freedom to sell spot with the advantage of hindsight. I liken oil hedging in a sense to retail companies choosing the right stock/fashion and getting the weather right. Impossible to get right everytime but you need a basically strong business and leadership to nail down the moving parts that you can. I think hedging is necessary whether an oil producer or an airline /shipping company. Hedges in size really only go out for a year anyway whilst getting a company to operate within the traditional oil cycle of (say) 4-7 years means they [hedges] cannot offer guaranteed returns. I will concede that shale and hedging is a different game due to shorter horizons but we're not in that one and even that isn't riskproof/foolproof.
I think people get carried away with the vast profits that oil trading companies can make and the famous day in April 2020 when a group of Essex boys had it off at the WTI fixing. What happened that day will be unlikely to ever happen again for a variety of reasons.
*I started talking to a neighbours son and he asked what I'd done before retirement. I said FX trading and he said his best friend Connor had made a fortune in trading oil. Connor lives in Thornwood and the neighbour's boy went to school in Epping, both areas I know well. He added "yeah, he's round here a lot. Connor's the one with the Ferrari". They're both in their early 20's.
Glad we are no longer importing to Magnus for gas lift
And for Enquest all of Gas sales is unhedged - OK, it's not a huge number (15% as Tarmak identified) and it's primarily from Magnus and Seligi, but let's not forget that there could be a nice revenue upside there. I do hope we get some commentary on this when we get our next update. Even Asian gas prices are very high - not as much as NBP/TTF, but still high.
Hello Kamrat - "The price of gas sales was 41,91% of the oil price in -20.
In H1 -21 was it 65,41%. Therefore I make a new count there I use booth of these and my conclusion is that 51,95% of the oil price is useful."
No, if anything your H2 % should be a lot higher than H1. I wouldn't be surprised if H2 gas sale price on a BOE basis is higher than oil. If we conservatively estimate that NBP nat gas price has averaged £1.10/therm in Q3 - that's a BOE equivalent of circa $87. For clarity, today's NBP price is £1.93/therm, an all-time high - that $152 per BOE.
My suggestion is to model 100% of oil price as the gas price equivalent for H2 2021 and I still think that there could be more upside.
GL..
Hi!
At the beginning I must say that I´m happy to se L7 writing again ...welcome back!
-----------------------------
Sales of oil and gas was 85% / 15% in -20.
In H1 -21 is it the same but with GE will it be a bit less in H2.
The price of gas sales was 41,91% of the oil price in -20.
In H1 -21 was it 65,41%.
Therefore I make a new count there I use booth of these and my conclusion is that 51,95% of the oil price is useful.
The count is in my files at Comp.gas&oilprices.
Regards/Kamrat