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Steve, I remember the last time you did it, Centamin revisited sub 90p.
Sold on nice profit, don’t like to stay in overnight and Will see what happens tomorrow when data drops.
Well done all holders here- great daily rise for you, and well done any traders who managed to get in the rise and take a daily profit.
Gold and GDX now in retreat. Have taken some profits off the table at 99p.
Thanks Tornadotony , mrtibbles for your words.
Hi Tibbs ,
Giving a range for production guidance is a method used by the losers to hide a failure on the target achievement.
3bear the first quarter is always a bit softer because they programme the major services of equipment and plant at that time of year, after the year end push and the weather is marginally better for the grafters in the workshops etc.
Daz not sure 4th qtr was overly spectacular if you take the second half of the year the average is 119,000 ounces per Qtr and they admit to tonnes/ounces sitting on the ROM from 3rd qtr process plant repair shortfall.
I bet they were sweating a bit come a week to go to the year end and I still believe they have the capacity to meet the targets for 2024, 119,000 ounces a Qtr gives them above low end target.
There is so much flexibility above and below ground and providing there are no disasters in the processing it should be an achievable mid production target.
Funny enough Horgan says somewhere in the Q4 results presentation that Q1 2024 is expected to be slightly softer than the rest of the year even though production guidance is split 50-50 between H1:H2... the thick plottens as my old boss used to say.
Now hitting a descending resistance line. Last time this happened was on 12th January.
Why not forward borrow from Q2 then 😂😂😂
Seriously I think if that was investigated they would be in court. It means there is no point in producing quarterly returns, they become meaningless.
Agreed Razor's, strange isn't it!
If they’ve forward borrowed from Q1 production to hit last years 450,000 ounces, then I guess we can expect Q1 figures to be only average production, with a big jump on Q2. Or perhaps, they will they just average out the ‘borrow’ over each quarter. Thoughts?
GDX in USA rose 2.3% so this would have opened at 95p. The key now is to watch GDX and the gold price. We will know what the correct thing to do now in a few days time unfortunately. Will gold and Centamin shoot up or will both retreat and close two CEY SP chart gaps below. Crystal ball time.
Not just CEY.
Resources stocks in general seem to be having a better day. EDV etc
More likely that overall politics are having an effect.
With China talking about repatriating ALOT of money back to china how will the US dollar react?
I weaker dollar suggests stronger commodity prices which would be better for miners.
Markets looking ahead ??
I’ve been following Centamin for quite a few years and today is the most peculiar share price reaction I’ve seen to date.
I would say so far the M Henderson's contributions have been accurate.
I will need to take a look at the original RNS but don't get approx 100,000 ounces over LOM proven against probable making such a difference as there have been far more impressive RNS announcements to effect the SP, is it maybe the market catching up on the very good year end results?
Pinching from 1st quarter to make the year end result will still mean getting the ounces out of the ground and through the process because has to pass audit so has to be fact not a lie.
I was originally sceptical about Henderson, but he has proven to be far more genuine then so many charlatans who visit LSE. Grateful for the inputs Henderson. (I also do not hold it against you if you get it wrong as we all are responsible for our own victories and mistakes).
Overall, I am happy to have recovered my portfolio to 1 January. Now watching what happens to gold prices.
He hinted yesterday that the big lie was a negative and around borrowing Peter to pay Paul on Q1 results for 2024
Does this have anything to do with the ‘lie’ that Henderson mentioned. Opinions?
I just checked and I totally missed all the action, sold for a nice little unexpected profit. I thought I’d be holding my latest tranche at 93p for some time yet. Happy days.
Of this course this could be a bull trap, so most traders who got in the rise may have exited already, or, some- like me, will have this time adjusted their stop loss to to break even or just above for the day. Example, I got in on the rise, of course missed the sudden jump, but now profit is over 2% so simply put a S/L into 2% less than the current SP so if it does indeed drop back, the S/L will kick in and I'll make 0.5 % but will protect against any bull trap.... I haven't gone short for years since getting stung on a gold short CFD where I watched my money drain in a few horrible minutes!
Alas, I'd be surprised if any "short traders" got burnt as they would most likely day trade and not leave overnight. For the same reason long ones don't leave overnight (like me).
A good point Tibbs - it'll have caught the shorts and the stops.
Hi Rebess, neither am I offering trading advice, although an error such as this will have caught any traders going short with their pants down, although I have no time for those parasites!
Rebess
I think you are right Rebess. Now massively overbought when a CEO and quite a few people around him did not spot an error in reserves for 5 weeks. The volume was not high behind the spike. We shall see if this ends up being a bull trap or some kind of pump and dump in the coming days. There is a gap in the chart caused by an RNS and although they sometimes do not get filled, I suspect the gap at 93.05p eventually gets back filled.
The alternative is that a massive gold and gold miner is underway. However the HoC rise was on the merit of a 20% increase in annual production for 2024. The rise there has a lot more merit.