The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Alas this is why all the posts showing “fair value price is…. if we mine this… and gold price is…. divi should be…. and SP should be….”- never works this way -
Gold was $1713 an ounce on 8th November, 2022 and Centamin rose to 97p handle and pushed higher as the rally arose. Gold is $1972. So the company making 67% more profit is at the same price. The pound is valued higher against USD since then but nothing to justify the anomaly. The question is will gold drop $260 per ounce in the near future.
Ooops, got that wrong- odd though that yet again, and right from the off, CEY falls twice as much as others …
Major European markets traded higher on Tuesday's premarket amid the latest banking sector news. Markets are coming from a Monday that closed higher after Germany showed a better business climate. In addition, indices were boosted by upbeat reports from the banking sector.
The DAX gained 0.39% at 6:58 am CET, while the CAC 40 also added 0.35%, and the FTSE 100 rose 0.40%. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 inched up 0.33% at the same time.
The euro improved by 0.12% against the dollar at 7:04 am CET, selling for $1.08112. In comparison, the pound grew by 0.23% to go for $1.23158 simultaneously.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JG
Can EMRA challenge the cost?
Even if they object to the capitalisation surely the expenditure would just become an operating cost & reduce their profit share accordingly?
What am I missing Cowichan?
The change in mine plan* has necessitated an increase in stripping activity during the year (more than has been experienced in the past) and includes activity from both internal and external parties. As a result, there has been a significant increase in the stripping activity. Based on the calculations performed the amount capitalised to the balance sheet for 2022 is US$141 million (2021: $59m).**
Capitalisation occurs when the strip ratio exceeds the life of mine strip ratio for that stage.
Only the costs related to the excess stripping are capitalised. In line with the accelerated stripping programme (2022-2024) we expect to be above the life of mine strip ratio, resulting in a larger quantum to be capitalised to the balance sheet.
--------------------------------->>
Note : the last Life Of Mine Plan LOM 43-101 for Sukari had an effective date of 30 June, 2015
https://www.centamin.com/media/2317/cey_sukari_43-101-technical-report-231015_final.pdf
The most recent year end presentation states that a new LOM 43-101 is scheduled to be issued the second half of 2023 , but the decision Mr Horgan made to remove a giant pile of material from the open pit was made in 2021 .
That means:
1) the decision to move the giant pile of waste in 2021 was made without an updated plan, or
2) it was made using the old 2015 plan, or
3) an updated plan exists, it just hasn't been given to stakeholders to review
If #1 is true then, bad. If #2 is true then, bad. If #3 is true then, what's in it that the market won't like that it's being withheld so long?
More importantly, the EMRA should have been given an advance opportunity to review the increased waste clearing contract based on a new LOM 43-101. The fact that it was not given that opportunity means the EMRA has every right to question the decision - and audit the decision ( retroactively refuse to allow the excess waste clearing costs to be capitalized i.e. cost recovery ) meaning Centamin shareholders could be on the hook to reimburse those costs** to the EMRA. A very, very expensive outcome for shareholders.
Recent banking crises reinforce the need for a secure, public banking system that puts people not greedy banks first.
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Barrick and Newmont recovering well towards the US close, so hopefully we'll see a rise first thing if gold at least hold overnight- plus US markets up and FTSE futures up at the moment.
The banks are going well as the sector but the Dow overall is hardly surging unless you call 0.4% a surge…
Gold down as Dow surges on Wall Street open!
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/26/stock-futures-are-up-slightly-as-wall-street-looks-to-build-on-winning-week.html
Bank shares surge as Silicon Valley Bank deal eases investor fears - latest updates
Bank shares surged on Wall Street as investor confidence returned after a buyer was found for the collapsed Silicon Valley Bank.
Shares in First Citizens, which has bought the assets and loans of the failed lender, rocketed by 49pc at the opening bell!
Its takeover appears to have allayed concerns about the health of the regional banking sector in the US.
Shares of midsized banks like Keycorp, Zions and First Horizon rose 8pc.
First Republic Bank, which received a $30bn rescue package from 11 of the biggest banks in the country, jumped 23pc.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/first-citizens-said-be-near-deal-silicon-valley-bank-bloomberg-news-2023-03-26/
In Britain, banking stocks across the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 have climbed 1.3pc by comparison?
Ah, but Italy Sotalo, now they how how to live life, fantastic fashion style and culture, fine wine and cuisine that is so affordable, fantastic art galleries, music venues and architecture, the smell of wild flowers in the countryside and the evening "La Passeggiata"– The Evening Stroll in Italy, not to mention the beautiful ladies walking by!
https://margieinitaly.com/2014/08/la-passeggiata-the-evening-stroll-in-italy/
https://www.tripsavvy.com/what-is-la-passeggiata-1547544
So much for things in the UK by comparison!
Back to CEY- good time to trade I think as CEY has dropped roughly twice as much today as FRES, BARRICK, Newmont and co.... bizarre...
UK NHS has been "on it's knees" for the last 30 years, every day I hear "doctors leaving in droves", "nurses leaving in droves" , this has been the same for 30 years- how are there any docs or nurses left if they've been leaving in droves for 30years lol- lot of moaners- the TV docs need to get off TV and stop whining and do some work- it's a service we pay for! I went to a BUPA annual check a few years ago, and told them of my 12hour days, 4 hour commute, occasional weekend work- the doc said it's crazy and I should complain- I said I get paid well and if I moaned I'd be sacked- to which she said- they can't do that- I said they can and I'll only about £50k if I'm successful on unfair dismissal! These docs with their massive, massive pensions need to get into the real, private world- and why is it I can't see a consultant for weeks but if I pay for him privately I can see him next week, (and he's been NHS trained)? Bonkers... RANT OVER!
UK NHS has already sunk!
A Brit was forced to travel to war-torn Ukraine for dental treatment - after he failed to get an appointment with the NHS. Richard Howe, 58, developed an abscess under his tooth last month, which was causing him severe discomfort.
He called his local NHS dentist to book an appointment, but was told he'd have to go private to be seen - at considerable cost.
In the UK if people have a tooth problem, they have zero chance of being seen by an NHS dentist. "But in Ukraine, anyone can walk in off the street and be seen straight away, whatever their nationality - and the country is literally a war zone. It's very backwards!"
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/brit-travelled-war-torn-ukraine-080039753.html
These issues will always be debated- back to CEY- poor today, very poor
Hi Mr Gnome,
Then possibly the FED being too big to fail will get a government bail out!
r1234 absolutely. We need to tolerate and respect each others’ views; in the grate scheme of things in 500 years it will be meaningless history, even in 100, and we shall be dead. So dreadful how people fight so about it. I am writing this in a sweet seafood restaurant in Bari, Italy, talking to the waiter about how left and right in Italy are so intolerant and won’t listen to the other point of view same everywhere, we seem to become so polarised and not just have decent debate.
Like all central banks, the Federal Reserve was designed to make money for the government from its monopoly on issuing currency. The Fed did generate profits, which it sent to the Treasury, every year from 1916 on—until last fall. In a development previously unheard of, the Federal Reserve has suffered operating losses of about $42 billion since September 2022.
That month, the massive interest-rate risk created by the Fed’s asset-liability maturity mismatch began generating cash-operating losses, and the losses now average $7 billion a month. This is because the Fed’s trillions of dollars of long-term investments yield 2% but cost 4.6% to finance. The Fed will soon have negative equity capital, and as operating losses continue to mount, its equity-capital deficit will grow.
In a July 15, 2022, note, the Fed’s Board of Governors discussed the possibility that the system could incur substantial operating losses as it increased interest rates to fight inflation. The Fed tried to play down the importance of the issue, arguing that its “mandate is neither to make profits nor to avoid losses”—a deflection that is disappointingly transparent to anyone familiar with central banking.
The Fed traditionally avoided policies that would expose it to significant losses. In the early years, member banks could borrow from reserve banks only by posting specific collateral. The Federal Reserve Act required loans to be backed by qualifying short-term self-liquidating bills—what today we call commercial paper. Over time, loan collateral requirements evolved, but as they did, the Fed introduced policies to protect it from losses when lending to member banks.
Avoiding credit losses is a requirement Congress added to the Federal Reserve Act in 2010. Section 1101 of the Dodd-Frank Act requires the Federal Reserve Board to establish “policies and procedures . . . designed to ensure that any emergency lending program or facility . . . protect taxpayers from losses.” Federal reserve banks are also mandated to assign “a lendable value to all collateral for a loan executed by a Federal reserve bank . . . in determining whether the loan is secured satisfactorily.”
While the Federal Reserve Act requires the Fed to avoid taking credit related losses that could have an impact on taxpayers, it makes no mention of losses from interest-rate risk exposures. The act’s authors never imagined such losses. Monetary policy was all but assured to generate Fed profits prior to 2008. That changed once the Fed started paying banks interest on their reserve balances and making large open market purchases of long-maturity Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.
Fed losses from its interest-rate-risk exposures—unrecognized taxpayer losses—are now being realized in ways Congress never intended and at magnitudes neither the Congress nor the Fed ever expected.
good luck punters
the gnome
https://fullfact.org/economy/eu-exports-january-2021/
https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/
On the flipside, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which provides independent forecasts to the Treasury, weren’t pessimistic enough about the effect the referendum on GDP growth.
https://fullfact.org/economy/how-accurate-have-brexit-forecasts-been-referendum/
The IMF have never, ever, made a correct prediction for the UK economy.
Europe is in a similar situation to UK. EU may even become worse if their dodgy banks (Deutsch Bank being prime candidate) collapse. Fallout will also affect us, unfortunately.
Europe and UK's woes were exacerbated by giving away far too much money during the Chinese 'flu, (UK gave away more than we could afford, unlike most of EU), then cutting off Russian gas to skyrocket the gas price, while buying gas from U.S. at 6x the US Henry Hub spot price. Some would call it shooting oneself in the foot, I just call it stupidity.
True we are where we are,, unfortunately we are likely to be further down the lavatory as time goes on!
The UK economy is well and truly buggered and that will influence POG!
cuts Centamin to 'hold' - price target 111 pence
Highlighting a 7% upside to the stock.
:)
I was a remainer, but I don't know why people keep harping on about this. We are where we are and as a country we need to stop complaining, pull together and make the best of it.
Life of Mine plan/assett review
28 dec 2021 https://www.globalminingreview.com/exploration-development/28122021/centamin-completes-life-of-asset-review/
8 Feb 2022 https://www.globalminingreview.com/mining/08022022/centamin-surkari-gold-mine-to-transition-to-owner-operator-mining/
31 Aug 2022 https://www.centamin.com/media/2868/cey_disclosures_on_tailings_management_2022_v0.pdf
16 March 2023, a few things that caught my eye ....
Capex guidance is US$225 million, weighted towards H1 (55:45), as the Company continues to identify growth and
optimisation projects at Sukari, including development of a gravity circuit; expansion of the dump leach capacity;
and commencement of the underground expansion. This also reflects inflationary pressures on the contracted
waste-stripping programme specifically from higher fuel prices
• Exploration spend is budgeted at US$30 million, including US$23 million for the pre-development study work on
the Doropo Project....sounds good to me ....
2023 KEY MILESTONES
• June 2023: Doropo Project (Côte d’Ivoire) complete pre-feasibility study
• H2 2023: Sukari Gold Mine (Egypt) update Life of Mine Plan (NI 43-101), including underground expansion, and
• Announcements on the ongoing exploration programmes
I feel reasonably informed. There are a few companies who do a lot worse. Quite a few.
regards
the Gnome