No mention of Orinduik at all as if it didn't exist. Seeing Tullow pull out was of no concern. Seeing Total/Qatar pull out though... I'm writing that one off now.
Walvis Basin??? How long have we owned that.... how much work has been done there over the last 5 years?
Only thing that keeps me holding at this point is a possible 3b/4b farmout. Totally agree with Booradley, can't afford to sell at these prices. Once we get the boost from a farmout, will cut my losses. If it has not come by 3rd quarter... safe to say it probably isn't coming.
If Gil has been the master at one thing, it is dangling the carrot just out reach. I feel like I gotta stop being the a$$ pulling the cart and realize, never going to get that carrot!
If "operations" started on the 4th of October and there was a 20-day delay, that pushes the start to October 24th. Today would be about day 24 into a 25-30 day drill campaign. A good chance we are not at TD yet, may not get there for another week.
After much thought, the fact they said drilling operations have begun on the 4th has always bothered me. Why not announce your spud date? Then the Facebook pic of the drill bit be sent out to the rig a few weeks later, but apparently a couple weeks old. Many postulated this was a special drill bit for the sidetrack.
I am now of the opinion that Gill made the announcement when they did as he said they would Spud in September, and it was just a few days later. They had issue with the drill bit possibly before they even spud, so sourced one locally as fast as possible, and this was the one in the Facebook post. So operations started Oct 4, and quickly got derailed. Keith says we are 20 days behind, so my guess is we spud around the 24th, putting us about 22 days into drilling. So no news this week, should be an update next week though.
For those that have been tracking the supply vessels, did traffic pick up to the rig around the 24th?
One drill with two chances of success, each with about a 33% chance of success. (I think 37 and 34, going off memory). If either are successful, they will do a side track to a third target also with about a 33% chance of success.
I am not a mathematician but two chances at 33% is not a 66% chance, otherwise with all three it would add up to 100%. Combined though I believe it is greater then 33%. Maybe a mathematician can weigh in.
The first drill without sidetrack was 25 days weather permitting according to multiple reports, including Gils most recent interview. Gil notoriously gives best case scenarios when it comes to timelines, so I would add a few days onto this even if the weather was perfect.
If they spud on 9th as Toptiger says, 25 days would be this Friday Nov 4. That lines up very well with Harels post with a response from Gil on the 16th saying they may announce a sidetrack in 2-3 weeks, two weeks being Sunday Nov 6.
I don't expect any info this week, but a good chance we get some info next Monday!
Unfortunately, the source for this report is Eco Atlantic. They have been saying a target would be identified to drill in (insert timeframe 2 months from now) for a few years. They always added the proviso "If..." in any of these interviews. I am confident Eco is ready, they have been for some time. Fairly sure Total and Qatar are ready. Until Tullow says they are ready though, nothing is going to happen. The next well does not need to be drilled until Q1 2026. Until I see any inkling from Tullow that they are wanting to drill before it needs to be, I am not holding my breath to see Orinduik drilled any time soon.
3-1 odds... but what is the downside from here vs upside?
If they miss, I suspect this drops below then settles around .40 cdn (25p?). From these levels a loss of about 20%. (Still can't believe we are trading where we are).
If they hit, conservatively, this goes to 2.00 cdn (130p?) and potentially much higher. From these levels a return of 400%!
So, a 1/3 chance (I think it is actually 37%) for a 400% return vs a 20% loss.
The plan some time ago was to de-risk during drilling. Just can't do it though, as it feels like it is fairly close to a duster being priced in!
It is a 25-30 day drill without the sidetrack. I don't think we hear anything next week. We may get news the following week, and I suspect if we do, it won't be good news. So hoping we hear nothing for a few weeks yet.
Lots of people picking dates in October. I really hope you are all wrong. If the drill was spud around the 5th, and there is a 25-30 day drill, an announcement in October would simply be bad news as 25-30 days brings us to Oct 30 - Nov 5. This would mean they are still on site plugging the hole and did not drill the optional sidetrack. 25 - 30 days, plus another 10-15 for the sidetrack, add in a week for analysis (after Jethro/Joe that RNS will include api and sulphur content for sure)... I am an outlier calling Nov 21, but I stand by that guess. That date or anything later should be good news. Anything before Nov 7 and I think we are all disappointed!
Good luck everyone!
Another interview today. About 20 min long. Worth the listen.
Key questions posed:
1 – Matters have been active at ECO in recent weeks, talk us through the rationale behind the JHI deal cancellation and the new cash raise announced on Monday
2 – You seem to have landed fantastic exposure re the Namibian and SA fields given recent finds by majors – what CoS do you put on the upcoming Gazania drill?
3 – Why do you think despite the plethora of broker notes highlighting the undervaluation of ECO that the shares continue to trade at a derisory level?
4 – What are plans offshore Guyana for 2022/23 given it is near 3 years now since the “heavy oil” announcement? Why is it not profitable to develop and pump given current oil prices?
5 – How do you see the news landscape for shareholders panning out during the balance of 2022?
6 – What is the endgame for ECO shareholders on an 18 month – 2 year view?
https://www.alignresearch.co.uk/eco-atlantic-oil-gas/dr-michael-green-interviews-gil-holzman-ceo-of-eco-atlantic-oil-gas/
My back of the napkin price puts us north of 1.40 cad, about 83p. With the excitement around the orange basin and from what I have seen in other drills I expect we hit 75% of a successful drill @ $5 / bl in the ground. We are targeting 300 mbl, and I expect we will have diluted to about 400 mil shares by then once the JHI deal goes through. Plug in the numbers and you get 300 mbl x $5 = $1,500,000,000. We own 50% so $750,000,000 to Eco. Divide by 400,000,000 shares $1.875. 75% of this is $1.40 per share (Canadian).
Where things could get REALLY interesting is if they are able to drill 2B in Q4, I would also expect a drill on Canje at the same time as Exxon's campaign should be starting then too. We could have two drills running at the same time in the two hottest oil basins in the world!!!
I was looking at this news release from the Island Innovator website. Says they have 3 options.
https://www.islanddrilling.no/news/78/island-drilling-company-as-signs-contract-with-dana-petroleum
I missed the options for Petrofac. If all options are exercised then, 3 for Dana and 2 for Petrofac, could we be pushed back a full year? The news release for Petrofac does state "The work will commence right after the completion of the BP-7 well for Dana Petroleum." so could these options they are referring to be an agreed to price for a later date?
Very excited about the up coming drill on 2B that "should" be spudding in Q4. We have contracted the Island Innovator for this project and I see that they have two projects before us (and a 4th after). Petrofac has the drill before us with a Q2/3 schedule, and this looks fine. Concerned a but though with the contract setup for Dana Petroleum. Their contract starts in April for 1 drill, but it looks like they have 3 options!
"Dana Petroleum has awarded Island Drilling Company AS a contract to drill one well with the rig Island Innovator from April 2022. Island Innovator is a 6th generation Harsh Environment rig from 2012. In addition, the rig has three options for other potential work."
If they take advantage of the three options would this typically be before they rig leaves site, pushing back everyone else schedules, or would they be options for 2023 after the current schedule is compete? An extra 3 drills could easily push drilling 2B back 6-9 months.
I think 3B/4B is now the jewel in Eco's crown. If they could only drill one well... this is where I would want it to be. If they can drill it next year that would be fantastic. I have found that if you double the timeframes you get from Gil or Keith you are much less likely to be disappointed (anyone still waiting for Kenya?), hence the 2024 expectations/hopes.
When Gil talks about Orinduik he always includes the proviso "If Tullow...". At this point I will believe Orinduik will be drilled once they have a rig contracted!
It does sound like AOI "wants" to drill 3B/4B next year. Wanting to do something and getting it done are very different. Realistically, if they get a drill on 3B/4B by 2024 I would be happy.
Not to sound negative, I did add a significant amount yesterday on news they have the drill contracted for 2B. That alone should add significant value. According to Panoro it has a 60% chance of success!
Along with a few Canje drills we should have a very interesting 12-18 months without Orinduik or 3B/4B. If either of those do get drilled as well, the next 18 months could be EPIC!
Um... am I reading this wrong? The article says "...crude of 12° API gravity and c.5pc sulphur...". Am I the only one seeing a decimal point before the 5? That would be .5% sulphur, sour but not 5%.