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No worries mate, I’ve done a couple of posts on there similar to the ecr board - a summary to the best of my knowledge and research.
Gold continuing to rise. $1869. Long May it continue. :)
Cheers TS. I believe there still remains great potential at ECR, especially with the Creswick drilling recommencing. In SP, it's had a similar pullback to a lot of companies in the sector and from these levels it's a wonderful opportunity to average down. Like i said, I've put the mine and JV to back the back of my mind, focusing on the here and now and the near term to mid term opportunities
AG & JTB, Just read through the chat from last night..... Some good balanced points and an excellent discussion.
I won’t go into it on here JTB but if you scroll through the OMi board, just look for my posts.
I like to take several factors into consideration. But the big one for me, it comes down to what’s actually in the ground. There are several other important factors associated, but in my short experience, you can flog a company only so far on good fundamentals: funding, having a good BoD, jurisdiction, communication. You can still generate some pretty good returns for shareholders but it all comes down to what’s actually in the ground
If you want those gains to continue. And here we have that chance. The historic grades were pretty good here to be fair, but looking back the level of drilling just isn’t there for me. 2021 I expected a couple of campaigns and that’s what’s being delivered.
OMI at its first target in Anza, returned 100g/t+, 200g/t+, 948g/t. Really small float, when volume increases it really takes off. 2 majors on board. I’m hoping ecr get something similar at Creswick. But then they’re based in Columbia. Jurisdiction can takes it toll. They’ve been waiting 2-3 months for assays to return from the labs. Huge Covid outbreaks. ECR are sat in one of the best mining post codes in the world. That can go a long way
Jtb - what is your own view of the whole 'advanced discussions' issue? Do you think the whole thing was made up and there were no advanced discussions, if not, what do you make of it all?
I agree that most people would interpret 'advanced discussions' as meaning nearing completion. However, the reason I have not taken it to mean that is quite simple. In the recent interview to explain the placing, when asked about the JV, CB explained that the two outstanding CresWick licence applications needed to be sorted out first. The fact that these applications are outstanding was a KNOWN fact going into the JV discussions. The potential JV partner had done its due diligence. Therefore, I really can't see how the talks could get anywhere towards nearing completion, if the potential JV partner wanted the licence applications to be resolved first? That was never going to happen during the discussions, because of the known delay with processing of applications. We are still waiting for them. We might be waiting a fair while yet?
Because I’m new to investing, I just want to prove a point to myself. I spend all this time researching ECR, scrolling through the boards, and Twitter to try and fully understand the company inside out. I believe this has the capability of generating 5-10X my investment within 18-24 months, I really do and that’s what il persist with.
That being said, i joined the markets last March at a time where prices were rock bottom, and I mean rock bottom. Within the space of 2-3 months I was 100%+ on 6 different companies. But then the decline in POG hit, sentiment hit rock bottom and I lost quite a bit.
Ever since I’ve been far more appreciative of any kind of Green day in the market. I won’t trade ECR because I’m looking forward to the growth of the company, but instead of juggling 6-7-8 long term holds, I’m going to focus on just 3. Do my research, and find companies I believe can swing 30-40% for me. I need to stop thinking with my heart, and more with my head. It’s all well and good me saying “I’m invested in such and such a company for 4 years from now, so il just sit back and enjoy the ride and sit on my hands”
But in order to be rewarded 4 years down the line, you need the company to start to perform in the near term so the growth all builds up. The less confident you feel short term about a company, that will have a knock on affect in the long term.
JTB - The whole “advanced talks” really got me thinking. Up until a couple of weeks back, I had it in my head it was just terminology CB used to draw up interest in the company. He “couldn’t say too much” because maybe there wasn’t really anything to say.
There were times he hinted at maybe coming back and drilling Creswick ourselves in some form.
But I then remembered 2 interviews from the start of this year, possibly a third. When Craig finally opens up about the JV, in one interview he mentions he really likes the company in question and their experience and expertise in the business. There were just a couple of department issues to sort out.
And in another, he goes on to state we can definitely get a deal away, there are just a few “licensing” issues to sort out. Absolutely nothing about the strength or level of previous drilling which was carried out and we’d have to return there ourselves first.
To me, nothing was officially signed and Craig decided the offers maybe were not up to scratch and didn’t want to hold out whilst the licensing issues where sorted. Talks were put on HOLD and he decided to go with a fresh campaign to strengthen any future negotiations.
I’m just glad drilling has commenced again, but agreed, to the detail of understanding how “advanced” these discussions were, I wouldn’t know where to begin.
I do understand where JTB is coming from, but I remain confident in there being some very rewarding gains at the end of all of this
It’s always important to re evaluate your investments and positions, as and when news changes and progresses. It’s just a sensible thing to do and hope everybody does the same.
And to that, if PI’s bought in 12 months ago, saw we still don’t have a JV, HR3 first four holes delivered very little (This has been interpreted different by numerous investors which I understand), then I don’t blame them if they don’t have tone confidence to invest here.
I’ve been waiting all of this time for Creswick to resume so I’m feeling far more confident, than I was 4-5 weeks ago. They found gold in 9/17 holes in 2019 (80g/t,11g/t,1g/t,1g/t) etc etc. Still not enough to get a solid JV away for me, but with these next 10 holes, if you can deliver favourable assays 2.5km south of this, your beginning to get somewhere.
They really need to start building a picture at ECR. A kind of statement to say, each drilling campaign we’re having, we are striking Gold. We are delivering in what we said we would.
There are resources, how big? I really don’t know yet, nobody does. Will we ever see a Mine? Il sure know a little more within the next 18 months.
But with it being a low cap, risk/reward play, the eventual “mine” doesn’t feature high on the factors why I’m here. It’s clearly an end goal for the company and many of you, but the gains are made much much earlier on. That’s what I’m targeting initially and il access as we go on.
The potential here is huge to build that MCAP. Our own drill, £5.8m, good geologists, projects in the right post codes. We’re an exploration company, at present. When we start to see
Successful campaign
Successful campaign
Successful campaign
One after another, you can build a picture in your head of the projects and scope we’re dealing with. The resources will begin to accumulate, but not all deposits and resources in the ground will find their way to production.
But those days are a long way from now. I like to focus on the here and now and the activities and actions the company are taking in the present to further my interests. At 1.9p I believe this to be a fantastic opportunity. It’s in my sipp so I have plans to keep my holding for the foreseeable (2/3/4) years, maybe longer and just enjoy the ride. But if investors want to trade this and flip a quick 50% in a month or two, that’s their prerogative. Not up to me or anybody on here to dictate how other investors hit their targets and profit margins.
Jtb - I think the decision on trading vs holding is not clear cut right now because of the drilling. I guess it also depends on the level of your holding and so is a personal decision, where two people can make different decisions but they are both the right decisions for each of them. I am leaning towards waiting for results simply because I have managed to average down to these levels, but I will ultimately still decide what seems right for my holding based on the price action/nearer the time. The calculation for me is that if the results are not great at CresWick, the price might fall back to these levels, but then there is still drilling news to come from Baileston (or vice versa if the HR3 results come out first), and probably more drilling will take place at CresWick if the first 1700m is not good. At Baileston, there definitely will be more to come as we have all the other prospects.
But if they do hit decent gold at either CresWick or HR3, I really don't see ECR being traded back down/or sold off down to 2p, ever. Finding mineralisation would represent a change in the fundamentals of the company, as the prospects would start to match the hype about them. And all this with a bullish POG as a key background factor. If you trade out, the risk is that by the end of 2021, this becomes the company that we thought it was at the start of 2021, but we've missed out on the real gains because we traded out in the middle of the year and at the key inflection point.
JTB, It was just a general comment ... you didn't even come in to my thinking
Jtb - re your post at 17:41 and the JV, I will try to explain my thoughts. The first thing I have to say is that there are too many unknowns to be confident about anything. The first unknown is whether CB was spinning, or talking factually, when he used the phrase in the first place. Assuming he was speaking factually, the next unknown is what "advanced discussions" actually means. It is open to interpretation and (deliberately?) vague. You then have the unknown of how many parties ECR have spoken to about a JV, recently and since 2019. Some might been prepared to meet the asking price, BUT not until licences have been resolved. Others might have wanted to see more drilling evidence as 'proof of concept'. Others might have been prepared to proceed, but not at the asking price because of these very same issues. Or the whole thing might be one long and elaborate carrot dangling/spinning exercise.
For my part, I am prepared to accept that since 2019, CB has had talks with multiple parties over CresWick. He is likely to have emerged from these talks having a pretty good idea of what needs to happen to get a JV over the line. It's a bit like selling the house, where over a period of time, you know what needs to happen because the same issues keep coming up from potential buyers. You either drop the asking price if that is the sticky point, or you resolve whatever else the issues might be. I think somewhere along the line across talks with various parties, CB will now realise that further drilling is needed in order to secure the deal he wants. CB first mentioned drilling in January, so it was very much in his mind back then, when he was in the thick of JV discussions. I don't think he is clever enough to have staged it all back then. I think he was responding to the JV talks when he made the comment. I have observed that we are only drilling 1700metres. I see this as exactly the kind of drilling that CB referred to back in January (when he said we might need to put a few more holes into CresWick). It looks like a limited 'proof of concept' drilling exercise to me, aimed at supporting our position that the DMS is prospective. At the back of mind, I also have the fact that the licence expires in December, and this might be another reason why the drilling is needed. Overall, this limited 'proof of concept' drilling strikes me as an exercise that is in response to the outcome of JV discussions (recently or since 2019).
Therefore, for reasons given above, I think you can reconcile the current drilling with the talks that have taken place regarding a JV. Not necessarily to revive existing JV talks, but possibly also to generate fresh/new JV interest. But like I said, too many unknowns to be confident about anything.
Jtb is definitely not a ramper or de-ramper. Just someone who had high hopes for ECR at the start of the year, on the basis of a particular investment scenario spun by the CEO (i.e. the imminence of JV), which hopes were then spectacularly not realised and we ended up with an unexpected placing instead. This has resulted in all of us having to re-appraise our investment case for ECR, and no doubt views have changed since the start of the year. I've certainly had to rethink as well.
Look at the gold price - that sure looks like a march towards $1900.
Jtb/AG1989 - I find myself agreeing with both of your posts, even though you have different perspectives in terms of trading this (Jtb) and investing (AG1989). I can see the arguments in favour of both points of view, and they could both make you money (and hopefully will). In terms of everything else, I think we are in a 'all roads lead to Rome situation' here, where the "roads" are the different things we are debating and "Rome" is drilling results. For the first time, our own views and opinions on here (and those of AG, CB, etc) matter much less or carry less influence, because much will be answered (definitively) by drilling results. If we hit gold at CresWick again, then we have further 'proof of concept', namely, that the DMS IS indeed prospective for gold. So not a discovery as such (which will take tens of 1000s of metres of drilling and is longer term), but a potentially defining moment for CresWick and the start of something much bigger. If we don't get decent results, then that will have its own consequences...
Some Boot Filling The Last Hour !
Ivybush - wow, that would probably make you the ultimate expert :-) Welcome aboard, and good luck with your investment here and elsewhere. Will look forward to your postings.
@AG1989 & Legalwolf I have been investing in stock market for over 60 yrs!
Invested here after my research, such as I can do. Discount to recent placing,
positive chart outlook, substantial cash reserves, good licences with great prospects.
Not for widows and orphans, but a good speculative investment.
To be fair it wasn’t TS but doesn’t matter anyway. My point remains, the gains can be made, but you need the grades to achieve it. CRESWICK to me is the best shot. On the right terms, even if that means relinquishing 50/60% of the project. (IMO)
Still a lot of value to be pulled from bailleston, but it will take time.
JTB - Sorry, I knew you wasn’t having a go at LW. I was just replying to his post :)
Jtb - I didn't take it as personal criticism. I understood the point you were making. I'm going to give myself a badge though when I do get to one year :-)
All here to make the money. That’s what it’s all about. My opinions have changed slightly in a couple of months. But not to deter me or my investment here
I’ve realised these things take time. Investments take time. On paper, there’s every chance you can lose a lot of money, but I’ve been fortunate enough to average down in my sip, a lot.
I apologise for talking GGP the other week. And I can understand how these cross ramps are interpreted. The whole basis of my post was to show that these parabolic gains, are in fact achievable. They can be done, ECR can go out and get theirs. But they’re not just given to you on a plate, they need earning. You need something out of the ordinary that shakes the market and gets investors watching closely.
And for ECR, that’s what 2021 is alll about. A big risk/reward play with many factors going in the companies favour. The JV was at the top of my list. It shares the risk with another company, freeing up ECR, but most importantly for me, we get to stick the drill bit back into the DMS and go hunting for the 2019 high grade assays we know are there.
Although no JV has been signed, the second best option has materialised. Which is ECR returning there themselves, and maintaining 100% of the project.
I don’t see many junior exploration companies with a similar cap with £6m in the bank. I don’t see many with their own drill. I don’t see many who currently have ongoing drilling campaigns on 2 different projects.
At these levels, there is plenty of news flow to look forward to which could generate 2/3/4/5 X the current price. Just be willing to factor in the risk when making your decision.
lets get the positivity back , the bottoms in and we have turned a corner.
we are all well aware of the woes of the last month or two.
AG dig up one of your summarising posts and get it posted, think we are forgetting why we are all long here.
LW - no need to explain yourself. Your posts are brilliant.
I’ve only been investing for 14 months myself. I love the research, the interviews, the message boards. And like you, appreciate all input.
Didn’t make much of that interview if I’m honest.
Just basically what we already knew. Kirkland lake Gold just spent £1.6m acquiring land. I’d be very surprised, at this stage of Bailleston even entered their radars. In terms of assays, a resource, or a strong continuation of mineralisation at depth, we are very far off.
I’m hoping these next 4 holes deliver some good values and add HR3 as a real prospect along with blue moon and black cat. But as it stands, don’t read too much into the fosterville rumour
Even putting Tambo out of my head. We have drilling campaigns ongoing at 2 of our 100% owned projects. It is exciting, it’s a giant step in the right direction but the grades need to do the talking. Hoping for a couple of small width high grade intersections at Creswick, followed up immediately by another campaign.
The HQ in Bendigo sounds like it’s beginning to take shape which is good news.
I can happily confirm that I am definitely no expert. In terms of investing, I am barely out of my nappies (not even been doing this for 1 year yet) and still in need of some potty training. I can also confirm that I have had more than my fair share of stinkers along the way. Apologies for anyone reading this whilst having a late lunch....