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I am expecting a divi of just 3c with the final results. Divi normally paid in May.
Unusual that the final divi is lower than interim, but many firms scrapped finals last year, while CEY paid 6c final in May 20 as well as next interim in Sept 20.
9c divi = approx 5.7% yield. This is good if bought near current level but not so good if bought near the 52 week high.
Hope Q4 production beats previous guidance as CEY have history of understating guidance, so results look better.
A debt free business is pretty rare in the FTSE250. Let's hope they sort out Sukari's clean up and can produce more efficiently going forward, as it does lookl ike a long haul before getting back to peak prod'n levels.
My average cost is 130p, after purchases at 126p and 133p over the last few weeks.
Disappointed that SP has fallen every day since my recent purchase on 7th Jan, when I thought SP was trending up.
Typical timing for C S D I
Cheers & GLA, CSDI
The divi can be near halved like the share price and still yield 6%. They have the cash to cover it for the next 3 years and predict profits will be back in 2024, so we should still be getting that fab 6% which ultimately supports the share price - as long as gold keeps up at these levels or higher
Hi Mark, I did not say open a short I said sell. I didn’t read into it enough to suggest short.
Hi Sotolo, the divi is never guaranteed, many companies have had to pull their divis in the past,
but from what you say regarding levels of profitability at threat, wouldn’t the current divi levels be at threat here with CEY?
I keep posting that I have no idea if it will fall further and am certainly not convinced of such. “ at the moment I am neither a seller nor a buyer, the price mainly depends on which way gold goes,” and I don’t have a clue, probably short term down, mid up, but I am certainly not going to sell Cey, a long term holding, when it could as easily rise or fall. So why sell??? Stocks could well tumble, money lose value...plus borrowing is still a real -1%. Repeat I remain very long, I am not a trader and this has a great divi plus 2024 recovery prospects plus play on gold, but many are posting wrong figures, and forgetting non aisc Capex, that I just point out to be helpful
>, I would sell now as you seem convinced it will fall further
As a side note someone who is short CEY would have already "sold" with a view to it falling further
Hey, no worries Sotolo. My rationale for holding at present is based on the overall annual profitability for 2020- all figures are known and we can work it out- if we use the worse case prediction from the AISC in the last RNS from q4, and the figures "leaked" which are at the upper end of revised forecast. Since Oct big drops (x2), I have only seen positive news, in the WebCast, on new licenses(admittedly still under negotiation), and am impressed with the CEO. The Oct news was so bad, typically these sort of things cause a bigger drop than financials warrant due to confidence reduction. I think that meeting the re-forecast figures, should be received well as ship is steadied and back on track. Sometimes this alone causes a rise as the dip was probably over done. Sentiment has massive sway on a stock, especially in a sole mining operation. CEY has relative huge cash reserves, and with new licenses, somewhere to invest. Don't take this the wrong way, but if I held your views, I would sell now as you seem convinced it will fall further, then buy back just before ex-divi to get your divi, then repeat. CEY have provided all the info for next year, and it was stated in the webcast as conservative on prod and gold price, so upside potential is there. We never know what is, or is not priced in, but the most obvious approach is of course it's priced in. But when a company drops real hard and fast like this one did, it is often overdone and this overdone springs back when confidence returns to the level it should have been in the drop. I live in hope, and each to their own view, on RNS release is when we find out- good luck.
Sorry Steve. Sadly I have not ignored Cost savings which are already included by management in the Aisc which is still heftily raised despite the savings because spread across reduced output and hefty wall expenditure. And $90m Capex is on top.
Hi Mr Gnome,
Well it seems that once again the USA has deposed a dictator they didn't like and made things far worse by creating a power vacuum in the region!
I have sent a couple of tweets to Centamin stating share holders need to be updated on these projects and in Egypt we need progress and production, not excuses !
Also stated that the board must be aware that Youssef isn't up to running Sukari properly and its time to appoint a suitably qualified Sukari general manager
The main problem is not ISIS but the mafioso, who make buckets of money controlling the trading drugs, people etc across the
Sahara. They do not need to go into the ppulated areas, where they cause conflict, just wait int he sanddunes, and the caves. Great cash flow business, low CAPEX, high margins.
The massive destablisation caused by the reckless action and freeing of Libya, created a flow of mercenaries into the Sahara who were all dreesed up and gunned up, who were unemployed ... Effectively this has destabilised Mali, Niger, and the northern reahes of Burkina Faso by encouraging and financing banditry. I think ISIS is realsitcally a minor player int he mix. Banditry is also minor, and getting less. Much easier to go for the high margin drug trade, and also human trafficking, than stealing chickens and goats, and robber the poor.
a cycnical gnome.
In a deceptively cryptic tweet, the world's richest man told his 42 million followers to just: "Use Signal."
Many of them followed that order blindly, and it led to a very expensive mistake.
They thought Mr Musk was telling them to buy shares in a small medical device firm (Signal Advance). So they did, without knowing what it actually was.
By adopting the "buy now, think later" strategy, they drove the company's share price up by an astonishing 11,708 per cent (in just three days).
Absolutely amazing stuff. Dont ever think the market has any brains.
Interesting Sotolo, you omit costs savings and other positive items brought up by the CEO in his December Webcast.
Thanks Mr Bond, I am not a trader, I only sell a small percentage of my core holding when it seems very obvious , to make myself feel better as they tumble, ie after the terrible wall news, or buy some back when they seem to have fallen too much. I have no idea what this share price will drop to now, but it seems fairly resilient and the value seems around fair assuming the Capex and aisc fall back in 2024 as predicted, and we return to proper profit. In the meantime, with our mountain of cash and a near halved share price, the 6% dividend should remain affordable; it will only cost the company half as much. tho only be half as much to us too. So at the moment I am neither a seller nor a buyer, the price mainly depends on which way gold goes, I think short term down with interest rate rise, mid term up with inflation and real interest rate fall, but none of us really has a clue just now. Which brings us to the 4th quarter results on Tuesday, I am hoping for them to be slightly better than management suggested, but that could still lead to selling by those who are unprepared for falling profits despite being told, or on the other hand the market could be relieved if not worse than predicted. It may also depend on any more detail for the next couple of years, on the new mining concessions and on W Africa. Sadly however I have had to become a long term holder waiting patiently for a recovery that may not come for a couple of years, gold dependent, as with the share nearly halved my new house building project is very depressingly sadly off for a while. I remain locked in above our garage with planning to replace a large burned down house, growing older watching Centamin too closely, Hoc is currently worse. What times and how fickle a mistress gold and miners can be.
Cowichan ,interesting, its what I have expected .
Thank you Sotolo ,for your very interesting views.
What price do you think this share will drop too ?
Before you buy more ,after the sheeple have panicked again. And you continue to trade for your " House repair fund.".
Wish all well, but you do push the boundaries, too say the least.
my post regarding West Africa - Centamin's assets are much better positioned than others
MarkBell,I have about the same but that is with no non aisc Capex taken off. They have not given a figure that I can see for this year, but for the next 2 or 3 years they are spending an extra $90m (!!) on Capex not included in aisc, which with this aisc also being higher will almost wipe out profits next year. The question for me is how much of your figure for profits this year will be cut, if it were anywhere near next year’s $90m, it would mor than halve the figure you expect tho I don’t think it will be that bad this year, but may be worse than many think. Then the key to the share price becomes prospects for next year, do they still forecast a fall of around three quarters in profits next year. Profits then improves little by little in 2022 and 2023, then if everything is equal profits may recover towards where they were last year in 2024 which is a long time to wait to not even get back where we were, unless we are saved by gold, but that doesn’t look likely in the immediate future. However I remain a holder for the fabulous dividend, no debt, prospects of more exploration winning ounces back, tho at a cost, and gold eventually rising. You did ask!
Getting near a buying opportunity surely, hindsight hmm. Gla
Autonomy, that has usually been the case, although in this instance other forces (BIS ,FED, Central Banks) are at work to make sure that gold stays down, watch the video presentation I posted yesterday on the First weeks trading of 2021.
Things are getting so dire now that those running the market don't try to conceal what they are about, because the have to try to get things in better shape before the final part of Basil 3 becomes mandatory law.
The LBME a complicit partner in the manipulation of the POG cartel has been desperately lobbying to be exempted from the new Basil 3 regulations because it it will have to actually supply real bullion on demand rather than paying clients a premium to accept paper settlements.
Freedom forecast Revenue 2020 is $810m (NET Profit $136m)..last years Operating profit I have $173m and Net Profit of $87.5m 2019
Forecast revenue just under 900m, last year was 652m so why would this year's op be less than last years 167 m?
Always thought that when the Dow went down gold went up as a safe haven,but recently it's been following it
How low can this go
Sotolo, numbers for 2020 I have operating profit @ $144m , consensus Brokers estimate is a Net profit @ $136m (which I can't see from $144m operating). What numbers do you have?