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Mr Cautious:
Sonora has USD800m post tax Npv at 8% at $11k lithium p.
Assume at 15k lithium this rise to around USD1.16bn
I disagree one should value a Mexican asset at the same cost of capital as a North American/European asset.
So I adjust cost of capital up to 10%.
That takes you probably to around USD800m.
Bacanora has 50% of Sonora.
So effective share npv USD400m
Market cap of Bacanora at takeout price: £258m
Enterprise value at takeout price: USD280m
O/W value of stake in Zinnwald (at time I wrote the comment) =c£15m (usd20m)
Ev ex znwd/npv10= 65%, actually
Green - I am LTH this and BCN, and its seems this is the place to be now, especially as the BCN board are trying to screw us !
Malik - where does your maths come from here !!!!! How on gods earth can you say that Ganfengs offer of 67.5p ACTUALLY (not 65P) is 61% NPV of Sonora !!!!! If you doubled this offer figure you still wouldnt be at 61% NPV and dont forget the major stake in ZNWD that is also part of the deal --- go back and look at your numbers pleeeese !
So Malik, if as you say, emh/cez are interested in purchasing znwd then what price would be put on it and where are we going to get the money from?
So the implied price paid for Bacanora’s Mexican flagship asset Sonora, baked in the 65p Offer for Bacanora is around 61% of NPV of Sonora.
We at EMH are currently trading at 25% NPV - I expect a doubling of that ratio and so share p when EMH offtake is announced.
Zinnwald trades at c10%.
Maths salivating actually.
(I am basing those numbers on $15k hydroxide)
I'm sorry Malik, you've harped on about this for a long time. Tell me how much of a premium ganfeng supposedly are offering bcn holders?
Sorry I'll take my chances with emh/cez thank you very much....
It’d be a very happy buyer of your shares in EMH, if EMH gets involved ;)
I wouldn’t want to miss a 70% run in the shares from any asset consolidation.
Interesting RNS from znwd but I'd fear the Trojan horse that is ganfeng lurking in the background. Ok, their offer for bcn is not official yet but it looks likely they will make an offer. Once complete they will have a toehold in Europe with the possibility of a takeover of znwd, although politically this may prove difficult. Sorry, I don't want emh to get involved here.....
Zinnwald getting momentum it looks like.
https://www.boersennews.de/markt/aktien/detail/gb00bfn4gy99/
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/zinnwald_lithium/news/rns_widget/story/w04qgnx
Capex of Vulcan USD2bn…
EMH has to be one of the best opportunities on AIM to see fast "multi-bag" growth based on company fundamentals and market demand...Just saying! ATB
Dumbpunter you're wrong again. There is constant progress towards production and the economics are great. I've never known anyone who loves being so wrong all the time. Keep posting though, I love laughing at idiots.
Answering your own questions to get a convo started DP.....lol. Time you're filtered. Another one of the many trolls on these boards who aren't invested but keep coming back to stir the pot. Cheerio.
I owned Vulcan. Fantastic team.
I sold out. My concern there was twofold:
1) a simply enormous capex requirement. And sting need of know how. You rely on a utility to get involved. Possible - but makes EMH way more likely to come first (and we’ll before).
2) You rely on on German govt not cutting subsidies for geothermal - we’re this to change it would kill the proposal
3) France which borders Vulcan resource has turned cautious on geothermal as it causes earthquakes.
Ha, no wonder this sad sod is ramping vul... have you seen the number of shares traded over the last two months?
Buy Vulcan , it will be up and running in Berlin before emh even get a blooming spade in the dirt. Dire political situation and such a shame that back in 2018 , 2022 was production date. Such a massive missed oportunity.
Vulcan will be a T target mark my words. Plus its racing forward way faster than emh which is glacial and embarrassingly slow. Czech elections in Sept Oct and 8 weeks holiday for summer.
See you in November for a Rusdian buyout or takeover.
Maybe, but CEZ already controls Geomet. CEZ could simply take out ZNWD (without having to worry about any complications re EMH’s 49% and just do a JV deal between CEZ/Geomet for the combined asset. Would be a major coup for the CR, effectively killing competition from across the border and giving them the whip hand for the bulk of Europe’s supply.
Surely to truly unify the two projects, Geomet would buy Zinwald, not CEZ or EMH.
(Nd lastly - it makes even more sense when you think that VW - a German national champion - is the very likely candidate of Cinovec offtake)
Cez director won’t say to press we are eyeing buying Zinnwald… what matters at first instance is they have plans in relation to Zinnwald asset - that’s what’s key. And that’s not EMH, it’s Cez talking - which is 70% owned by Czech govt.
This is a political story; and there is plenty of reason why consolidating the asset makes sense to EU 80% lithium self sufficiency agenda. Why? Because 1) Infinity Lithium resource in Spain is close to being binned as a project 2) Savannah resources in Portugal has question marks after Galp, which is 10% owned by Portuguese govt decided to let lapse their exclusive agreement.
What’s left in EU? Vulcan? Yes - but geothermal, and enormous capex requirements.
So parting from this: what would Cez gain from agreeing to build on Czech soil a processing facility for Zinnwald? They will get something in return - the volumes.
In other words, whether you call this takeover of deep integration the story is the same - it’s hugely project accretive.
exactly, we will process your (ZNWD) material for a fee
I'm afraid sharing processing facilities is not the same as buying the German side.
Exactly Cez director himself mentioned a few days ago the idea of sharing one processing plant.
We have seen comment from representatives of CEZ about one mine for both deposits. They are onboard already I suspect.
I suspect any move from EMH for ZNWD would need to involve CEZ otherwise I could see conflict brewing between EMH & CEZ as the focus is supposed to be Cinovec