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The disclosure order , could just be Arty, having them comply with both markets sets of rules
do not leak ANYTHING , until such time as report finalised for RNA release on SEDAR and RNS.
Once results report released , all fair game, last thing any company wants, is the local taverns
spreading the riggers words, its a gusher , its 3 out of 6 brilliant, the firms says we are now going
to..............., after a few jars.
:))
1) FINANCIAL RESULTS - Three Months to June 2021 - Management’s Discussion & Analysis –June 30, 2021 - Page 11
Unrealized loss on commodity derivatives - crude Loss of $9.437m
Unrealized gain on commodity derivatives –butane Profit of $7.165m
I believe for the accountants out there that we should look at the NET position to COPL as the Unrealized loss is pretty much offset by the Unrealized profit on the Butane hedge. The Butane hedge was a great deal for COPL.
https://sedar-filings.thecse.com/00021327/2108311555580552.pdf
2) Property, plant and equipment(“PP&E”) Note - Management’s Discussion & Analysis –June 30, 2021 - Page 15
Petroleum assets relate to two oil producing units that were ACQUIRED further to the Atomic Group Acquisition. Extra production anyone...
3) Filing - Southwestern Production Corp requests confidential status for the subject well based on it
being an exploration well rather than a development well. The well was drilled at the request
of BLM to identify other potential producing horizons in the Barron Flats Deep Unit in order
to keep the unit from being dissolved. SWPs prior development has been in the Shannon Sand
which is now part of Barron Flats Shannon Unit. There are currently no wells in close
proximity to the subject well that produce out of any formations other than the Shannon. SWP
requests for the information of this well to be held confidential while evaluating other
potential horizons, and what a new discovery might mean for their future development plans.
Additional information can be provided at the request of the Commission.
WOGCC Rules - Confidential well status is WITH agreement of Supervisor.
From Rules section - The making and filing of reports, well logs, and directional surveys on exploratory or "wildcat" wells marked confidential shall be kept confidential for six (6) months after the filing due date as required by subsection (a) of this section unless the Owner gives written permission to release such information at an earlier date.
However, there is a report below from 2012 on Horizontal wells (SWP Fed Deep is a Vertical) which argues that it is up to the Commission Supervisor if the Production and sales data also qualify as confidential. Thus we may get Production figures...
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TgHYfeUxHCkkUd6MbFm9_nzfFh5Gjt5K/view
With the official figure of 2720 bopd on 31st August , at the minimum in the plan
for a monthly 10-20% rise by the end of this month would be
2720 + 10% + 10% = 3,291 bopd
We know from previous RNA messages , we had and continued (24% in a few days) to exceed
those expectations
2720 + 20% + 20% = 3917 bopd
If the plus 20% rate has been maintained , we should be well past 2000 net this month
2720 + 30% + 30% = 4597 bopd
Who knows , if all has progressed , end of October 4000bopd+ , already 80% of the way
to the initial 5000 bopd target.
:))
Could it breach $84 today? Either way, the bank balance keeps getting bigger -- because I really do believe we're way above the required 1,600 bopd.
3littlepigs,
My scribbled notes against the ‘Derivative Liabilities’ on the printed off copy of MDA, has a slightly different evaluation : that theses are against the Senior Lender’s warrants, that they pick up 5% warrants on completion of the loan ($7.3M) plus the Libor charges ($2.1M).
The loss in revenue from hedges would surely be a variable.
Not qualified in accounting bud but that was how I interpreted it, from external reading.
3littlepigs
Agree 100%. Hedges are marked-to-market so all absorbed in.
New production might not be hedged so you get full benefit of higher Oil price.
Q3 and Q4 oil production numbers should be strong. I think market is in for an upside surprise which is not at all priced in currently.
There will be some that will reduce this profit due to the hedges in place. They would be right to do so from a cash conversion perspective, but from a P&L perspective we should note that the mark-to-market loss on the hedges has already been accrued in full in the Q2 results (take a look at the SEDAR filing and you'll see a $10.868m loss). Theoretically, as we produce the oil that has been hedges and recognise income at the hedged price we will also see a release of the £10.868, derivative liability. Therefore the profits of future periods will equate to the profit earned on sales at the prevailing WTI price, not the hedged price.
For many this is gobbledegook I know and it is just accounting! But I just wanted to hi-light this fact for those that are creating forward looking P&Ls. From memory, there was no commentary on this board of this derivate loss when the Q2 results were released.
Fingers crossed they found a sweet spot for another layer on the acreage
and change the plan, the test well probably designed to become an
additional producer from the Shannon, once testing completed.
Expect all the upcoming planned wells to be also testing for other secondary
and tertiary targets as they step wells out in all directions.
If a change to that scenario, would be a major boost to reserves, if Arty decided
to side track , offset horizontal, into a new layer from the deeps pilot well at this
stage.
All guesswork until he finds his pen and slaps an all singing all dancing RNA message
across rns, with some facts and figures lol
:))
I would estimate between £1.5m - £2m profit after costs per month which would only increase with increasing Oil production. We could be looking at around +£20m annual profit here.
That would be before adding any production from the 6 oil layers at the 100% owned Fed Deep discovery.
Morning guys, WTI $83.61 - Holy Moly!