We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Here the insights of John Sweeney.
John Sweeney's latest book Killer in the Kremlin explores Vladimir Putin's career, from KGB agent to becoming Russia's president.
Discussing extract of the book, Sweeney said:
"Putin is not mad in the clinical psychiatric sense," and the Russian withdrawal from the battle of Kyiv is evidence of that.
He added that Putin is "much weaker than we think he is."
Detailing how Putin's face had changed since he met him following the shooting down of MH17, Sweeney said that the defeat of the Russian army this winter or spring "will have a catastrophic effect" on Russia's president.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxAAIhy4B5Y
?? Listen now - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio
A Definateve Feasibilite Study will be the start or end of any further investment.
I can also see the reason for a West African Mine having invested so much up to now, by previos mis management I should add.
Simply if something out of the ordinary happened in Egypt. Lord forbid.
And yes Egypt at and around Sukari is very promising and more controllable/local, if management have finally got their Act toghether. Its about time, instead of their arses in comfy leather easy chairs in Jersey.
Gold will fly if the US comply with Basel 3, if is the question, around the end of this year if not a little sooner.
There is a lot of Paper to back up,at least partially.
The Americans seem to make rules and break them when it suits.
We will soon see,
GLA.
Im sure Martin Horgan knows a lot more about mining than I do Mr T--------but I totally get what you are on about sorting out Sukari rather than looking elsewhere. We could get lucky and get another mine working elsewhere, but I think with the size of Sukari--the full 160 km and not the 3km, there is hell of a lot to go at there.
Im hoping that things do start improving soon and a bigger divi is reinstated. Obviously if the POG starts going up, this would help increase profits.
I still struggle to comprehend how POG has not started to climb sharply, given the current state of the country, economic forecasts and inflation.
It is nice to see some balanced discussion Gnome unfortunately it is generally disregarded, derided of both as the major vested interests have too much sway.
The US not happy with just trying to provoke Russia are now doubling down & trying to provoke China in a similar manner using Taiwan as their proxy.
Chine will not respond in the same fashion as Russia, they act from a much stronger position, they will respond diplomatically & importantly economically.
This augers well for the price of gold, it is only a matter of time before China reveals it’s true reserves & moves to provide a real alternative to the US dollar dominance which, whilst not that good for the world in general, will be good for those who maintain an exposure to gold.
My biggest concern is that China has significant & strong relationships with Egypt & that has the potential to severely impact western companies operating in Egypt.
We know what China are doing in Africa, from their influence they can take control of assets already being developed by other parties with little or no comebacks. I recently experienced this through Prospect Resources, whilst we got bought out of the Arcadia lithium project & shareholders did well, we got a fraction of the value of the project had PSC been allowed to develop it. My understanding is PSC we’re told either sell out at a reasonable (but low) value or the project will be taken from you!
China’s policy of non-interference in other countries domestic affairs is well liked amongst developing nations & gives them a big advantage over the US when it comes to forging & strengthening alliances.
I definitely see good times ahead for the gold price but one of the factors leading to this may well create operational difficulties for CEY.
I will continue to stay the course as I have a high degree of confidence in the gold contained in our areas, I just wish they would gat their act together & get the gold out of the ground so I can obtain a reasonable exit price before someone decides to take it from us.
The current state of the world is certainly leading to some interesting times whether that is a curse or a blessing remains to be seen :)
From May 2021 although POG has dropped since then!
Just remember that PEA studies have a very positive bias and the NPV numbers will probably come down once feasibility studies have been completed.
A grade of 1.13 g/t for most of the Doropo deposit is not very high grade for African projects with their high cost structure.
Thank you Mr Gnome certainly is very relevant and thought provoking considering the state of things today!
The projects will be exciting if they ever get to produce anY gold at a profit, at present all they are is more commitment to spend many millions of borrowed money with only estimated predictions of a return some time when!
Will these projects rend up just like Batie West?
For Pity's sake Centamin get on with restoring Sukari production at reduced AiSC, all we have as yet is a big bill and promises!
Well fond Cowichan,
Certainly justify all the question you have been asking Centamin on social media, I recall Dasut also being puzzled about the BOD reasoning for dumping Batie West.
Someone I know also submitted questions to Investor Relations asking for reasoning for the abandonment of the Batie West project considering the huge cost for now no return!
As I previously stated why did the Chief Finance Director Ross Jerrard and other responsible company officers not identify this project as not fitting the company criteria sooner,
It is Ross Jerrard's responsibility to identify and challenge corporate risks, well this certainly was considering the cost and potential, now actual loss for non completion!
Nail on the head about the Q&A from Q2 call, certainly was basic stuff you can figure out oneself from reading the material provided.
Pretty sure they are submitted in advance so no surprises come the call in.
Agree Total BS.!
You are also aware of my view on these "Corporate Brokers", certainly seem to be in the pockets of the management, no wonder they don't notice piles of waste on site visits!
It was apparent from the conversation between one of the analysts and Martin Horgan that they engage in the exchange of information , this may all be innocent of course, but never the less it does give the wrong impression as though as though we share holders are being excluded!
Well done Cowichan, hope you ask some questions on Twitter
There you go Paul, a really heartening story to listen to and think about as you enjoy your garden!
Hannah Bourne-Taylor has always been bird obsessed. So when she came across an abandoned baby finch, at risk of being eaten by cobras, instinct kicked in and she rescued it. They developed an incredible bond, with the bird even nesting in her hair. At the time, Hannah had been struggling with extreme anxiety and debilitating obsessive compulsive disorder. Raising the finch would be transformative for her.
Hannah’s written a book about her experience called Fledgling.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct352y
Good Morning Paul,
I think the man you are thinking of is Harry Michael CEO a man of integrity and very knowledgeable of the gold mining industry, thus far easily the best CEO the company has EVER had, a great loss for share holders too because after Harry's demise the management that followed didn't possess the same personal and professional attributes and so began the decade of erratic performance, bullsh*t and spin for which we are now paying a heavy price!
See below-
The chief executive officer of gold mining firm Centamin Egypt has died suddenly, the firm said. by: moneyweek
17 Nov 2011
The chief executive officer of gold mining firm Centamin Egypt has died suddenly, the firm said."It is with great sorrow that the board of Centamin Egypt announces the sudden and tragic passing away today of Harry Michael," the company announced.
Josef El-Raghy, the Chairman of Centamin, will be assuming the additional role of chief executive officer until further notice.
The share price fell 2.93% to 102.6p by 14:11.
https://moneyweek.com/22330/centamin-ceo-has-died-111117-1419-76689
Also Paul
Try not be too hard on yourself about investing in Centamin, in any choice of investment just like most of us you can only go on the information available at the time , I accept that the information I passed on in good faith has proven to be unreliable and those those that offered it to me feel just as bad, one feels particularly bad because several of his friends who invested retirement payouts are now down on their holdings, but there you go we all did what we did because we hope that other others hold the same values as we do and so we take their word in good faith and that's the right thing to do, unfortunately those we trusted didn't share the same values and shafted us leaving us to feel the pain of disappointment and pay the price!
But that said the POG is bound to improve and Marin Horgan does already have a proven track record so he should be able to turn Centamin around, unfortunately already 10 years have been wasted running the Sukari pyramid scheme, rather than a properly functioning gold mine , so this turnaround will be very expensive and will take time!
I must admit though I still have serious reservations about in whose best interest some on the Centamin board are acting in!
See Cowichans post!
Wishing our all our Ivorian colleagues, partners, host communities and friends a Happy Independence Day. Thank you for your continued support as we advance our exciting gold exploration projects in Côte d'Ivoire. #independanceday #cotedivoire
https://twitter.com/centaminplc/status/1556191234951102465?s=21&t=bAMuoKMrA_KHtbxFcjgQZQ
Andrew Loomes
Chief Mine Surveyor at Northern Star Resources Limited
His previous position:
Chief Mine Surveyor
SUKARI GOLD MINES
Jan 2014 - Jan 2021 · 7 yrs 1 mo
https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-loomes-1624b1136/
----------------------------->>>>
The post he agrees with:
Is Centamin PLC's Batie West gold resource in Burkina Faso still for sale? Any interested buyers? Or will Centamin shareholders suffer yet another $100+ million dollar loss in Burkina Faso like Wadaradoo & Napelapera? If it's a lost resource then it's high time some new directors come on board - directors who take responsibility and are capable of resolving issues instead of losing valuable resources and wasting shareholder capital. Barrick Gold Corporation B2Gold Corp. Endeavour Mining Orezone Gold Corporation West African Resources Martin Horgan Ross Jerrard Catharine Farrow Sally Eyre John Singleton Craig Murray Hennie Faul Agnico Eagle Mines Limited BNN Bloomberg Women In Mining UK (WIM UK) Kitco Metals Inc. Agnico Eagle Mines Limited Newcrest Mining Wheaton Precious Metals https://lnkd.in/gqbFjmPr
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_centamin-plc-hails-reinvestment-programme-activity-6961346895143206912-_85Q
That says something...
So why no update as to the state of divestiture from management ? Has the resource already reverted back to the state - as is 'normal course' according to Mr Horgan?
To be fair it wasn't Mr Horgan's mismanagement that got shareholders in this pickle.
The question is - how interested is he or any other director on extracting value from Batie West? It's their job - and it's not an insignificant spend or resource to flush down the potty.
Hilarious all the analyst Q&A from Q2 call were basic stuff you can figure out oneself from reading the material provided. Pretty sure they are submitted in advance so no surprises come the call in. Total BS.
Balanced discussion on the Ukraine..7 years ago...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pUj3Vqptx8
Klein predicts US$2-US$3,000/oz gold price for this time next year
Is a wave of merger and acquisition activity coming in the ASX and anywhere else for tat matter, gold space?
Barry Fitzgerald reckons so...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ql4dF7wHPM
The gold sector is about to receive a big boost from a surging price, if Evolution (ASX:EVN) boss Jake Klein’s prediction of between US$2,000-US$3,000/oz by mid-2023 is correct.
“If Klein’s view is shared by others in the industry, standby for a wave of merger and acquisition activity where the bigger companies move on the developers and explorers with 1m-plus ounce gold resources with upside,” Fitzgerald says.
“The developers and developers are looking vulnerable to low-ball bids as they have to enjoy much of a recovery from their smashed levels from the March gold price fall, notwithstanding the gold price rally since.”
Jan 2022 Time frame before Centamin gets at that higher grade ore?
Liberum actually summed it up pretty well (although their accuracy leaves something to be desired!).
Re the underground operations they wrote:
"However, we feel reasonably confident that the UG Expansion Study will have a positive outcome that is similar to, or better than, that currently presented by Centamin. There is also the mouth-watering prospect of bonanza structures being brought into the mine plan: we see the Bast structure turbocharging 2023 production, followed by the 5105 structure a year or two later."
Re the open pit - from the LOA2 review, Centamin stated that the costs of the increased stripping will be more than offset by the improvement in grade from the open pit. However, and as per slide 16 from the presentation on 8.12.21, the head grade from the O/P will of course fall due to the fact of the stripping - which is over a 4 year period (there is a lot of waste rock being mined!) - however the feed into the processing plant remains constant for the next few years (see below).
This is NOT factoring in any production from the bonanza grades identified (and commented on by Liberum), but is a base case and part of the whole process of being consistent in producing 450-500koz per annum.
Important to note , this accelerated stripping is mainly to provide flexibility for future years (as you know, it was under stripped in previous years), which feeds into the strategy to be consistent in gold production!
So any assumption grades remain low for the next 4 years is not correct and will become apparent .
Opinion of Dasut one of this groups very experienced members
I am not sure that there is an African cost structure given the number of countries on the African continent having worked in 6 of the countries there are quite large differences and considerable political risk variations.
Quick difference Burkina more expensive than Ghana and Ivory Coast purely based on logistics of land locked and easy access to ports.
I would love to know why Batie is non core, is it political risk, physical risk is it cost prohibitive suggest a combination of all in addition to a difficult ore structure, not sure if I have seen a detailed justification relating to Batie being non core.
There are numerous mines in West Africa long standing that are profitable and if Doropo and ABC are anything like projects that I visited on numerous occasions in Ghana and have free dig start ups of oxide ores then I see both resources as benefiting Centamin 's bottom line.
Opinion to Centamin Jan 2022
He is spot on re the stripping and the ore : waste ratio – the higher the proportion of ore, the more ounces are produced.
Longer haulage distances are negligible to be frank – the upside currently remains in the existing open-pit shell and the deeper prospects in the underground. As to what happens post the stripping campaign with Capital’s fleet I do not know.
Centamin may want to buy these back off them – Centamin do a lot of their own stripping and haulage afterall, and having a younger fleet will reduce maintenance costs etc.
If there are discoveries within proximity to the Sukari plant (either in the Sukari license or in their new licenses) they will need to have a bigger mining fleet anyway.
Although any decision on this fleet is some way off as there is still another 3-4 years of high stripping to do.
From Kees Dekker mining analyst Jan 2022
In my experience here is an extra cost working in African countries.
The productivity there is lower than elsewhere. In discussions with a director of SRK I told him that I do not subscribe to many unit mining cost estimates used for African countries in the economic assessment in technical reports. He confirmed to me that a SRK study had come up with an average unit rate of US$3.5/t mined for Africa. This includes drilling and blasting. I estimate for free dig material this should be some US$1/t lower. About Batie, it is non-core in my mind because the very low grade makes it unattractive given the risks associated with a project in Africa and a political high-risk country at that. Doropo is better, but still not fantastic. No wonder they downgraded Batie.
Kees
My friend who is in regular contact with Centamin put Kees opinion to them
As Kees pointed out, Centamin is “getting there”, and that is shown by the confidence in guidance for this year being 430-460,000oz, though with higher costs because of inflation and the need for more investment (solar plant, paste plant, underground development, etc etc). Centamin has reduced significantly the volatility of production levels in the last 18 months in particular, whilst investing in Sukari’s ability to produce sustainable and low cost ounces for the next decade or so.
Thanks Sotolo-------Im at the age where i sometimes doubt my memory. It is actually usually very good except when I go in the garden and spend more time looking for my gloves or trowel than I do actually gardening!
I think with being here so long, things tend to go round and maybe even forgotten about. I remember there was a Joseph and a Josef at Centamin and one was supposed to be an honourable man. Ive not a clue who was who!
I know Centamin has had a bl--dy big fall from its peak and even in the last year or so.
I think there was t4g who was moaning about the share price about 9 months ago and went into Boo hoo at £1.05.
Im down on my investment in Centamin but with the divis over the years probably in front if that make sense? I've reinvested the divis and due the the divis and low share price have increased my holding a bit--- but it is still only a tiny fraction of yours.
Have a good weekend.
Hi Tibbs, I appreciate the longer-term shareholders here have been put through significant stress and financial loss as Pardey made a huge mess in the pit. About the only good thing I can see is that he left centamin with a quarter billion dollar cash pile but that's about what it's going to take to put things right. I've only been a shareholder for about 18 months so it's easy for me to look to the future rather than the past. Respect to you for hanging in through thick and thin. Re Doropo on the face of it it looks good - 5m oz inferred - lots of drilling about to convert many of those ozs to indicated which ought to give another boost to the SP. Cote D'Ivoire reasonably stable. Looks good but I'm not a miner and have no experience in Africa so am completely reliant on Centamin/Horgan's judgement on that call. The rewards are certainly worth going for but what are the risks?
Hi Clued,
Good to hear from you,
A friend of mine has expressed both verbally to IR and in writing to Martin Horgan and the Centamin BOD that it would be a demonstration of confidence in their new company strategy to ask Kees Dekker the mining analyst to accept a position in an advisory capacity to the BOD .
Both the Kees Dekker 2015 & 2018 Seeking Alpha articles raised serious concerns about the way Sukari mining operations were being managed and although denied at the time by Andrew Pardey subsequent events have proven Kees to have been remarkably accurate in his findings and predictions.
Were it possible an appointment of an advisor such as Kees must surely demonstrate great confidence on behalf of the company in its forward strategy and would likely be very well received by the market and existing and potential investors.
Hi Razor's,
I hope so too, Martin seems a decent chap, he certainly doesn't need to prove his professional ability.
What is really annoying, frustrating is that the concerns abut Sukari were flashed up in 2015 and these were denied by Pardey and like it or not Ross Jerrard chief finance officer, Darren Le Masurier company Secretary and other exec and non exec Jersey BOD and external auditors who were all responsible for financial risk management and could, and should have questioned if the custom and practice of the day to day operation of Sukari was likely to be a potential risk to the future viability the company, whatever actions they took, the bad practice continued until the concerns were again flagged up in 2018,
If you recall 2018 was the year 3 weeks after Pardey and the former Egyptian policeman, then mine general manager were flagging up 600,000 ozs that Pardey then issued an RNS that they had hit unexpected low grades in the open pit ( they were known about in 2015) and Oh yes the sole LHDR had self destructed and somebody forgot to order spares!
What did the Ross Jerrard and the rest of the Jerasey BOD do , bugger all really, the high grading carried on until the open pit narrowly avoided disappearing under a pile waste ore!
In the meantime whilst the Sukari "Pyramid scheme had been had been run to a stand still by unnecessary risk risk taking the BOD had allowed the squandering of hundreds of millions of company cash reserves on what has amounted to be hole drilling for no return!
So just what were the analyst's doing whilst this in some respects very clever Sukari sham and in other respects chaotically or ill managed West African portfolio of undelivered promises ?
Well the analyst certainly weren't asking the right questions as far as we share holders are concerned, but then they are rarely do, because they are in the main corporate analysts!
A friend of mine was so frustrated with being ignored by Pardey they contacted a couple of the corporate analysts and asked them why they hadn't raised certain questions, or noticed the past bad mining practice at Sukari, my friend got a call a few days later from Buchanan claiming that an RBC analyst had complained that they were being a nuisance !
So its results we share holders deserve now, certainly not more empty promises, reduced dividend and the taking on of debt for projects that may only be marginally profitable, if at all!
Possibly one the most annoying aspects of this isn't the wasted money, its the wasted time!
Very interesting mrtibbles. What a corrupt world. Reminds me of an investment, Vatakoula Goldmines, that I lost on many years ago, corruption involved. Personally, I couldn't live the life of a rich hypocritical sociopathic deceiving mining co director without constantly feeling dirty/evil and a fake to the core. These same 'scum' probably appear as great parents, loving partners, community stalwarts, etc...to their colleagues !! Sad b..tards. But yes it does go on and you say in many mining cos !! What I find most concerning is that the Analysts don't uncover most of these deceipts and they are tasked with safeguarding pension and investment funds for millions !! They obviously lack the required knowledge and there's also probably some engineered hiding by the co and even analyst corruption at play, a little like the Germans hiding the reality in 1936 olympics from the visiting countries !!
Thanks again Mrtibbles… the saying “ignorance is bliss” comes to mind when I consider the absolute mess Centamin was in when the news broke about underground movement and here I was blaming the market for over reacting. Seems now the reaction was accurate.
The up side is we’re two years away from the tsunami and well into the recovery cycle.
I have faith in Martin Horgan and even if other management have delivered dodgy performances in the past the fact that MH is now their leader will hopefully encourage them to up their game.
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined once again by Craig Hemke, founder of the TF Metals Report, to discuss the Fed’s refusal to accept the US is slipping into a recession.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhvfVhBOf7c
The two industry allies contemplate the approaching end of the COMEX’s confidence scheme, as investors wake up to widespread spoofing and join the mass exodus to fairer alternatives.
Timestamps
00:00 Start
01:25 Craig Hemke & Kinesis’ “ gold and silver swindle” video soon reach 1M views!
04:35 About post-pandemic stagflation and reaching neutral GDP
08:30 The US in recession, Powell in denial.
10:05 Game of short and long contracts
17:30 Never seen the house this long and the specs this wrongfooted!
21:15 JP Morgan is exiting its silver shorts
25:25 House account of Bank of America had been stopping gold contracts all year long
27:20 COMEX’s hedging mechanism is broken!
31:10 The Confidence Scheme - people are waking up, exiting the space
34:45 EFPs - how many tonnes have exited this month in gold?
38:55 Remember - physical, physical, physical…
41:40 It’s a PSYOP! What is the key to ending this scheme?
44:15 Don't go buying 100 shares of the GLD thinking you own physical gold.
48:25 Where can we find Craig Hemke? Join the community, protect yourself!
Click the Twitter link below and tag who you want our expert analyst to discuss gold with and we'll see what we can do...
https://twitter.com/KinesisMonetary/s...
The Biggest Gold and Silver Swindle of all Time
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALZP8...
Good morning, Razor's,
I apologise for not replying sooner but I was committed to meeting with friends at the local several of whom are also long term Centamin holders, one of whom holds an executive position an international business operating in Egypt and other West African regions, I won't refer to the latter by their real name, but instead as Jim ( I made the mistake in the past of disclosing the real name of a senior member of staff of company in an industry related business, well, I will just say it caused problems for them!).
Jim said he doesn’t encounter many problems running accounts in Egypt/Middle East, but doing business in Western African regions, can be quite different matter.
You will have realised from Cowichan's and others work on behalf of us all that this board is monitored and is also inhabited at times by some who certainly aren't whom they claim to be and those aren't always acting in our best interests.
More years ago, than I care to remember a fellow share holder and Jersey resident had through their quite separate personal business dealings with a now former very senior Centamin executive expressed serious concerns to me that all wasn't quite as it seemed or was being presented at Sukari, well unfortunately the past four years are confirmation of those concerns!
My Jersey friend had become so concerned they sold out in 2018 just after the Kees Dekker report "Get out again whilst the going is good!”) once again flagging up concerns and invested elsewhere
Obviously I made the mistake of thinking surely my friend and Kees didn’t know all the facts, it couldn't be that bad, the analysts that visited the site would have surely picked up on things, the management wouldn't deliberately deceive us, but now we all know things were in fact far worse, not only did Sukari nearly implode, but many millions of company funds were in fact squandered pointlessly on now abandoned projects in West African jurisdictions because of a lack of due diligence or a clear understanding of company project criteria by senior company officers some of whom are still in post!.
Some will say then if you don't believe then sell out and walk away, but then that happens all too often, the directors of far too many mining companies fill their boots having sold pie in the sky promises to their ordinary shareholders whom are treated with disdain and expected to go away quietly.
So let’s see if this is just a hobby for Martin Horgan, (instead of a big train set) or a genuine passion to deliver on his stated aims for Sukari, although I remain very uneasy about what may be just another ill thought through West African money pit (Doropo)
Here is the eye watering cost for digging Sukari out of the crap!
https://www.capdrill.com/media/investors/Announcements/CAPD_Launch-Announcement-RNS_20201202_Final_Website.pdf