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Excellent post Tibbs, I think that sums it up perfectly, perhaps it was the wrong move being against the takeover, I cannot see how it could have been worse for us!
RE: Berenberg raise target price to 173p23 Oct 2023 06:47
More detail this morning from Berenberg on Citywire:
Https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/expert-view-aviva-moneysupermarket-gb-group-firstgroup-capital-ltd/a2428592?re=114049&refea=218441
"Don’t ignore Capital’s investment portfolio, advises Berenberg
With the gold price at $2,000 now, PDI shares rose 6% overnight to A$0.245, which is its highest for almost 2 years and getting towards its highest ever level from around that time.
At current exchange rates that's worth £18m against the £148m m/cap:
Https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/pdi
Allied Gold's shares have also bounced 14% to C$4.80, so this holding is worth another $10m or £6m.
Pity Centamin share holders don't get some uplifting news instead more of the same old boring spin which if it were a meal would be described as "Bland!" at best!
Major indexes in Europe traded flat to higher in the premarket on Tuesday in anticipation of the newest reports on Eurozone inflation and GDP. Heading into another day full of earnings reports, BP, Stellantis, and Caterpillar will also reveal their results for the third quarter in the coming hours.
The DAX gained 0.12% at 8:03 am CET. The Euro Stoxx 50 increased 0.18%. The CAC 40 and the FTSE 100 were flat at the same time.
The euro was down 0.07% against the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for 1.06081. The pound lost 0.17% against the greenback and went for 1.21489 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / DD
Wish we were only down as much, from the highs Cey is down well over 65%, the free cash flow is now a trickle and the dividend is table scraps!
Possibly Endeavour will make a bid again!
Hi Mizolgit,
It is depressing, Centamin is in the spittoon of the "Last Chance Saloon!" and is likely to remain there for some time, in fact it may end up down the lavatory pan the ways things seem to be going!
Hi Cowichan,
Difficult to offer an opinion without knowing all the full facts and how often do ordinary people of mining company retail shareholders get told the full facts or even the full truth!
$375 million may sound a lot, likely worth twice that, but that aside if $375 million is only 5% of the county's economy then it all depends on what are the down sides of this contract?
Far too many multi national companies exploit the countries they operate in often because they pay back handers to corrupt politicians and officials who like far too many company directors don't really care a jot about anything other than filling their own saddle bags with cash and expenses !
How many times the retail shareholders get sold a bum steer by mining companies, have a look at some of the cases in Crux investor, not to mention a company that we are all familiar with!
Have to agree Bobliz35, the best way to convince people and give them confidence in whatever you are trying to sell them is is to buy in yourself!
See my communication below-
Questions for Investor Meet Presentation -Why aren’t the BOD buying shares?
Dear CEO Martin Horgan,
There seems to be some reason why with the POG at around $2000 the free cash flow seems to remain poor and despite polished company presentations the market remains to value the company as though all isn’t as well as being claimed!
So It seems very clear now that however polished and in many respects stage managed the company presentation’s, it’s not enough because the market, existing shareholders and potential new investors seem to retain serious reservations about the true state of the company, it is regraded by many now as a short term trading stock, not an investment!
I appreciate that that a directors bonus scheme is in operation, but in reality the hurdles are pretty low and rewards aren’t linked to the share price, so basically its directors being awarded shares for doing their job, not really that convincing to those who have bought shares that are now at 35% of what they once were!
The measure of a director’s effeteness and worth is directly related to the company share price, so what better way for you and your fellow BOD to demonstrate your confidence and belief in your forward strategy for company to the market and other existing and potential shareholders than to step up to the plate by making some substantial share purchases, say at least 30% of a year’s salary, because if is all as well as your company presentations would like everyone else to believe then you and your fellow BOD members would be able to benefit just like other ordinary shareholders from the rise in share price, an additional but justifiable directors bonus it might be said!
However if none of the Centamin BOD are willing to put some of their own “Skin”, that is money out their own pocket, rather than just hanging onto free bonus shares until they are allowed to sell them, then it’s time to be honest and seriously consider resigning and let the company be taken over by others!
Yours Sincerely
Contact details supplied
UK Shareholder
Hi Sotolo,
Have to agree with your partner, in fact they are so bored they can't be asked to buy any shares out of their own pocket, although the CFO is now in favour of buying back shares with the company's / shareholders cash, although with his caveat!
Agree with you Cowichan, including who has the biggest ego, although to be fair they both make big claims but seem to have difficulty delivering, but both are very adept in moving the goal posts or kicking the can a bit further down the road!
Ahram Online , Monday 30 Oct 2023
The Egyptian government is planning to create around 800,000 new jobs during the fiscal year 2023/2024, according to a report by the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development on Sunday.
The new jobs will be provided mainly in agriculture, construction, retail, and manufacturing sectors, the report said.
The government plans to increase female contribution to the labour force from 16 percent to 25 percent in the current fiscal year.
https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/511262/Business/Economy/Egypt-plans-to-create-,-jobs-in-FY.aspx
------------------------------>>>>
Is there any leader more full of themselves than Sisi? Mr Horgan came close today - but seriously, if creating jobs was as simple as issuing a press release...
And somebody tell Egypt's women to get a move on - they got to mobilize an additional 9% in a jiffy
PS my non financial and non share buying (sensible) partner over heard some of it and exclaimed “ I wouldn’t invest in them they sound so boring, how can they make a business grow when t✝️are so dull and unexcited” more or less what you were saying Boblitz.
And of course 1st January 2024 Egypt becomes full mamber of BRICS ,with probably lower fuel prices paid in local currency.
So not paying in foreign reserves, and possibly connected to Turkstream Pipeline.
Food neccesary from other Brics nations.
Bob. Lovely and pertinent post, correct as ever, best regards
What did we learn from this chat.
1. Nugrus drilling results should come in either late this quarter or during quarter 1 2024.
2. Additional wWastre stripping is 80% done. It will finish probably Q2 in 2024 as the work tails off.
3.The CFO is for share buy backs at the current price providing it does not impact on development and maintenance and so forth.
4. The diesel cost is now priced at 75 cents a litre instead of 50 cents. $18M is saved per annum having the solar plant which provided 40% of energy needs for 8 hours a day.
5. The underground mining rates reach 1.4M tonnes 3 years from now. I would therefore expect the rate of increase is 10% in 2024. No mention of what may happen to feed grade but clearly a higher tonnage rate does help if declined a little.
6. AISC was projected to fall nearer to $1100 as depicted by graphs. $1250 AISC or near to it could be thetarget this year.
7. Doropo is in an under developed are of the country. (It will mean more investment in staff training if they are to avoid what has happened to Hummingbird as reported last week) Next Doropo study needs to go into human resources thoroughly.
8. Strip ratios after 2024 go up and stockpiles go down hmmm.
9. Moved Capex from 2024 to 2023 is around $20M for fleet expansion and power line deposit. (Sets up a better 2024 and probably aids lower AISC forecast.)
10. Not impressed with the lower share price comments. He could have pointed out the trend since July on equities is bad in most sectors and stocks. (The liquidation comment on equity portfolios arose because of high USA Tresuary issuance. Yellen sets Q4 issuance details this wednesday and as reported in zero hedge tonight it could decide the direction of markets for the rest of the year.
All the best Tony
You might want to have a look at what happened to First Quantum in the Panama. Down 30% today
Hi Sotolo et al here. Bit of fun so dont take it too seriously and send hate messages .
What was drummed in to me at business school was not diversity ,not carbon emmissionss , climate change , the teachings of Marx or Engels nor the dangers associated with excessive drinking . smoking, or fatty foods. physocological inference and misguidance and propoganda . NO It was "nothing happens until somebody sells something" Hogan may be an excellent mining engineer , he may be an excellent financial businessman . but selling Sukari to retail or wholesale investors just aint in him . no matter whether he thinks it is or not.
Oh well .back in the dole queue.
Regards and good health and best wishes to all
Bob
I sent in 2 comments during the event. Which I was pleasantly surprised Alex had the tenacity to put forward to Mr Horgan, uncomfortable as I bet it was for the CEO :
#1 Paying laborers & legal fees while exiting BF is one thing but the 2022 annual report show a $2,000,000 license renewal fee that was paid in 2022. That's the bigger amount that doesn't make sense.
#2 Appreciate you asking the difficult question Alex, Props to you. However, MH left out the fact that Centamin received a letter from BF in December 2021 saying the license was non-renewable. So to believe Centamin would send 2million to a country who didn't ask for the renewal fee (as per BF letter) and under a coup is questionable
----------------------------->>>
Final Thoughts
We should have had Alex on the Centamin board these last several years - I bet things would have turned out better for shareholders
Annoying to hear Horgan obfuscate on the rhetorical question of why share price is low. The answer is blindingly obvious that profits are so reduced. But he tries to blame poor UK mid cap market (which hasn’t fallen anything like Centamin) or the Israel Gaza situation caring and informed as a. ‘Significant shareholder myself’. I had a bit of time for him but not when he doesn’t just come straight, second rate I would say
Tibbs I think you can email questions during the presentation?
Panama president asks voters to decide on contentious First Quantum mining contract
PANAMA CITY, Oct 29 (Reuters) - President Laurentino Cortizo said on Sunday Panama would hold a referendum to decide whether to scrap a contract with Canadian miner First Quantum's local unit following days of protests by thousands of people opposed to the open pit copper mine project.
The vote will take place Dec. 17 and its result would be binding, Cortizo said in a video message.
"I've respectfully listened to those who oppose the contract with Minera Panama," Cortizo said, using the name of First Quantum's local unit.
Neither First Quantum nor Minera Panama immediately responded to requests for comment.
Panama's government and the miner had agreed on a contract which would guarantee the Central American nation an annual income of $375 million while allowing First Quantum's local unit to operate the Cobre Panama project, an open-pit copper mine, for at least 20 years.
Protesters have criticized both the deal and the mine's environmental costs, even after Cortizo on Friday issued a decree rejecting all new mining projects.
In a statement late Sunday, Cortizo's office noted that the contract was first established in 1991.
After Cortizo's announcement, Panama's main workers' union said its members will keep protesting in the streets until the contract is annulled.
"There's no maneuver in this fight that will deceive the people," a union representative said.
The Cobre Panama mine's activity accounts for nearly 5% of the country's economy, and last year represented about half of First Quantum's EBITDA.
------------------------------------>>>>
Talk about extreme measures. FQ shares down 30% so far today...
What a pity we have to just listen and cant ask telephone questions!
There are many factors to consider here for the company, it' shareholders and indeed the Egyptian Government including-
1. The grid can't cope at peek time now and any addition and significant demand for industrial use depending on the time may well exacerbate the power down times!
2.The CAPEX justification for linking to the Egyptian main grid is dependent upon the cost advantages including cost break even time and future cost efficiencies all of which are dependent on the reliability of electricity which at present is erratic and likely to get worse?
3. Possibly more importunately Centamin has always been keen to be seen as a "Good Guy" in its host country by regarding its moral and environmental responsibilities as priorities by considering the wellbeing of its workforce and the wider Egyptian community.
What then if electricity were to be denied to those people of the wider community in preference to supplying Centamin then that would surely be going against the ethos and core principle that Centamin has been so keen to promote over the years?
If you read my post in context and took it in before flying off the handle you would have realised that my comments were in response to Tibbs post & not yours.
I neither know nor care what you are doing but I do like bananas if you would truly like to throw a couple my way :)
Yes it is. When the power's there they can use it. When not they can continue trucking and burning diesel in spite of the enormous expense and inefficiency this entails.