The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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December gold production 6119 oz with AISC 680
Forecasting revenue of 157 million for year ending 2022
Looking good
Ignore my last, it was from Friday!!!!!!!!!!!
Berenberg and Liberum raise to "Buy", targets of 112 and 106 respectively.
The basis for the value of fiat currency is simply trust, trust in government. This is on short supply and dwindling at a faster rate than the value of the $.
An interesting twist today, showing the layers of government mediocracy (not to mention inco@mpete?cy) we deal with in Australia, is the case of Novak Djokovic, who had done everything he was asked to to comply with Australian Immigration (Court finding), to defend his Australian Open, and ended up in house arrest/detention (Australian Government finding) in a Melbourne "Detention Hotel". One hopes it is a lot better than the Hotel in which a lot of virus not to mention mismanagement emanated from about 18 months ago?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/28/victoria-hotel-quarantine-failures-responsible-for-covid-second-wave-and-768-deaths-inquiry-told
No we have the case challenged in court, and the Government decision to cancel the Visa found invalid in a court of Law?
Summing up...
@PaulFMcNamee
Novak Djokovic has had his day in court, with all the evidence presented, and comprehensively won … let’s respect the court’s decision and move to the other court where sport is played
..amen ...
Thanks goodness the Englsih cricket team was not treated in this manner, and perhaps it may have been better if they were?
Final test starts Friday, and hopefully Djokovic's next test ois ont he tennis court!
best (sorry off topic, but its a strong topic in Australia)
the gnome
Major European stock markets stood in the positive territory ahead of Monday's session as investors awaited the latest data on the state of employment across the Eurozone during November.
The weekend behind was marked by news that the French government likely won't impose a general COVID-19 vaccine mandate, since it considers the measures wouldn't encourage citizens to request the jab.
The DAX gained 0.08% at 7:08 am CET, while the FTSE 100 increased by 0.12% and the CAC 40 advanced 0.15%.
The euro stood 0.26% lower against the dollar to sell for 1.13316 at 7:16 am CET, while the pound dropped 0.09% to $1.35837.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / ND
Cherry they may have changed their view on gold prices which is the basis of valuing companies as well.
One might suggest that the number of sell notes by Liberum in the past few months might have had some effect on the share price. Is it possible that a "client " of theirs filled its boots at the lows and riding the upwave now that their sentiment has changed significantly ?
Hoping cryptos go up - far more volatile than gold.
So glad I didn’t listen to the stock market crash doomsayers since March 2020- I’d be jumping off a very high cliff now- as I keep saying look at the performance of pm stocks at crash points- just as dire as everything else- so if you think a crash is coming suggest you liquidate here pretty damn sharpish.
Since the last mini crash in march2020 US markets pretty much doubled since the low point when many were saying much further to drop and then later in the year on second said a double worse dip was coming etc etc - one day for sure a market dip/crash will come but performance is clear over past 30years/ listen to the Doomsayers and you will be skint- listen to the optimists and you will be well rewarded…
Guys if you’re making a post can you please start a new title as needed and not post on the current top of the list.
If you own the top of the list title and someone posts some random comment on your thread it can be very irritating when the title owner is waiting for a response from the rest of the board.
I don't take printing this lightly as I value my peace but feel if the situation isn’t highlighted that the irritation will continue.
Happy Sunday y’al
Wisco quite agree!
With bitcoin dropping, high inflation, and commodity prices high, and rumours of a stock market fall (especially in tech stocks and some emerging markets) there are lots of obvious reasons why gold can go up. Or down! My bet is up! Hoping cryptos drop and gold gets a nice boost!
Sorry this is another gloomy one, today’s FT article headlined: “Gold struggles to attract investors as interest rates rise headwinds gather amid heavy outflows fro ETF’s backed by the precious metal”. They talk to a number of banks etc and suggest gold will continue to fall through 2022 with the outflow of investment demand accelerating. I sincerely hope it is wrong.
Without wishing to take anyone's side on this issue. - Now that Barrick has become a part of the new-Egyptian landscape, the appointment of ex-Barrick executives/senior-management by Centamin is a helluva coincidence. - After the Endeavour/Pardey experience, it's natural to have suspicions. - Time will tell sooner rather than later here I feel.
Berenberg also upped Centamin to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’ and increased the price target to 112p from 104p.
The bank said it was changing its rating after the pullback in the shares following the recent capital markets day, as it believes the gold miner is well positioned to meet new guidance, with upside potential from the Egyptian exploration portfolio.
"We remain more cautious on the company’s West African assets," it said, adding that Centamin retains a solid balance sheet and should produce 450koz-500koz over the longer term from Sukari.
Quite a turn around from Liberum, bears to bulls and a buy Rec.
The case for selling Endeavour
As we noted in our initiation report (Ambitious, nimble West African gorilla is
currently fully valued, 15 December 2021), there is much to commend about
Endeavour. The company has an established track record at meeting
guidance, while committed minimum dividends and share buybacks make for
attractive indicative shareholder returns.
However, these all appear to be priced in: the market appears to be valuing
Endeavour - including upside potential - using a long-term gold price of
c.US$1,715/oz, or a low discount rate of c.5% (despite the difficult
geographies in which the company operates).
Meanwhile, Endeavour is currently relatively low-cost, but we will be watching
in 2022 to see just how well it is able to contain the inflationary pressures that
are being experienced in the mining industry globally. Margins could be
further pressured if the gold price trends down as we forecast.
In such a scenario, Endeavour’s committed minimum dividends could appear
increasingly attractive, particularly if the company maintains (or ups) the
tempo of share buybacks. However, a gold price downtrend could stymie
Endeavour’s hopes of joining the FTSE 100, particularly if the FTSE 100
trends up (Liberum’s strategy analysts are forecasting a 15-20% rise in that
index during 2022).
The short of it is that we see only a slim chance of FTSE 100 inclusion in the
near term, and our expectation is that this will offset the attractions of the
shareholder returns policy. Whilst there are a number of potential upside
catalysts during 2022 (e.g. DFS results for two key projects are to be released
in early 2022), these are relatively minor in the grand scheme of things. For
these reasons, we initiated with a HOLD rating.
Our Target Price for Endeavour of 1316p implies 15% downside, the
unattractiveness of which is magnified when set against the 22% upside to
our new Centamin target. We therefore downgrade Endeavour to SELL.
For those seeking a long-short idea for the new year, we
would like to suggest going long on Centamin and short on
Endeavour Mining. This morning, we published a revamped
model for Centamin, on the basis of which we have
upgraded our rating to BUY and set a new Target Price of
106p, implying 22% upside (previously: SELL, 86p). In
contrast, our existing Endeavour Mining target price of
1316p has 15% downside. We therefore downgrade our
Endeavour recommendation to SELL (from HOLD).
The case for buying Centamin
We have revamped our Centamin model following the Sukari Life-of-Asset
(LOA) Phase 2 review (A time to buy, 7 January 2022). To go with our existing
Base Case, we now add an Upside Case, which provides an indication as to
the potential value-add from Centamin’s Underground (UG) Expansion Case
(on which the company should complete a study in H2’22) and the bonanza
structure at Bast.
Our model suggests that the current share price is effectively pricing in the
Centamin’s Sukari Interim Case which, it has to be said, does include a
generous amount of upside (e.g. it assumes a significant amount of
underground Resource Conversion).
However, we feel reasonably confident that the UG Expansion Study will have
a positive outcome that is similar to, or better than, that currently presented
by Centamin. There is also the mouth-watering prospect of bonanza
structures being brought into the mine plan: we see the Bast structure turbo-
charging 2023 production, followed by the 5105 structure a year or two later.
Meanwhile, we were previously projecting relatively modest dividend yields of
c.2.2-2.6%. Whilst we still expect that for 2022 to be c.2.2%, our Upside
Case is indicating attractive yields of 3.2% in 2023 and 3.8% in 2024 –
despite that we expect the price of gold to be trending down towards
US$1,600/oz over that period.
With the froth now off, and potential for multiple exploration-related catalysts
during 2022 (in particular, we will be eagerly awaiting the results of the Sukari
airborne survey), we believe now to be the right time to reverse our call,
upgrading it to BUY.
Yes we have stayed loyal still with 532040 shares, these were worth £1.15m the summer before last, now worth about £470k, hence no building . I wish more posters had given reasons for it to fall as I never believe myself against so much positivity, though Tiger by the Tail was great in seeing the long fall, selling near the top and moving into Tharisa where I followed and am very hopeful - rhodium up 25% this week!. I still believe different, though respectful views on these boards are helpful, especially in these increasingly bullying times, so enjoy the views of brexiteers and remainders, vaccine supporters and antivaxers, lock down and mask champions and their opponents, Tory Lib Green and Labour voters and especially those who see Cey rising and falling, as dialectic, or Socratic dialogue, is what leads to informative conclusions. The big question here, of the last few years, remains what happens to gold shares when the debt bubble comes home to roost and the stock market crashes , that all the above arguments contribute to; more interesting contributions on that and other influences on the Cey share price very welcome to me and hopefully others, especially if could possibly be without the accompanying modern social media insults to any different view or tribe.
Well said Sotolo and happy new year.
"May the Force be with you" and indeed all CEY shareholderrs.
This is an interesting and salutary read, another reason gold miners have fallen as their costs are a boy to explode, though hopefully ours will be somewhat mitigated by our solar investment: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/gold-price-framework-vol-2-the-energy-side-of-the-equation-part-ii
“We find that gold miners are not just exposed to significant direct energy costs such as fuels and power; their indirect energy exposure is even larger. Our bottom up analysis shows that ~50% of production costs of the average gold miner are closely linked to energy prices….
gold mining is also energy intensive beyond the diesel and electricity that is consumed to mine and process the gold and cool the underground mines. Gold mining requires a lot of energy intensive resources and materials such as steel, chemicals, cement and tires and also machinery (trucks, excavators, mills) which consume energy in the manufacturing process. Ultimately even wages partially reflect energy costs as changes in energy prices affect the living costs such as housing and food of workers. We call these the indirect energy costs. We presume that the companies don’t even know themselves what the true energy exposure of these costs is. However, for this report, we meticulously dissected the expense side of the income statements of the largest gold producers in the world in order to estimate how much these indirect energy costs drive the expense side of gold mining.
Our bottom up analysis shows that ~50% of production costs of the average gold miner are closely linked to energy prices.” I
The conclusion is “ 1% change in longer-dated energy prices impacts gold prices by about 0.5%.”. This hasn’t happened yet or gold. Oil is up 60% on the year, gold should be up 30% to compensate for increased costs but it isn’t, it is down 5%, of course in real term over 10%. Hence higher costs not compensated by higher price and much lower profits and dividends. At thes oil prices we need gold at 2400 according to this article, here is hoping….also interesting Merryn Somerset Webb in FT today again on oil and inflation. It is why the aisc metric is to me far more important than any other, is currently very high and waiting to see if Horgan can really get it down where it was, Mistress Market doesn’t really thing so hence our price imho
Tina Turner sold hers in October 2021 and Bruce Springsteen sold his in December 21
Tina got $50m but Bruce $500m
Although there can possibly be differences in the contract details surly Bruce did a lot better than Tina, then I suppose this raises the question how much is enough.
Bruce has a Christmas song (Santa-clause is coming to town) that will go on producing revs on an annual basis eternally.
Still if Tina was my mammy I wouldn’t want to see her being out done even though she’s in her 80’s and not much need now for millions except to leave it to her offspring.
Was Mama robbed or was it Sony?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/graisondangor/2021/10/06/tina-turner-sells-song-catalog-for-estimated-50-million/amp/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomnunan/2021/12/16/bruce-springsteen-sells-music-catalog-to-sony-for-500-million-are-career-songbooks-hollywoods-next-goldmine/amp/
Have you seriously descended into laughing at fellow posters and mocking them for what you perceive to be misfortune? I would say grow up but you are likely well aged and should have some wisdom to show - but apparently not. If you have nothing but disdain and mockery for this forum, please disappear.
"The firm added that there are further upside drivers yet to be modelled, such as the emergence of "bonanza" high grade structures within its open pit and underground."
Ha Ha no surprise from you .who got tapped. with according to you 500000 shares.
One day in the future ,you may be happier.
Thanks Cowichan for the useful information as ever. Many members of this board are respectful both of those who have pointed out every reason the share should rise over the last 18 months under the wondrous new management, and those who try to explain why they think it hasn’t and won’t. I find both immensely useful as markets are made by balancing those who think a share will rise and buy, with those who think the opposite. It would be great if some less respectful members could be less defensive and understand criticism and looking out for and pointing out the downsides as well as upsides is a vital part of both management and investing - one reason I don’t appreciate management (not ours) who only try to talk up a share and usually get caught out. Sadly there seems even less honesty in mining than some other industries, especially those where we consume or see the product, so it is up to knowledgable people here to do their best to hold management to account as well as praising them, and thank you all so much . Have a lovely weekend after a relatively nice finish for us this week.