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Hi all -
Would be interested in what people see as FY22 revenue estimate. I think TL mentioned 25m, sergi I thought I remember somewhere 8-12m? Others?
I am still somewhat conservative thinking that they might reach 4m this year and 10-12m next year. Even that should move the SP north, if they become CF neutral or positive at the same time.
25m is definitely not seen by the market as realistic, otherwise the SP would be in totally different regions (even with dilution)
I agree on around $10-12m, I do not think $25m is achievable .. maybe in 2023...
The VSA broker note, admittedly well out of date now, gave $9m. One would like to think with developments since then that this figure could be soundly beaten.
From what the company are saying further large contracts won’t kick in before end 2022 ( in the broker option RNS).
Therefore I tend to err on the side of caution. As can be seen, most contracts start off in a modest way and then there are the inevitable delays, so I’d go for something like $12m , give or take. Be good to upgrade as things progress.
And a new broker note in the new year would be helpful, I think dallo has said he has suggested this to the bod.
And there’s Ds 100. Atb
Yes, $9-14M would be my range but the probability is skewed towards $9-11
2023 $20M+ but that coukd change significantly
That’s not the right price showing at the minute is it ?
Where you looking? Mid is 35p no volume no change
Was 5 up but just lse
We can dream..!
Further large contracts but contracts are already secured and selling for new IDU with sales last year 10000 units on a inferior product. India expected sales 10000 units at $1000+ each.
$20-25m is very modest. Forget taking this year and adding a bit it's stupid. Completely new markets are open now. Ethernity are very careful with estimates so speak to others and you'll see that now the sales come in.
I would be surprised if the run-rate deliveries in the DWs go from 0 to 60-100% in the first year of the deployment (India, UEP, Tarana...).
Usually it takes time, 3 to 4 years to reach full run-rate and I expect something like 25-33% in the first year, 50-65% in the second, and the rest in the third/fourth. Plus new contracts and expansions into current projects
I expect 2023 to be the strongest year if everything is on track
I don't think so the race is on to deploy in the first locations and these are rapid deployments. The IDU is based on previous sales no future guessing. The market will only get bigger now
Revenue will grow year on year for many years as sales spread globally
Can buy and sell at 34 currently..!
With the very wide differences in revenues expectations it really does show the need for a investor meet type call for PIs on release of the 2021 trading update early 22, similar to the one they probably gave to Miton.
I really couldn't give a toss if David is not a great communicator as we can all see through a flash harry AIM CEO types.
Skid
If you are a HF you have a call with the company only sending an email. I know david met other PMs (at least 1) as I referred to them
The level of data you have access to working at a fund is incredible. Very difficult or impossible to get there as a PI (at least much more costly). Still, many private investors overperform HFs
Skid I don't think that Ethernity management guesses will be in anyway accurate by the time they add a huge measure of caution. These sales are totally out of Ethernity hands which makes me feel better.
Embedded global vendors with clients or a tiny company from Israel.
You need to know that as far a Tarana goes Ethernity management are completing out of touch with their prospects and just respond to orders. So far $2m but talking to Tarana they estimate 15000 base nodes in 22 many in H1
You'd think if Ethernity make such a key component they might want to give them a heads up..?
I don't see why, they will have a supply agreement and will trigger at the prescribed time. Currently there are 4 deployments I am aware of and now RTA in 21 states. Large deployments are looming now in the US from federal funding. Globally Australia and Europe are huge markets which will go to deployment before the end of this year.
Interesting that Tarana expect to supply 1 base for every 100 home units for the next few years. So far 500k against 1400 but we can assume that will change with density.
Tracy, totally agree, a lot of variation from both binary deals and then how they ramp - and as you say much outside their direct control.
Happy with a conservative view and upgrades through the year as deals develop - a bit like the way Sergi does it !
Talking more about a more holistic view - how David sees the market developing and ENETs strategy to optimise the opportunity across the product / service range, and then Mark on the financial / commercial impact of this.
40+ views (by PMs) to my enet thesis & updates at SZ this week...
Maybe you should be more rampy with your forecasts Sergi because I don't think any of them have bought..!
If our products are as successful as we all hope, how long do you think we will last before a bigger tech fish buys us out? It's a scenario that no one seems to have considered on here yet I consider it a real possibility at some point.
Owl it's been discussed here many times. I think that the chances are very slim
TL re ‘15,000 base nodes in 2022’
Does that equate to 15,000 units for ENET at an estimated $500 a go, plus possible extras/recurring fees/upgrades etc?
Thanks