The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Thanks gnome - Much appreciate the in-depth reply. - You're the man in Oz and it's useful/helpful to have a local-opinion
Many thanks.
Rebess
worth a look and listen, Charlie Munger ....
a brief history lesson on assets, debt, with a view to the future , by a 90 year old seasoned investor
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5UCmsXpngA
we will need some luck
best
Sorry about the rushed wording (and numbering LOL), but things to ask
>What is the history of Sandstone Gold fields discoveries and mining in the last 50-60 years..do not rely on these guys to tell you, but you can google this sort of info relatively quickly and well
>How are they going to have more success than others ..any new technology, evidence of smarts, or is this another grid drill to you drop exercise.
>How are they trying to predict the existence of grade, continuity of mineralisation
>what are their claimed underground ounces, and how much reports to a minable reserve? People make some great claims in underground resources and kick the can down the road in terms of decalring a minable reserve. Be very careful. unless you are a speculator
My advice is mostly from a long term view..that is they are going to mine what they say they have.
its a tough market at the moment if you are a speculator, and my temptation as a speculator is to sit things out.
Quite happy to buy CEY on weakness events, which are primariliy due to short term fluctations of the gold price, as I know what fluctates up will fluctuate down, but longer term, gold has got to go higher.
There are more regulations coming through, as the regulators have a lot to clean up. I can t see a good argument for trusing the governments or central banks at the moment. Now we have the RBA coming out and saying they are going to keep hiking interest rates at infinitum to fight the inflation demons. It bears as much logic as the interest rates being essentially negative for the last 5 or 6 years, what a joke! In whose iterest was this? What was the real result of this?? From one extreme to another, quite ludicrous, and they get paid handsomely for their profound wisdom!
We have some real wage increase pressures here as a result, but productivty gains are zero to negative. So this does not compute. We will be run by Unions it seems and this is not good for the economy.
Hard to think recession is not staring us in the face
Q: Can Britain’s new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, fix this economic mess? The Bank of England? Anyone?
Max: To a degree, yes. The government is working on a large bailout package to cap the price of energy for businesses and homes. That could stave-off the immediate cost of living crunch and in the short term push down inflation, which is primarily driven by rising energy bills. That could make the predicted coming recession shallower and shorter. However the medium term is cloudier. The bailout combined with tax cuts the new government will implement could keep inflation running at a relatively high-rates. The Bank of England will likely have to continue to raise rates to stamp this down, subduing economic activity over the longer term.
good luck !
good luck !!!
the gnome
Good morning Rebess
Things I picked up on
1. Sizable convertible note sitting on them. I wold need to see the terms of this
2. Significant Resource base
22Mt @ 1.1g/t for 784.3koz Au
Open pit and underground
The style of mineralisation and grade may preclude underground mining, so might be a few "hopeful" ounces in the mix
3. Key future open pit production location
Currently largest open pit resource at Central Sandstone
Potentially opens up access to Two Mile Hill UG...Shillington 2.3Mt @ 1.2g/t Au for 86,500oz
Two Mile Hill 2.1Mt @ 1.1g/t Au for 71koz
Thats NOT A LOT OF OUNCES, and they are resource ounces, what is the strip ration, CONVERSION OF THESE MEAGRE OUNCES TO PROFITABLE OUNCES??!! gold ounces is a key question.
3. Key driver for Sandstone acquisition Big broad intersections
343.9m @ 1.29, 224.0m @ 1.48, 352.8m @ 1.5g/t,...BUT THIS IS DRILLED DOWNDIP !!!!.....
4. CLAIM TO HAVE LITTLE EXPLORATION IS INTERESTING GIVEN SANDSTONE HISTORY. "Gold mining at the Sandstone area stretches back over 100 years. In 1894 a prospector discovered gold about 20 km south of present-day Sandstone and, in 1903, gold was found within a few hundred meters of the town. From 1903 to 1916, 930,000 ounces of gold were mined in town." AND THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF WORK SINCE THEN.
I EXPECT THE LOW HANGING FRUIT HAS BEEN WELL AND TRULY PICKED OVER EXPLORATION WISE. THE EASY MINING OPEN PIT MIGHT BE BOTHERED BY STRIP RATIO AND BE LIMITED IN TERMS OF FREE CASH FLOW. THE CONVERTIBLE NOTE, POSSIBLY MEANS THEY HAVE HAD TO DIG DEEP TO GET COVERING INVESTMENT.
Just a couple of things to watch for. Happy to sit this one out
best
the gnome
Hi gnome
I hope you don't mind my asking/seeking your opinion. - Currently looking at an Oz miner - Aurumin, -Beginning to look interesting. - I've had a small stake in them for a while now. -
http://newsfile.refinitiv.com/getnewsfile/v1/story?guid=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20220906:nASX97j0nX
Appreciate this is the Centamin channel so I hope the rest of you don't mind.- Cheers
Thanks Cowichan
If you looks craefully at high resolution imagery of Egypt int he gold arreas, you will see that there is a quite a lot of "small scale" gold minng going on, using large excavators. Small scale and artisinal miners do not tend to use these, as they lack capital. There seems to be an elemnet of "organisation" in the small scale mining, and I have hear rumour that the Egyptian military maybe involved..but it is 3rd hand info at best
"Small scale mining employs 100 million people world wide. It is poorly misunderstood in many countries by urban decision makers who view it as illegal activity. However, in some countries such as Morocco, Bolivia and South Africa and Sudan, it is actively encouraged by the government. In one region of South Africa, the government issued 400 permits allowing the employment of 3.7 million people from small scale mining with 30 million people depending on it from indirect activities. In 2015 Sudan, south of the border with Egypt reformed its mining laws to include artisanal mining, 198 small scale mining companies registered and employed 1 million people. The wisdom of developing law for artisanal mining has not crossed the border between Sudan and Egypt yet. Egypt has no government policy to encourage small scale mining, while it has a wealth of dispersed mineral resources in the Eastern Desert, and some in the Western Desert and on the shores of Lake Nasser. "
One small scale model being used elswewhere consists of building cooperatives for artisanal miners. Collectives or cooperatives of miners can be formed to encourage reinvestment in community development, construction of schools, hospitals. If this approach is adopted, it could lead to the employment of millions of Egyptians, while the conventional large scale approach will only employ few thousand people. The triangle between Marsa Alam, Quseir and Qena forms a good site to establish mining cooperatives...
So I am not sure what is happening in Egypt, but it is very misleading to infer small scale is in fact small scale, as the "employment" and environmental degradation is aything but small scale....and it is happening in Egypt
best
the gnome
Now all they need is a mountain of sugar for the hive...
I’m very glad to join to Barrick Gold Corporation as a junior exploration geologist.
Dyaa Awd
Exploration Geologist - Barrick Gold Corporation
Al Buhayrah, Egypt
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dyaa-awd-81b4b5175_im-very-glad-to-join-to-barrick-gold-corporation-activity-6971889551988412416-TQcd?
Clive Johnson, CEO of Canadian gold mining company B2Gold, which produces the majority of its million ounces of gold from the Fekola mine in Mali, told the Cape Town Mining Indaba: “The kind of things we are seeing in Mali right now in artisanal mining to the north of where we are is devastating to the local river and the potential rehabilitation of agricultural areas.
“We call on African governments to choose their partners carefully. Choose the partners that are not going to make short-term promises that they may not keep.”
Johnson was referring to mining companies “from countries which do not have the same regulatory requirements that we have. Sometimes they seem to be able to do things – such as back artisanal miners to do tremendous environmental damage using very unhealthy mining practices.”
Johnson’s complaint is sure to be backed up by Gemfields CEO Sean Gilbertson given the group’s experience at its Montepuez ruby mine in Mozambique, which has been badly affected by illegal mining.
Much of these operations, according to Gilbertson, is being carried out by “illegal syndicates” that bring in “vulnerable and impoverished people from faraway towns in neighbouring provinces and countries” to do the mining.
Gilbertson comments that “any multinational or listed company which allowed people to work in the conditions that are prevalent in artisanal mining would be lambasted for health and safety risks and environmental damage”.
This kind of mining is essentially theft from the mining companies that hold mining rights over the ground being invaded. It is also theft from the host nation in lost taxes, royalties and foreign exchange earnings from the export of the commodities, which are invariably moved out of the county illegally.
https://www.miningmx.com/mining-yearbook-2022/50307-africas-governments-are-powerless-to-control-illegal-mining/
------------------------------------->>>>
Egypt, for all its red tape, avoids the bulk of these artisanal threats to the environment. And as the zama-zama problem grows in poor African nations - Egypt starts to look better and better on a whole variety of levels
Bodes well for Silver and Gold.
Interesting-
Steve......I manage my own portfolio at Killik for a small quarterly charge but still get their daily note. Best performers have been global companies such as BP , SHEL, and BATS which have been great over the past few months. Now moving out of some of the remainder adding to large position in a near gold producer and a nickel producer which has just started up, both ASX listed.
Solar power plant commissioning - Q3 2022 (On-going)
· Capital structure review - Q3 2022
· Underground expansion study - Q3 2022
March 2020 when Covid lock downs started to pinch the Market , there was a selloff of pretty much everything ,called "Short covering" .
Everything dropped thanks to gamblers who were in up to their necks.
Sotolo,
Presumably you've read the article- he's not advocating "Sellers will seek liquidity selling all shares", he's recommending a whole host of stocks...
Ok- so I've now read the article- the title is 100% mis-leading.
I've checked my main pension over the past 12months, it's actively managed one based on global equities- and it's the same value as it was back then (within 1%!)... this is due to being global and not US based, for example, yes the S&P is down as per his figures but he doesn't mention the FTSE 100 is up ~5% over the same period. The article goes on to say the stocks he is picking during this "super bubble collapse" (I ask myself with this title why on g*ds earth hold any stocks, as the title infers this! My take on the article, it's a "use my services for your portfolio and you'll be fine, eg you need to be invested"- well, I'm happy to keep my current provider. However, what I so agree on though, is that "active managed" is better than "passive" and worth the small fee at the moment- but respect each to their own- GLA.
Only the 4th Act? Surely not, we must be in the 999th Act the amount of times I've heard "collapse" since 2008...
We've shown relative strength here in the face of short term gold price weakness and a dividend payout. Well positioned to see £1+ on any return to 1800+
Gnome, as you know I think you are quite right on this as is Mr Grantham.
However the question for us is how will gold do, amidst this, and more important gold miners
Overall PE’s across the market will fall putting pressure on all shares
Sellers will seek liquidity selling all shares
Gold after an initial fall is likely to rise
Which miners will survive the fall (I am assuming Cey with strong balance sheet will)
Will gold then rise fast enough to obviate market falls
And in which country will owners of gold miners will be wiped out as poverty leads to
revolution
Ie we pretty much know gold will be a great safe haven
But will Cey, whatcha and Mr Grantham think?
Jeremy Grantham highlights the eerie parallels between this year’s sharemarket gyrations and the bursting of previous sharemarket super bubbles.
If legendary investor Jeremy Grantham is right, we’re now entering the vicious, and most brutal, phase in the collapse of the “super bubble” in share, bond and house prices.
His warning comes as a deepening sense of gloom is gripping the US sharemarket, which has now fallen 9.2 per cent since the bear market rally peaked in August. It is down 18.5 per cent so far this year.
European sharemarkets have suffered even heftier losses, falling by more than 25 per cent this year. Analysts are warning that the European shares have further to fall, as the region’s energy crisis intensifies.
And the local share market has dropped to the lowest level in seven weeks, as investors worry that synchronised tightening by the world’s major central banks will choke global growth and reduce demand for commodities.
At the same time, growing inflation fears have sparked a savage sell-off in US bond markets, with the yield on benchmark 10-year bonds climbing to 3.35 per cent, while the yield on 30-year bonds has surged to the highest level since 2014.
Yields on risky junk bonds and leveraged loans have pushed sharply higher, as investors worry about the growing risk that debt-laden companies will default on their loan repayments.
The 2022 bear market rally has followed the same template, with the S&P 500 clawing back 58 per cent of its losses from the June low to its intraday peak on August 16.
It is, Grantham argues, “looking eerily similar to these other historic super bubbles”.
But these bear market rallies only allow investors a brief respite, before the fourth and final stage of the super bubble, when fundamentals deteriorate and the market plunges to a new low.
Could be a good time to do cash and gold ...
best
the gnome
"Large gold discoveries will be announced in the next month in Egypt, Hassona revealed."
Shouldn't we be told the facts via an RNS rather than some vague rumour to the press?
Sounds promising but positive pr news from CEY is rare , one day we will have a blockbuster day
Major European stocks stood mostly flat ahead of Friday's session a day following the European Central Bank's decision to increase its key interest rates by the expected 75 basis points in an effort to curb record inflation.
In the United Kingdom, Queen Elizabeth II died at the age of 96, with the coronation of her successor King Charles III scheduled to take place tomorrow.
The DAX and the CAC 40 stood unchanged at 8:09 am CET, while the FTSE 100 gained 0.25%. The euro grew 0.68% against the dollar to sell for 1.00643, while the pound rose 0.69% to $1.15843.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / ND
Happy Friday…
Have a good weekend y’al
*Large gold discoveries will be announced within the next month.”
https://see.news/centamin-aims-to-accelerate-its-gold-exploration-strategy-in-egypt/
United Kingdom's new King Charles, paid tribute to his mother who passed away earlier in the day at the age of 96.
"The death of my beloved mother, Her Majesty the Queen, is a moment of greatest sadness for me and all members of my family," the king said in a statement. The new king is expected to bo known as Charles III.
Meanwhile, more world leaders are paying tribute to the late Queen, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who called her death an "irreparable loss," Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / NP
The presentation in the link was interesting, a lot of it made good sense, but at the end of the day this is a sales pitch. I think he's right about holding more cash in your portfolio than we're used to though.
Equities in Europe traded higher in the premarket on Thursday in anticipation of the reveal of the European Central Bank's (ECB) newest monetary policy decision, to be followed by the institution and its President Christine Lagarde's speeches.
Earlier, the United States Federal Reserve stated in its Beige Book that the economic activity in that country in August remained unchanged on a monthly level, or "on balance."
The DAX advanced by 0.84% at 7:40 am CET. At the same time, the FTSE 100 rose by 0.42%. The CAC 40 went up by 0.86%.
The euro lost 0.08% to the dollar at 7:48 am CET to sell for $0.99973. A minute later, the pound sterling fell by 0.18% against the greenback to change hands for $1.15128.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JR