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hammerhead is in the tertiary level
Hopefully the link works this time
Not sure if this has been posted, Merrill's analyst asks John Hess
HESS, says that shallow cretaceous is heavy too
Commerciality of these discoveries is in question, that’s from the
OPERATOR in a RNS, don’t ignore this In favour of opinions from a PI on a BB
with their own agenda
I would say comments on here are misleading, talking up the commerciality,
which, as always, the market will require proven by production , until then
these discoveries will have NO VALUE, as per the SP.
This is now become a very high risk share
Tullow mgmt currently appear a bit overwhelmed and are getting squeezed in Africa as well as making their own mistakes across multiple fields. This more than Guyana is the reason for the share price there.
Alas, I think they chose to use a bad update to kitchen sink the Guyana news. Without the full info they have let the news out with all their other crap to get the worst out of the way and screwed Eco in the process. Once analysis comes back they can then be more confident about 2020 plans and present a good message which for them is much needed. The market can be a cruel mistress but the baldness of Tullows update is extremely questionable.
However, as Sankeys indicates the oil can be produced and as Proselenses (inadvertently I guess) has confirmed the discount is around 5% as indicated by Gil. For a 5% discount a 65% share price fall is a bit much (even given the extra weight of reduced net cashflow impact being more like 10%).
The Stabroek fields are cash positive in under 3 yrs at $60 oil and maybe it means ours take 3.5yrs. That is still fast compared to the time taken for many other developments to even produce cash.
I would agree in thinking that news already being factored into the price. I'm sure it may be used to drive it down further but it's priced in. My reading of the drop on Tullow is that it based on these finds not being developed due to either heavy oil, sulphur etc or the fact that better finds will push this down the list. We await those so we are back to where we are pre drill for both with factoring in the production miss for Tullow driving it down beyond its end of year low this time last year.
It's an uncomfortable waiting game but I believe this block has vast potential.
You really are an arse posting a chart showing $41 to the casual observer when the chart shows WTI (benchmark) is $43 so the discount is around 5% for heavy sour oil. The chart says nothing of viscosity, over pressure or well temperature all of which are favourable in Orinduik.
Sankeys post is the most sensible I have seen and confirms sulphur can be removed and the oil can be blended or used as is. There is no shortage of oil to blend it with.
Joe not commercial stand alone but Jimmy is an exact replica and Rappu sits beneath so the team have already proven up a shed load of oil which even at 5% sulphur and 12°API is commercial and warrants a discount of maybe 25%.
Guyana is about to become a major production hub and plans will be afoot to introduce refining capacity and other infrastructure as required but GoM is well serviced too. The share has dropped 65% from highs so I'd say the discount should now be mostly baked in.
Three months to tell us this, and it seems we still don't know the full story. I'm sorry, we're dealing with crooks here. Not looking forward to Monday.
Its circa 5%. Its quite clear. A few words later they say Liza is 0.5%
Solid coal is commercial onshore..........Canadian tar sands happen to be onshore........GKP's Shaikan is onshore........
Useful chart showing price differentials in the link below, but it only goes to 4% Sulphur. You get the drift though...heavier and higher sulphur is lower value.
I m guessing the c stands for cicra but is it .5% or 5%
I m guessing the c stands for cicra, but is .5% or 5%
Canadian heavy oil has a sulphur content of 4-7%, how many barrels of oil do they produce? Gkp oil production has an API of 11 at the bottom of the Jurassic, currently producing 40k bopd with plan for 110k bopd. Shaiken crude is blended with lighter oils, is there any light oil around Jethro? Only a few billion. In fact given US refinery set up and the saturation of US light oil shale production in recent years, Exxon may well want some heavy blended to their light oil discoveries to meet the demand of these refineries. With the new 2020 laws even oil with a sulphur content of 0.4, which would give a bunker fuel content of 0.8/1.3% will need to be treated to hit the 0.5 cap, this can be done at or pre refinery but virtually all companies are going to have to deal with this - technology will move quickly. Joe stand alone is not commercial and would not be developed, Jethro is and given the volumes will be commercial, more so if there are additional light oil discoveries that it can be blended with.
As usual any negative news is spun as being positive,
TLW and ECO have still not officially informed the market of the API and Sulphur content, when they do, and if its 12API and circa 5% Sulphur - watch the negative reaction.
For sure preliminary results are known. Its 3 months for Gods sake. looks like someone has leaked the info now.
Carapa is the high risk gamble.......if it comes off then things will get better, 80p possible for the share price. If Carapa fails, then hello sub 20p share price imo.
c. 5% means circa 5%.
When they mean 0.5% like for Liza, they say 0.5%. For Jethro/Joe its circa 5%
Given the time the article was released (during trading hours), the share price didn’t react both here and over the pond. None event, zero credibility.
Um... am I reading this wrong? The article says "...crude of 12° API gravity and c.5pc sulphur...". Am I the only one seeing a decimal point before the 5? That would be .5% sulphur, sour but not 5%.
I d like to know where that information came from , given the fact the directors spent north of 200k on shares yesterday.
Proselenes, you pitched up recently, just after the fall wasn’t it? And since then have constantly enlightened us all on how terrible things are and that this stock is a strong don’t buy, etc etc.
So just out of interest; why are you here posting all the time? If it’s that bad why haven’t you just moved on to a stock which your impressive knowledge deems investable?
I think Gill was already trying move on from this find in more recent times and shift focus on to Carapa and 2020 drill schedule. Given that they haven't released details of sulphur, in my opinion it's safe to assume it's bad. Maybe not as bad as that article though. Let's hope Carapa is good news. I'm reasonably hopeful.
As I said before, Carapa results are now the potential Hail Mary.........
Carapa good then ECO recovers to maybe 80p whilst waiting for 2020 drilling.
Carapa fails then ECO will plummet to below 20p imo.
Very high risk now imo.
I notice the absence of attribution in the article.
With hydrogen deslfurisation the oil remains usable and this process can eliminate 60% of sulfur from the oil and cracking can separate some of the heavier elements.
We know your negative on the stock but the litmus test is what is to be drilled in 2020 and the partners may be aiming for 2bn barrels of principally Cretaceous exploration and proving the 5-700m barrels in Jethro and the channel.
2.7bn barrels of likely Cretaceous medium sweet oil in the main of which Eco share is over 400m barrels. However, you're right they might as well put up the shutters and listen to dip****s like you
Maya is a heavy sour crude oil with an API specific gravity between 21 and 22 degrees and a sulfur content of 3.4%, meaning only the most sophisticated refineries are capable of profitably processing it
IF we have 12API and 5% sulpher, sounds like we have a challenge
Not good, feels like we are back to square one.
Whoops, should be Strong Sell opinion, not buy.........LOL :)