Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

Can anyone tell when Centamin’s next market update is.
I have searched their website but can’t find it, it’s happened before, it’s there but hell if I can see it.

Thanks in advance.

European equities recovered in premarket trade on Tuesday after posting losses at the close yesterday. Market participants were closely watching the latest developments in the trade and the freshest economic indicators.

The United States and China seemed to have come to another standstill in trade negotiations, with a report from yesterday suggesting that a dominant sentiment regarding trade in Beijing is pessimistic as Washington seems no to be willing to reverse levies on Chinese goods.

On the data front, investors will be in for the latest figures on the EU construction output.

The DAX in Germany rose 0.18% at 7:49 am CET, while the FTSE 100 gained 0.19% a minute later. In France, the CAC 40 advanced 0.09% at 7:51.

The pound was 0.10% higher versus the dollar, going for 1.29631 at 7:52 am CET, while the EU's single currency traded flat against the greenback, selling for 1.10784 at the same time.

Breaking the News / GG

Hi Prof, I can well understand your reservations after the way that "Pardey" seems to have string us along!

Supercharge, Tibbs, Rebess,

Thanks for all taking the time to post your views in answer to my question.
I hope that you are right and that I am being unnecessarily cautious. I am just worried by the habit in the past few years of missing numbers substantially. It is a very big ask of Q4 to get to 490k for full year although, as someone pointed out a few weeks ago on this board, not unprecedented.

Good luck to all,
Prof

Hi Prof
It'll be interesting to see how comms are handled covering the last qtr, Q4. - The new discipline for 2019 reporting was to maintain silence until the official quarterlies announcements. - However, in Q3, they broke with this through the unofficial method of leaking. - Having maintained guidance toward lower-end of forecast (490k), unless they issue an official profit warning, linked to a shortfall in output, we must assume they are not misleading us all again. - The question is, do you trust them? - Given their track-record, it's a big question and one that you rightly raise.

A good indication that the 50,000oz will be hit for Oct and that production prospects have improved for the future!

Good spot Cowichan. This must help us here.
Plus only just now did the President of the US has issued a tweet he has met up with Jerome Powell and discussed the price of the USD and his feeling on lowering the US rates.
The US gov. is giving the Fed the license to lower rates and this will help the price of the Gold.
I must admit I like it when Mr T starts tweeting and he is back off his break. I am sure he is a Gold mining shareholder. I also cannot see the price of Gold diving instead I also cannot see the Chinese wanting to rush into a full scale deal with the US. The fact Mr T wants to lower the price of the USD makes me feel he needs help which is more then he is getting from China. I see also no reason for CEY not to have met already what they have set out as if they had encountered problems we would have had a release by now. I have a feeling production has either met or improved on what the doomsters are saying but I may be wrong but if it was a dramatic change for the worse we would have heard something by now - In my opinion.
Gold chart today is showing Gold up to USD1473 and rising quite fast. -happy days.

My Thoughts: There has been a flurry of talk coming from Naguib Sawiris lately on his renewed interest in investing in Egypt — specifically the gold mining sector. Now there is a new angle to his talk, the Egyptian Wealth Fund (THARAA) supplying capital to develop gold mining in Egypt.

----------------------------------->>>

Naguib Sawiris, Chairman of Orascom Investment Holding Company (OCI), has revealed an anticipated investment appetite to seize a large number of investment opportunities that will be offered through the sovereign fund in a wide range of sectors led by mining.

Sawiris added: "Of course, I am targeting the participation of the sovereign fund in the mining project in the field of gold exploration, provided that no interference in management, ie, as a financial partner only."

He stressed that the mining sector tops the order of investment priorities with the sovereign fund...
Sawiris owns one of the world's largest mining and gold exploration companies...

https://hapijournal.com/2019/11/17/%d9%86%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%a8-%d8%b3%d8%a7%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%b3-%d9%85%d9%86%d9%81%d8%aa%d8%ad-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d9%85%d8%b4%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b5%d9%86%d8%af%d9%88%d9%82-%d8%a7/

------------------------------------------>>>
some background on Egypt's new wealth fund THARAA:

The strategy: THARAA will operate through three types of partnerships. The first will see it partner with private-sector investors in specific industries. The second will see it partner with other sovereign wealth funds, while the third will see it partner with the private sector on specific projects through PPP, JVs and other sub-funds, Soliman said. The fund’s strategy will see it follow a private equity-style model of investing, he added, so we can expect a flurry of M&A coming from the fund. The model will see THARAA offer stakes of variable sizes in companies and projects across industries, suggesting that the fund does not plan to hold majority stakes in all of its projects.

https://enterprise.press/stories/2019/11/13/our-exclusive-talk-with-ayman-soliman-ceo-of-tharaa-egypts-new-sovereign-wealth-fund-6236/

Hi Supercharger,
I would be interested in understanding why you feel 'we are pretty safe here in this share for the time being'.
I agree that the Van Eck increase by 1% is good and that gold is likely to pick up Dec or Jan and stay strong in 2020. My biggest short term concern is that sometime this side of Christmas we get a production update that confirms that Q4 production was not good enough to get the full year to the bottom end of guidance (490k) and that this causes a further sell off. Do you not see this as a risk?
Thanks for your thoughts.
Best wishes,
Prof

Looks like Razor they did know something as Gold now moving back up today quite nicely. It looks like as you say we are pretty safe here for in this share for the time being, so not the worries as with other shares.

Hi Razor agree with you they now own 11% and this is a very positive move. Even 1% extra is a lot of money here (well more than I can afford anyway), ha.ha.
What I like is actually the fact they are not stupid and they control the GDX and set up the ETF's register. They know something about their Gold market. This as you say underpinned our investment here and they see CEY as a good opportunity. They mush also see demand for ETF's increasing and the prospect of Gold prices rising. This will happen in my opinion especially if any US -China deal collapses, or gets postponed which with the US elections next year most suspect is highly likely. Good luck and ATB.

The market already knew Van Eck owned 10.04% of Centamin, the notification told that he/they now own another 1.03% bringing their total ownership to 11.07. To be honest I do like the idea of any investment house owning that strong a percentage as it takes the fear out of ownership in general, but the overall reason there’s no one excited about the notification is it’s merely a 1.03 adjustment... good that it’s an increase and not a sell.

I was notified of Van Eck taking a major interest over 11% in Centamin this morning and so I am very surprised we are slightly down. We should be flying. Van Eck were the firm that set up the US ETFs index see link to an article I found. Certainly worth having on here they also run the GDX :-
GDX: Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF
FACEBOOK
TWITTER
LINKEDIN
BY INVESTOPEDIA Updated Jun 25, 2019
The Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSEARCA: GDX) exchange-traded fund (ETF) is the most liquid vehicle for investors and traders to gain exposure to gold miners. The ETF was established in 2006 by Van Eck Global in the midst of gold's bull market as securities were created to satiate the appetite of precious metals investors.
Since its inception, GDX is down 55%. Gold is up 81% over the same time period. This is unusual, given that gold miners' revenues and earnings are tied to gold prices. However, the divergence is due to gold miners' management teams cutting production just as prices rose and expanding operations just as gold prices peaked. This mismanagement has led to frustration for many gold miner bulls.
GDX tracks the performance of the NYSE ARCA Gold Miners Index. Its holdings include most major gold miners listed in the United States and Canada. Some of the largest holdings of the ETF are Goldcorp (GG), Barrick Gold (ABX), Newmont Mining (NEM), Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV), Newcrest Mining (NCM), Silver Wheaton Corp. (SLW) and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM). The index is market cap-weighted, meaning that larger companies are given more representation.
Characteristics
GDX is managed by Van Eck Global, which makes adjustments to holdings based on changes in the NYSE ARCA Gold Miners Index. GDX sports a very low expense ratio of 0.53%. Additionally, the stock trades on the New York Stock Exchange. In recent years, public interest has spiked in gold and gold miners due to concerns surrounding monetary policy. Commensurate with this increased interest, volume has steadily climbed higher.

Suitability and Recommendation
GDX is particularly risky. Investors have to be mindful of gold prices as well as the mining industry. As its lifetime performance shows, a rising gold price does not necessarily mean that GDX will also rise. However, a falling gold price certainly ensures a decline in GDX. However, in the right environment, GDX can deliver spectacular returns for investors. From October 2008 to May 2011, GDX rose nearly 300% as gold climbed 150% over the same time period.
For these reasons, GDX is considered speculative and is appropriate for sophisticated investors who are comfortable with the risk. The ultimate driver of GDX's price is earnings from gold miners. In the short term, the largest variable affecting earnings is the price of gold. Determining the price of gold is notoriously difficult due to its lack of cash flow and emotionally driven buying and selling.

Equities in Europe were set for a muted start of the week as stock markets remained largely attuned to the latest development in global politics.

The US-China trade talks continued to dominate investor sentiment with the Chinese Xinhua news agency reporting over the weekend that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He had "constructive discussions" with the US side on mutual concerns regarding the phase-one trade accord?. Reportedly, the phone call was made at the initiative of the US.

Meanwhile, the Brexit drama and parliamentary election campaign remained a strong point of focus in Europe, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the UK insisting there will be no need to extend the transition period following Britain's departure from the EU beyond the end of next year.

On the data and earnings front, no major releases were scheduled for the day.

In Britain, the FTSE 100 traded flat at 7:56 am ET. The DAX and CAC 40 fell 0.07% and 0.13%, respectively, at the same time.

The cable gained 0.19%, with the pound buying $1.29287 at 7:57 am ET, while the euro advanced 0.07% against the US dollar going for $1.10616 at the same time.

Breaking the News / GG

US losses from Trump’s China trade war will never be recovered, shipping data tells us
President Trump announced a month ago that his administration had clinched a trade deal with China. Well, actually, the first in a series of deals, which the White House now refers to as “phase one.”

Since then, countless declarations of “winning,” but agreeing to a deal only “if the terms are right,” have added to the year and half long conflicting cacophony of rhetoric about the content of any trade agreement with China.

Bottom line? The constant bluster has blurred the reality of what a deal would even accomplish, if anything at all. The only way to shovel away the pile of broken promises and contradictory comments is to analyze the flow of maritime trade.

Why? With 90% of all items in a house transported over water, it is the purest form of showing supply and demand. The flow of trade is agnostic. It moves regardless of who is “winning” or “losing.”
?The impact of this trade war and the opportunities lost by American businesses both large and small can not only be tracked by the public earnings reports, but through American exports.

And a deal, no matter what is agreed on, would never make up for the losses sustained during this trade war, according to calculations based on the decrease in volumes of containers, cargo and tankers that traveled into U.S. ports.

Dropping export volume

For a perspective on the losses, look no further than the Port of Los Angeles, the largest port in the country. U.S. exports to China from the bustling harbor decreased for 12 consecutive months. It suffered a 19.1% drop in export volume when comparing October 2019 with the same month in 2018.

China’s retaliatory tariffs hit 96.6% of the purchases of U.S. exports that traveled through the L.A. port complex, with a price tag of $19.9 billion.

Add on the additional retaliatory tariffs from the other countries the U.S. is sparring with on trade, and that brings the total of impacted export cargo to $20.2 billion, or 28.8% of all export value through the L.A. port system. Considering 95% of the world’s consumers are outside of the U.S., the tariffs imposed on American goods have priced them out of the global marketplace.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/13/trumps-china-trade-war-losses-will-never-be-recovered-shipping-data-tells-us.html

The two sides did make some progress in the bitter trade war recently. In early October, Trump said the two nations have agreed to work up a “phase one” trade deal that includes a pause in tariff escalation and more agriculture buying from China. However, China is insisting on a removal of the existing duties in place as part of the deal, which Trump said he had not approved.

Nonetheless, the optimism has lifted the market to record highs. Major stock averages — the S&P 500, Dow and the Nasdaq Composite — all scored new records in the past couple of weeks. Investors have learned to become more skeptical of the upbeat tone from the Trump administration after a fruitless battle of 18 months, but given the popularity of algorithmic trading, the market has become highly sensitive to every headline.

“We’re finally ‘close’ to a trade deal with China … according to several senior members of the Trump administration!!!! Wait a minute, wasn’t what they said a week ago … two weeks ago … three weeks ago … etc.? In fact, isn’t that what they said about a much bigger deal back in late April???” Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said in a note on Friday.

“Actually, with the impact of today’s algos, it wouldn’t surprise us if we got an initial pop in the stock market, but we seriously question the sustainability of that kind of rally,” Maley added.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/15/market-listens-when-officials-repeatedly-tout-progress-on-china-trade.html

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surges to a new all-time high on Friday after White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow says the U.S. and China are “getting close” to reaching a trade deal.
Kudlow has signaled encouraging progress on China trade numerous times this year, but the talks have led to nothing concrete so far.
Earlier this year, Kudlow claimed trade talks made “fantastic” progress, adding the two countries will “get closer” to a deal.
In October, Kudlow predicted there could be some “positive surprises” out of the most recent round of China trade talks and said there’s a “lot of momentum” to finish a trade deal.
It works like a charm — every time the Trump administration touts positive development on trade with China, stocks spike.
The stock market has moved on virtually every U.S.-China trade headline for nearly two years. Kudlow, in particular, has signalled encouraging progress on China trade numerous times this year, spurring investors to be optimistic only to watch the two sides take one step forward, two steps back. The trade talks have led to nothing concrete so far.
On Feb. 28, Kudlow claimed trade talks made “fantastic” progress.
On April 3, Kudlow said “good headway” was made, adding the U.S. and China will “get closer” to a deal as talks resume.
On Oct. 4, Kudlow predicted there could be some “positive surprises” out of the most recent round of China trade talks.
On Oct. 11, Trump said the U.S. has come to a substantial phase one deal with China.
On Oct. 17, Kudlow said there’s a “lot of momentum” to finish a trade deal.
On Oct. 18, Trump said he hopes U.S.-China trade deal will be signed by mid-November.
On Oct. 21, Trump said the U.S.-China trade deal is coming along “very well.”
On Nov. 8, Trump said the U.S. and China are close to an agreement.
On Nov. 14, Kudlow said the two countries were “getting close” to reaching a trade deal.

You raise a very valid point Cowichan!
Thank you for posting thus article.

This is excellent news Cowichan, especially for Centamin!

Something to keep in mind when assessing Centamin's 'quiet' strategy in West Africa — have a look at page 17 on the following presentation by Mako Gold. You'll notice how eager junior explorers are to obtain exploration permits right alongside major discoveries i.e. Barrick's Tongon mine concession flanked by Orca & Mako - two predatory species...

Keeping a low profile - as I believe Centamin has done in Burkina Faso - prevents unnecessary competition for assets.

https://www.makogold.com.au/uploads/7/9/1/8/79181888/2019.10.30_mako_gold-imarc_presentation-oct-2019.pdf

(MENAFN - Daily News Egypt) Head of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce in Egypt Fayez Ezz El-Din said that Canadian companies intend to establish a gold purification plant with investments of $70m.

He told Daily News Egypt that the recent passage of the mineral wealth law is encouraging international mining companies to invest in Egypt, especially Canadian companies, the most important investors in the sector.

Gold is being purified from 67% to 99.9% before entering the market.

Ezz El-Din pointed out that the plant, which will be established in two years, will work to purify gold not only in Egypt, but also in several African countries so Egypt may become a centre for the purification of crude gold.

https://menafn.com/1099278886/Canadian-companies-intend-to-establish-a-gold-purification-plant-in-Egypt-with-an-investment-of-70m

USA to swap chickens with China!
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow signaled talks over the first phase of an agreement with China were coming down to the final stages and said the two sides in close contact. On Thursday, China also lifted a ban on American poultry that began in 2015, after the USDA made a similar decision to allow Chinese poultry into the U.S!

Trump could have a hard time selling the deal as a success unless China agrees to address at least some of the concerns about forced technology transfer that prompted him to impose duties in the first place. “If they get nothing on forced technology transfer, that would be a major loss for the president,” the person said.https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-trade/2019/11/14/china-drives-hard-bargain-for-skinny-trade-deal-782355

Another deal?
Passage of spending bill, Nafta replacement complicated by impeachment
A fight over President Donald Trump’s demands for up to $8 billion in new funding for his U.S.-Mexico border fence project is largely responsible for an impasse on the huge spending package, which would implement the details of this summer’s hard-won budget accord.

The politically explosive impeachment hearing and the possibility of impeachment and a trial aren’t making the jobs of dealmakers like Lowey any easier. It’s yet another layer of complications for senior lawmakers pressing not just for an agreement on agency budgets; it’s also complicating action on a long-sought rewrite of the North American trade rules.

The coming weeks could still be the last, best opportunity for lawmakers to wrap up their work on the budget and the trade deal, even as stakeholders admit the timetable could easily slip amid foot-dragging and partisan flare-ups.

As the House returns from a quick break, the sole piece of must-do business before Thanksgiving is to pass a governmentwide stopgap spending bill to avert the second government shutdown within a year
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/congress-agrees-on-deal-to-avert-government-shutdown-through-dec-20-2019-11-12

European stocks jumped in premarket trading on Friday on fresh hopes the United States and China will resolve their ongoing trade dispute after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow noted the two sides are "getting close" to an agreement. On the data front, investors will be awaiting inflation and trade balance figures from the Eurozone schedule for release later in the day.

The FTSE 100 rose 0.52% at 7:37 am CET, the DAX climbed 0.64% at 7:38 am CET and the CAC 40 added 0.54% at 7:33 am CET. The euro and the pound both traded flat against the dollar to sell for 1.10222 and 1.28790, respectively, at 7:40 am CET.

Breaking the News / NP