Skid 30 years against a 5 minute phone call. Ethernity has a pipeline of orders that were valued at $2m. When Tarana get commitment to a new deployment or base station the chipsets are added.
It's a very common system used in the automotive industry where rolling orders are added almost daily for future dates. Those component suppliers don't know anything about how many cars the manufacturer may sell and when. They just respond to orders.
Rather than muck about taking your word for it with 30 years yawn experience I just phone a friend at Tarana and they tell me how it is with the hundreds of components they order for assembly.
It may sound rude, take it or leave it I simply don't care.
Skid I don't understand what your problem is. Tarana order Ethernity supply. It's extremely simple. Ethernity don't get involved in the deployments in any way so have no knowledge of what's coming. I know this for a fact, it's a straight supply contract.
The chipsets are all the same. Ethernity probably don't even touch them and won't know which deployment they are for. Tarana will be adding to it all the time as the lead time extends into fresh deployments.
I think that what you are failing to understand is that the orders are not for immediate delivery they are over 6-9 months. Ethernity will be informed of the orders as they happen and no nothing of the engagements. This is a very small part of the Ethernity business and is hands off for them. The design and testing is complete now it's just an accounting matter.
Skid I don't think that Ethernity are aware of their pipeline. Tarana are not listed yet and can project what they like Ethernity are and won't project anything. Ethernity just respond to orders not speculation and hopes.
The $2m is the current total for orders. That will be the total commitment to date probably plus a bit extra. However as we know there are many deployments in the pipeline. Deployments are always phased but the base nodes are the first part so orders will be early in the cycle. We'll see an explosion of orders into Tarana as multiple projects reach deployment.
I don't think that Ethernity has any grip on what's happening with G1 and they just respond to orders.
It's very easy to speak to Tarana people, there are many listed and they are easy to find. The story at Tarana is that they are in a huge growth phase. Orders will come and Ethernity will have to respond to them.
Tarana is small business compared to what else is happening.
We have multiple products in production with OEMs.
An Indoor Unit for microwave 5g with a global antenna vendor. The recent OLT product. UEP-60 in India where the government and Indian consumers are expected to order 10000 units a year. The product is now ready for market.
A DU product with 3 server vendors with ISP engaged. This is now in the final stages with field testing before deployment. These will be substantial single orders with a design payment and 3-5000 units on the initial build. These will be multiple sales.
These events will all coincide starting in the short term.
We can expect a lot of revenue but Ethernity won't talk about it until it happens.
The risks here are growing too slowly or to fast. Growth is a given now.
The world is littered with people who didn't take an opportunity because it looked too good to be true.
Do your research, dig deep, speak to people in the business.
Many missed out on the 12p shares when I was here telling everyone how good this opportunity is. Now at 60p some still don't see it. Yes there will be winners and losers
The 512 was a figure given by Ethernity. This assumes a Mixed use of capacity. It's likely that we'll see multiple BNs that will cover the different requirements . I certainly never expect to see anything like 512. In fact installations so far are often below 100 per BN.
I believe that H1 will produce$6m and H2 9m.
Ethernity management won't agree but I think that they have massively underestimated the immediate demand.
However Tarana is purely old business. They are supplying just a component without responsibility for the product at the point of sale.
I believe that we'll see a substantial recurring revenue establish over the next few years. This revenue will more than cover costs for the year.
I see huge growth in this deal. I believe in H1 22 we'll see $6m in sales to Tarana.
The maths is quite easy. 56500 households, they should secure as the only viable provider a good chunk of those. In the perfect situation that would be 110 base nodes. Assuming that the quadrant never fills completely and they don't sign all of the households we are looking at around 100 Ethernity units. The value I was originally told was $1000 a unit however I am now told $500 of that is recurring royalty..
This is a very small rollout.
Supersonic are nearing 300 towers but we don't know how many nodes per tower
https://youtu.be/-CRdEgtERD4
Ethernity provide the chipset for the base node. This is huge business from a sideline product with massive upside. This is not an Ethernity solution in a Tarana box like the IDU or DU but it's a major contribution that made this breakthrough possible.
Ethernity are working with Tarana on G2 now which will hit a similar audience with massive capacity.
Yes costs down by 80%+ with G1. It's a huge saving in infrastructure costs at a time when fiber contractors are suffering. Tarana will grab a huge share of the market with G1. Ethernity provide the chipset for the base node and will do very well out of huge G1 sales. I stick at $6m H1 22 from Tarana.
I suspect that we are all 3-5 year holders. I don't think that you are understanding what is happening. When Ethernity makes a profit speculative punters will be out numbered by those who have investing rules and hunt dividend yield. This will be a huge dividend yield very soon. These more strategic investors normally invest for a minimum of 3 years.
It's how it is whether you mock me or not I don't care.
You are not accounting for the average 700 trades a week currently against the previous 100. Also the fact that despite the high value the average transaction size is massively increased.
You also need to consider that we are moving into the profit window which attracts different investors, these are very likely to be 3-5 year holders.
So we have more shares but many more holders that are unlikely to be swung on daily movement. Once 5g stop fuelling the supply will tighten and the chart will take on spikes again.
It doesn't really matter how many shares are in issue. It's what the holders do with them that counts. Clearly since 5g have been selling they have fuelled to this point. Without 5g the share price would be much higher but the chart would look very different with swings up and down instead of the steady progression.
Once 5g stop fuelling people won't sell they will hold and add.
Yes there are many more shares but much more interest so the problems will be the same.