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I read JC's statement as him seeing Cyan's 'projected' 25% share of the market evaporating i.e. nothing to do with the 75% that you are referring to.
We're probably heading back to the 5%-7% share that was originally being dreamt about.
Morning LT and All,
Historically Cyan have maintained a 25% market share, and if this continues to be the rule of thumb in terms of wins going forward then its quite obvious really, that there was always going to be a 75% failure rate, where 75% of the available market going to be awarded to the competition.
The reasons for this 75% failure rate could well already be baked in, such a s solution required, include costs , as well as other variables.
Therefore, i think we should re examine our expectations and prepare for some surprises because even if we succeed , we could well lose approx. 75% of the available market.
There is also the chance that we could beat our historic average also.
On the basis that any of the companies were forced into standards compliance in legal tender documents it makes me wonder where this will go. Compliant companies will have spent significant amounts of cash on R and D to make a compliant tender bid. If India are suddenly moving the goalposts I would guess many of these companies will not be happy.
India not only want the lowest price, they want something for nothing as always..... and India will do whatever it takes to get what India wants, including moving the goalposts. Remember we have had everything from lodged bids, investigations into Adani, one of the biggest smart players etc etc, what next I wonder.
Good morning Vas and all,
Thank you for the report on the Wi-SUN & BIS Alliance Vas, it is appreciated. And I agree, that all Companies will/should have to go through the same process, to access BIS/Wi-SUN certification.
But whether all companies will have to comply to this certification, or whether there will be a two tier system for utilities that cannot afford/can afford to pay for the additional " smart " benefits, we will no doubt find that out eventually, I am sure.
But with an approximate 75%/25% split at the moment, with CyanConnode's contribution to the Indian Smart Meter installation programme, it would be interesting to know what specification/solution/price bracket the other " 75% " are working to.
Just a thought.
Good Luck Vas and all.
LTI.
Just updated reading, surprised at JC's concern, it has always been estimated that CC would get 20 to 25% of RF and more recently has been able to re engineer and do both markets. As SLA's are mandatory what lenght of time is required to prove reliance. I think what is more likely is HPL, who at one time were not meeting requirement are now with, I beleive, Wirepas getting a position. HPL are big and it may just be that the drop in Genus price was due to them. If I remember rightly CC operated with Gateways and Wirepas relied solely on mobile network. If mobiles are subject to drop out and poor security it makes you wonder how any SLA's etc could be met.
The meaning of a couple of words taken from JC's sentence:-
Concerning - causing anxiety; worrying.
Trend - a general direction in which something is developing or changing.
JC's words, not yours, mine or anyone else's.
What is he up to?
As there is no cash call coming, perhaps there is a cheap take out on the horizon.
As I said at the time, the 15p warrants are a red herring - they'll never be taken up.
Would you like me to provide you with the meaning of these two words?
*Untrustworthy
*Devious
Morning Traderz.
With circa 40% drop in share price over the last month it's hardly surprising. Once again JC has shown his naivety with his comments and it's not the first time. I'm prepared for a significant cash call yet again for any new orders, the difference will be that this time it will be VERY
significant. I would not be surprised if some are gearing up for this. The other option is a cheap take out and jobs for the boys. On that basis I have managed my investment on that basis. You don't get this sort of drop in SP for no reason....... and the silence from the company is deafening.
Lots of frothing at the mouth yesterday but our usual suspect ! I think it’s more to do with trigger happy investors over reacting to the slightest thing combined with end of fy normal shenanigans! No doubt being stoked and added to for opportunistic purposes. The bod are generally rubbish at investor value tho, not sure how they run these investor evenings with a straight face ;)
Hi Vas, thanks for this. A really excellent piece of news for CC. Following yesterday's rather deflating news—especially for us lifers— this would be a massive fillip for the hopes of all shareholders. Is this a contemporaneous report from Phil Beecher? If so, there may well be a corresponding and significant rise in the SP—IMHO.
On the back of news that " Wi-SUN FAN Becomes the National Standard for India Smart Meter RF Communication Networks", and Cyan being just one of a few company's in India presently with this certification.
quote
"Phil Beecher, President and CEO of Wi-SUN Alliance. “This recognition is also a huge growth opportunity for member companies based in India, including Cisco, Renesas, Silicon Labs, Texas Instruments, Exegin, and CyanConnode, as well as those looking to expand into the Indian market.”
We have to take it that all others ( especially our competition) will now need to go though a certification process to access BIs / wi-Sun standards certification .
I imagine that could be one reason for a hold up in awards, but just a guess on my part.
On top of that ( which is excellent news for CC, and should have been RNSd) ...JC has now come out with a paper saying that there has been recently a trend of some AMISPS selecting cheaper, possibly inferior technology, at the risk of long term failure of SLA'S, and possibly extra cost.
Which may be the reason they have now aligned BIS and WI-SUN- so every device is aligned in future.
I think JC should have just concentrated on the excellent news about how Wi-SUN FAN is now the new BIS industry standard, Cyan is involved, and is now adopted by Bureau of Indian Standards which will move everyone involved in the 250 m smart meter rollout AND the development of Smart city's in India under the same umbrella.
"[India Smart Grid Forum] ISGF has been closely associated with Wi-SUN Alliance for over a decade and we complement the ground breaking work done by Phill Beecher and his team at Wi-SUN over the years. Wi-SUN’s field area network (FAN) standard has emerged as the global standard which is adopted by IEEE as IEEE 2857 and by Bureau of Indian Standards as IS:18010(Part4/Sec1). This is a great achievement and in India we should ideally make it mandatory for all smart metering and smart city applications which will ensure interoperability between different systems and reduce total cost of ownership of all applications” said Reji Pillai, President (ISGF), Chairman, Global Smart Energy Federation (GSEF)"
With the time lapse between orders being placed, and installation starts, I have little doubt that orders are being cancelled. JC knows far more than he has said, and that news will break in his own time. The $10 million Bangladesh contract, won in 2017, STILL hasn't been officially advised by the company as cancelled.
Have they stopped .. recruitment. ....installing....adding .. recurring..........words
JC moved his lips again McGoof.
Well, i just caught up with this abomination - what is this company actually doing to manage to tank this SP like this ?
Hi Colour, ITT.
JC is a legend in his own mind (and the minds of some of the deluded on here) He has made numerous gaffes over the years to the detriment of the SP, I'm sure anything he has ever come out with has positively affected the SP to the extent it negatively affects it.
Lack of promised updates, smoke and mirrors when it suits and frankly lack of respect for shareholders, all while he's pulling on the cash cow milking teat. When I see people commenting on the amount of his own cash he's put in .....b00l0cks, I would guarantee he's had it back and more over the years with salary and bonuses. Time for someone to take over with the capabil and business acumen to push the company on. I've said it before and will say it again, this comes across as a Lifestyle company for various people.
Couldn't agree more.
JC is clearly suggesting that those offering lower upfront costs are winning the business. If that is true, he should supply some examples of who the winners are and also explain to Cyan shareholders what they (BoD) are intending to do about it to get this show back on the road.
JC is totally responsible for today's drop in the SP.
So, you don't think JC's analogy 'With Advanced Metering Infrastructure Service Providers (AMISPs) vying for contracts, a concerning trend towards prioritizing lower upfront costs over quality and long-term reliability has surfaced', needs any further comment from the company? Anyone who is happy with a CEO saying this, without clarity of why, is sadly deluded.
....... from the first paragraph:-
" In India's ambitious journey towards revolutionizing its energy sector, particularly under initiatives like the Revamped Distribution Sector Scheme ( RDSS ) the selection of technology for smart metering infrastructure emergies as a pivitol decision."
From the second paragraph:-
" As India stands at this crucial juncture, understanding the technological foundations and their implications for the nations energy future is vital. Among the myriad of options, RF technology emerges not just as a solution, but as a strategic advantage in addressing the unique challenges posed by India's vast and varid landscape."
The overall report needs no more clarification from the Company, at least for me, anyway. It was written in language that I can understand and goes into very clear detail, on what is required.
Good Luck all.
LTI.
The company needs to clarify just what was said over the weekend. It's this kind of constant bungling around that holds back the business as no market could ever trust the way they go about almost everything they touch.
Thanks for the other links Vas. It is appreciated.
LTI.
Exactly Vas. Good Luck with your investment(s).
LTI.
Morning LT and Thanks.
It seems to me we may be held in a trading range until we get trading range breaking news. So if you cant beat them - join them seems to be the order of the day. GL Vas
If you search for "India's Smart Metering Landscape" docs.....only two come up.
The first one is the recent one from JC, but interestingly this same article wording is shared on all Linkedin platforms ,BUT the Indian Linkedin is the only one that starts with a different introduction .. below....from 3 days ago.
"Revisiting the critical conversation on hashtag#India's smart metering landscape through our Chairman John Cronin's lens. The article underscores the vital decision-making behind technology selection and shines a light on the imperative of prioritizing quality and long-term viability for short-term gain, ....."
https://www.linkedin.com/company/cyanconnode-india/posts/?feedView=all
The other all start with "In India's ambitious journey towards revolutionizing its energy sector, particularly .."
It looks like horse for courses and have not checked the exact wording in each is the same ..
The other search that comes up is a discussion document by Mayer / Brown last sept 23 entitled
"THE SMART METERING LANDSCAPE IN INDIA"
https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/insights/publications/2023/08/the-smart-metering-landscape-in-india
Good morning Vas and all,
Some very interesting observations in your post yesterday, Vas. And as I also pointed out yesterday, I found the report overall, very encouraging and enlightening.
On another note, I hope you are able to buy the shares that you want. It would seem there is another Buying opportunity presenting itself, as we head towards the end of the tax year.
Good Luck Vas and all.
LTI.
Trying to buy 40,000 shares and being quoted 12.8 by IG. I get 10.25 for 4,000..whats that about?