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Maverick
Bang on I think, just read it also and my take aways were:
Jethro and Joe appraisal possibilities - little appraisal needed for Jethro likely to include Jethro channel.
Joe - if appraising I'd imagine likely to test Rappu also. Should be better understood by then.
Exploration programme slide 24 2x drills Guyana. This is part of $150m exploration budget but Tullow made clear another line item could be used for appraisal and were pushed by analysts last year about need to move quickly.
Presentation explicitly states, Joe derisks the prospects in the West of the the block directly contradicting Rystad. There are multiple prospects which cross cross beneath Joe and could be appraised in any work.
Drilling has shown the.propsects have excellent reservoirs
Confirmed clarity of seismic interpretation
Derisks Tertiary plays
Malcy says now 75% CoS likely in CPR, Gil says likely to be much higher. New CPR around end Oct (Gil 3-5 weeks) and in October Tullow have a trading update.
Should think drilling will commence quickly in new year to prove what they have for a quick farm out. Possibly in conjunction with Eco share.
All in very positive, Tullow arent given to easy hyperbole and they are positive indeed on prospects.
Just looked at the TLW presentation, I interpret that the drills scheduled for 2020 are “wildcat” drills as in the key for that slide. This doesn’t include any appraisal drills.
Gill in the podcast stated that they would be drilling the Jethro channel as well as appraising the discoveries
Also anyone worried about lack of pending news flow, just listen to the podcast for what’s coming
The drills.part of the presentation hasn't changed.
I'd be amazed if Tullow arent already discussing their options. The drills will be front loaded as Jethro appraisal to include the channel and likely a Cretaceous. That could add up to 1bn barrels to the c.6-700m already discovered (inc. Hammerhead) and gives them a pretty chunky prize to discuss with potential investors.
Of course, such a course.of action leaves Eco with 255m barrels and another 345m (plus any CPR UPLIFT) still to.play for so even at $8 a barrel a great value opportunity for a major.
So was I, but it's a new presentation and there it is in black and white, two drills for TLW in Guyana overall in 2020. I'm really disappointed TBH. Hope they have a change of heart after the analysis is done. I'm not surprised Gil is so bullish, but at the end of the day we are just a junior partner with a 15% stake. TLW is the operator with lots of other interests and they calls the shots.
Phoebus, this can't be the final decion surely, makes no sense.. Unless there is already a deal in place and these two drills are just part of that deal.. I was hoping for at least 4-5 drills in 2020.. Couple in Q1 and up to 3 in Q2-3...
Fingers crossed that’s the weak hands gone and now we can slowly move upwards.
I have bought another £3k simply because this will climb given the assets and prospects imv.
Hi Phoebus,
…"For 2020 they indicate appraisal options for Jethro and Joe. Why are they intending to go so slowly? …"
The cynical might say : ' In order to weaken ECO's prospects and pick it up on the cheap , before - voila ! - announcing a stepup in activity in 2020 after all, in light of its greater shareholding/understanding of the geology...'
Or some variant thereof. https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=mungo+blazing+saddles+pawn+in+&view=detail&mid=2436B1782FC01C64C1CE2436B1782FC01C64C1CE&FORM=VIRE
ATB
Cases of Chateau Lafite don’t come cheap, I bought in at .47p so I’m comfortable with £1, I’d buy more before they got to that. There’s never reward without risk.
I'm not pleased to see that TLW's post Jethro and Joe results presentation only has two wells pencilled in for 2020 across their Guyana acreage. For 2020 they indicate appraisal options for Jethro and Joe. Why are they intending to go so slowly? If it were me I'd drill Jethro Channel, Hammerhead Extension and one Cretaceous prospect on Orinduik at least in 2020, but it looks like they're planning to do very little. Hopefully things will change after all the analysis, but it would be really frustrating if all we got was an appraisal well on Orinduik and a drill on Kanuku. Maybe TLW needs to farm down to someone with deeper pockets to accelerate things a bit.
https://www.tullowoil.com/Media/docs/default-source/3_investors/tullow-oil-plc_overview-presentation_September2019.pdf?sfvrsn=6
Hey don't knock him. In a previous post he made enough out of ECO to pay for his weekend shopping.
HaHa. Thinking big.
Lol £1, keep dreaming.. We might drop to low 1.30s very briefly, but won't go below that.. Up to 60% drop from the all time high couple of days ago, which is the usual aim crap... People really need to chill, we have had the most incredible drilling campaign so far.. And I am sure the number will be at least triple of what the cpr showed for the two drills that we've just had.. The sp will only recover and go north before our next drilling campaign (I hope it happens and we won't be bought), until then try and catch the sp at the bottom or just relax and have a couple of months off
yeah maybe 10p because we hit 2 dusters and Gil have defrauded $25m of shareholders money for booze & Thai hookers
Write a 'report' and then short. And then reverse position and walk off into the sunset with Eco shares worth a billion +. Simples.
Rubbish!
No immediate upside, they could slide to £1 unless some positive news comes in quickly.
When I looked last night think it bounced off around 143p equivalent in Canada.
Still hold that even if Joe is 60m barrels we are nowhere close to fair value for the assets at current MCAP.
My gut feeling is that we are near the bottom now, maybe 147-150p SP. But only my opinion.
Does anyone have a solid opinion on what the bottom might be here? I’m not looking to trade and will be holding on to these golden tickets as I see them for the long term, hopefully until a buyout, and although long term I know this drop shouldn’t bother me it does still hurt to see big red numbers! In my opinion this was to be expected about now, although I didn’t think it would be so much so quick without going up a good chunk first, because there isn’t a solid news flow expected for a while. Yes, I know we are due proper results from Jethroe. And there is the potential of some kind of takeover news, but that isn’t on any kind of timeline and is just speculative. On top of this it will have been a lot of people’s planned exit point with a solid profit anyway.
I’m thinking, maybe just hoping, that this is about as far as it will drop. Do others have other opinions?