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Evening all,
I’ve been monitoring the SA Omicron Situation and am thinking we can make tentative deductions for the below data, it shows that whilst the case rate is increasing exponentially the death rate is far from doing the same. Won’t be long before the rest of the world comes to the same conclusion I think.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table
Increase in deaths lags increase in cases by about 2 weeks and has the whole way through the pandemic. It’s way too early to make any judgement either way.
I put some more in here 2 days ago but looking at the massive increase in infections in SA I’m far from confident at the moment.
Every new variant will follow normal virus patterns. Increase in contagion, but decrease in deaths. Viruses do not want to kill off the hosts.
This new variant might be a good thing, get the non vaccinated to get Covid and build up there immunity the hard way. Like Small pox before, sometimes the way out, is found in the most unexpected ways.
For those wanting to keep close tabs on all things Covid, I can recommend Zvi Mowshowitz's blog
https://thezvi.wordpress.com/
He was consistently ahead of the game in the opening phase and collates and analyses most of the data out there.
He was the guy that Dominic Cummings listened to when in government.
Thanks Wellington, I’d also recommend Dr John Campbell on YT.
@Kick thanks - wasn't aware of him. Seems very sensible and balanced, which is a rarity!
Yeah, salt of the earth, no nonsense chap…..as you say very rare to just be given facts with no underlying propaganda.
Clearly the stock is suppressed because of covid, ‘future of cinema’, the court case, and debt.
For me, the reduction in SP due to Omicron is upside over the next couple of weeks. Great news today re booster efficacy, especially in relation to T-Cells against variants (and the cautious expectation it’ll remain unchanged against Omicron).
So, question is: what’s Omicron not being an issue worth? 30p? So 60% plus gains?
Every-time I think we are on for a good day exactly to opposite happens!....No working this share out it does what it wants. Some good film states should give it a boost..........but who knows
@ianharding, gotta correct you on 3 things.
1. I've said it before and I'll say it again: that isn't how pathogens work. When it comes to evolution nothing "wants" anything, it is just down what produces most high fidelity copies. HIV, Ebola and have been in humans for decades but are still as lethal. Malaria (not a virus but uses us as hosts so your argument still applies) has killed more humans than any other disease throughout history, and still is as deadly as ever. Please stop peddling the misconception that viruses always mutate to become less deadly.
2. Natural infection doesn't guarantee good immunity. With delta about 1 in 5 Natural infections fail to generate neutralising antibodies, and we know don't know if Omicron generates a natural immune response at all. That's why in vaccines we add adjuvant chemicals and space out doses to stimulate a longer lasting immune response.
3. Smallpox came in waves for over 3000 years, killing millions, before it was wiped out by vaccines. This isn't an example of a disease infecting everyone then going away as you suggest. It's a textbook example of why we need to vaccinate people against diseases if you actually want to wipe them out.
Olpps - as ever thanks for sharing your knowledge. To my uneducated carpenters eye & logic, the fact that the death rates are not increasing anywhere near in line with the cases is a good sign? As I said a tentative deduction. Love to hear your comments?
That doesn't remove the fact that vaccines work and they prevent severe infections. Antivaxxers are a self selecting group. They will either get infect repeatedly or fill-up ICUs. People who gets vaccinated, boosted, and wears masks have little to worry.
Deaths and hospitalizations are down and decreasing. Pfizer and moderna can tweak an omicron booster if needed.
^^^ why can’t you report a post for being inconceivably stupid? @Adam2003
@ianharding, I'm not entirely sure about the data you're referring to. I think, from what I've seen, that either contagiousness of Omicron is higher than delta, but case numbers are still so low this could be a statistician artefact. As for lethality, I think it's too soon to tell.
I'm not too worried about vaccine escape just because vaccinated people are catching it as numbers are too small to compare vaxxed and unvaxed, and of course cases in the west will likely be vaccinated because most people are vaccinated. The number of mutations could be a problem for vaccines, but considering the high affinity of delta spike protein for the binding site, this many mutations may actually reduce spike affinity, giving immune systems a better chance to fight it off and making symptoms milder. That is pure speculation on my part, and it is also possible the mutations confer higher affinity binding and weaken vaccine protection : my point is it is too early to tell either way so prepare for the worst but I wouldn't expect it.
As for severity, as someone else pointed out hospitalisation lag infection by 10-14 days and deaths another few weeks after that, so not sure anyone can tell yet.
I do not usually humour these kind of arguments. Please know that the virus is real and the disease is serious. People die ahead of their time either for being vulnerable(high risk), or being unvaccinated(by choice or by circumstance).
Covid is not a scam or a grift.
I like you, Olpps.
@tegop, the issue is that if the antivaxxers take up all the icu beds, those beds aren't available for others. Similarly even if noone dies if they get drugs in hospital, that doesn't stop hospital resources being used up and that had knock on effect for other conditions.
Hi
We do not have any trading update scheduled at the moment. Our next planned reporting will be the full year results mid March
However it is very easy to track box office performance on a monthly basis (even weekly basis)
You can use Box office mojo for the US (please see below for November)
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/november/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses
and the weekend data is available for the UK and other territories
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/by-week/?area=GB
Regarding the court case, we are just waiting on the judgement which should come over the next few months
Kind regards
Investor Relations
Cineworld Group plc
These are the conversations BB’ are for, sensible, respectful objective conversations.
I wish the message from the government and media was as clear cut as you’ve just described it Olpps, I’m fully vaccinated, but know many that are not who just aren’t hearing that argument, it’s not about covid it’s actually about everything else.
Olpps, you seem a knowledgable poster with a science background so I am not trying to pick a fight here but have to point out comparing a coronavirus to malaria, small pox and HIV is very misleading. I agree mutations do not automatically mean less virulent - delta proved otherwise of course. However, the history of other coronaviruses do show they do not follow the trajectory of small pox or HIV. Malaria is not a virus so we should leave that be. ATB.
For what its worth, i do sense O variant will turn out to be more infectious but milder esp for the vaccinated and this current drama will pass. IMO of course.
@sharefall, fair enough. I wasn't trying to say corona virus would be another HIV (which has fairly unique mechanisms for hiding from immune system) so if it cane across I was comparing severities I apologies. My point was just that whilst people might assume pathogens mutate to become less deadly, this isn't a given.
Olpps,
Would it then be fair to say COVID-19 is highly unlikely to mutat so that it is both more transmissible and more deadly while also outrunning medical interventions (vaccines and their updates, pills etc).
One of the current situations is....Current mutation more transmissible but symptoms mild. Similar thing happened with the flue and the more transmissible strain took over which means way less deaths and no further significantly deadly stains.
I wouldn't worry about new variants - nothing Made in China works very well after a year or so.
@funinvestor, I'd say I wouldn't consider it very likely that it would mutate to evade vaccine, be more transmissible AND be more lethal at the same time.
Also vaccine evasion doesn't mean that the drugs will all not work. Some, like monoclonal antibodies, would be relatively easy to evade by structural changes to the spike protein, but others such as methatrexate which modulate the immune response to prevent an over reaction causing injury should work regardless.