The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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I hope Horgan has shared the benefits of his waste stripping extravaganza with EMRA even if he considers shareholders generally too insignificant to keep informed.
The retail shareholder can do little to change his poor attitude, I did not realise just how big a stick EMRA has the potential to wield. On one side I would like them to use it to force some disclosure/accountability on the other the cost to CEY holders may be prohibitive.
Thanks for the info :)
RazorsEdge ,just depends on the Asians.
They are canny,and love the US trading it lower.
Then buy when it hits its bottom.
But there is no doubt that is where a vast quantity of physical ends up,a culture .
Seems to me a good culture.
In the UK ,buying legal coinage in gold is vat free and
Capital Gains Tax exempt.
Havea pleasent evening you and all.
Currently $1994 at the minute
Gold on a high again, may help the opening in Europe in the morning.
Currently +0.92% 1974.53 — days high $1975.17
Hi Bushy,
Unfortunately things rarely go that simply with Centamin!
Hi Cowichan,
Thank you for your efforts on making us aware of in the absence of some convincing explanation to to the contrary by the company regarding the possible ramifications of the announced change to the existing terms and conditions of the concession agreement that have the potential to put considerable additional costs onto shareholders for the future.
If this is the case then the management haven't explained the full consequences of the changes to the "Life of Mine" plan as clearly or openly as they could have.
I hope others will join me in writing to the company for full explanation.
Looking good for a rerate back to 130. Nice bit of divergence building.
paulmetcalfe,
I agree - but we've been waiting for Egypt to get the ball rolling for years and years
So far the only progress I've seen made as far as new gold production is the gov't owned Shalateen mine pouring it's first ounces a few weeks ago - maybe the preferred way forward is to make a greater share of the production themselves ?
What I've learned being invested in Egypt for well over a decade - talk of reforming the economy to be more global & open market friendly has been just that - talk
I suppose that shareholders have to hope this doesnt happen then.
IF Egypt want other miners to invest and start mining in Egypt then "Killing the goose that is laying the golden eggs" would not be a very good move would it?
Taking smaller percentages from more companies would be better for Egypt than trying to wring everything out of one.
Surley Egypt/Erma want the companies who bid on the parcels of land to start producing gold and profit/ profit share.
Spoonington,
yes , the EMRA can dispute anything and everything, most importantly for Centamin shareholders would be any erroneously made deductions to THEIR share of the profit - so if the capital project (in this case stripping excess waste - over and above the historical mine plan) gets clawed back it could take years of installments to pay back. Where does that pay back $$ come from? The BEST scenario would be that it came from excess free cash flow i.e. dividends - otherwise $$ we don't have, bank debt.
some excerpts from Centamin's full year 2022 results - page 44,45 :
Any variation between payments made during the year (which are based on the Company’s estimates) and the SGM audited financial statements, may result in a balance due and payable to EMRA or advances to be offset against future distributions.
This will be reflected as an amount attributable to the non-controlling interest in SGM on the statement of financial position and statement of changes in equity.
EMRA and PGM benefit from advance distributions of profit share which are made on a weekly or fortnightly basis and proportionately in accordance with the terms of the CA.
Future distributions will consider ongoing cash flows, historical costs that are still to be recovered and any future capital expenditure. All profit share payments will be reconciled against SGM’s audited June financial statements for current and future periods.
Legal title of all operating assets of PGM will pass to EMRA when cost recovery is completed. The right of use of all fixed and movable assets remains with PGM and SGM.
page 56
Included within non-current other creditors and current other creditors and accruals is $7.3m (2021: $9.8m) and $4.9m (2021: $2.4m) respectively in relation to the remaining instalments of a $17.6m settlement agreement signed with EMRA in 2021.
By its nature, elements of the cost recovery mechanism within the Concession Agreement are subject to interpretation and ongoing audits by EMRA. It is possible that future settlement agreements may be agreed with EMRA in relation to historic items.
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Amateur Australian gold digger finds massive nugget https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-65095925
Concerns over the banking sector have led to a move towards safe haven assets and gold has clearly benefited from this. While we see a short-term pullback in prices, we expect these to strengthen over 2H23
https://think.ing.com/articles/safe-haven-buying-boosts-gold-prices
"We don't see rate cuts this year," says a new commentary from giant asset management and finance-product group Blackrock, glossed by headline writers at Bloomberg as meaning "Markets are wrong on US rate-cut bets."
"That's the old playbook," Blackrock goes on, "when central banks would rush to rescue the economy as recession hit. Now they're causing the recession to fight sticky inflation – and that makes rate cuts unlikely, in our view."
https://www.bullionvault.co.uk/gold-news/gold-price-032820232
Pre US open + .36%
Conservative MP Danny Kruger asked Bailey whether all bank deposits should be guaranteed if a bank fails.
So there you have it they want us to trust them with out money but don't see why they should give any guarantee it will be safe!
So much for trusting banks!
The BoE governor said he agrees with US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen that it should not be the norm that all bank deposits are guaranteed.
"I would not support, and I think this is exactly what Janet Yellen has said, the idea that 100% deposit guarantee becomes a norm," he said
On Credit Suisse Bailey said the bank received a ‘critical blow’, when its major shareholder said it would not put more money in adding that the Swiss lender “was experiencing a run”, as depositors lost confidence in its viability going forwards, even though it was in a strong solvency position.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1010368/ftse-100-seen-higher-shop-price-inflation-accelerates-brc-1010368.html
Following the 'shotgun' takeover of Swiss giant Credit Suisse plus the failure of 2 regional US banks this month, the US Treasury declared Friday that the US banking system is "sound and resilient", a view agreed by the world No.1 economy's Financial Stability Oversight Council.
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-price-032720231
Hello all, it's the money they're pouring into the ground at Sukari that's holding the SP back. Q1 AISC is gonna be north of 1500/oz again. There's no way not to spend this cash, it's the right thing to do, but the SP can't really fly until this number comes down.
It’s all about inflation play for miners- when the top and drop stuttered into top, top etc and now hopefully drop, this is reflected in most miner’s SP (reflected in CEY price all to clearly from Jan high). Need some decent inflation drop news - like i’ve said consistently, there is no banking crisis but separate events - this is now being mostly stated in the press too- gold rose a lot on the back of a non- crisis. Had the banking issues not been there, gold would have dropped a lot on probably a 50bps FED last time(bank issues got us 25bps and more dovish tones). Next inflation read in US will be key - a drop that accelerates will be very good
You are dealing with a market, which is known for decades, to be irrational.
Not sure why you are surprised. Just grab the opportunities, or ride the trend
best
the gnome
Alas this is why all the posts showing “fair value price is…. if we mine this… and gold price is…. divi should be…. and SP should be….”- never works this way -
Gold was $1713 an ounce on 8th November, 2022 and Centamin rose to 97p handle and pushed higher as the rally arose. Gold is $1972. So the company making 67% more profit is at the same price. The pound is valued higher against USD since then but nothing to justify the anomaly. The question is will gold drop $260 per ounce in the near future.
Ooops, got that wrong- odd though that yet again, and right from the off, CEY falls twice as much as others …
Major European markets traded higher on Tuesday's premarket amid the latest banking sector news. Markets are coming from a Monday that closed higher after Germany showed a better business climate. In addition, indices were boosted by upbeat reports from the banking sector.
The DAX gained 0.39% at 6:58 am CET, while the CAC 40 also added 0.35%, and the FTSE 100 rose 0.40%. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 inched up 0.33% at the same time.
The euro improved by 0.12% against the dollar at 7:04 am CET, selling for $1.08112. In comparison, the pound grew by 0.23% to go for $1.23158 simultaneously.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JG
Can EMRA challenge the cost?
Even if they object to the capitalisation surely the expenditure would just become an operating cost & reduce their profit share accordingly?
What am I missing Cowichan?
The change in mine plan* has necessitated an increase in stripping activity during the year (more than has been experienced in the past) and includes activity from both internal and external parties. As a result, there has been a significant increase in the stripping activity. Based on the calculations performed the amount capitalised to the balance sheet for 2022 is US$141 million (2021: $59m).**
Capitalisation occurs when the strip ratio exceeds the life of mine strip ratio for that stage.
Only the costs related to the excess stripping are capitalised. In line with the accelerated stripping programme (2022-2024) we expect to be above the life of mine strip ratio, resulting in a larger quantum to be capitalised to the balance sheet.
--------------------------------->>
Note : the last Life Of Mine Plan LOM 43-101 for Sukari had an effective date of 30 June, 2015
https://www.centamin.com/media/2317/cey_sukari_43-101-technical-report-231015_final.pdf
The most recent year end presentation states that a new LOM 43-101 is scheduled to be issued the second half of 2023 , but the decision Mr Horgan made to remove a giant pile of material from the open pit was made in 2021 .
That means:
1) the decision to move the giant pile of waste in 2021 was made without an updated plan, or
2) it was made using the old 2015 plan, or
3) an updated plan exists, it just hasn't been given to stakeholders to review
If #1 is true then, bad. If #2 is true then, bad. If #3 is true then, what's in it that the market won't like that it's being withheld so long?
More importantly, the EMRA should have been given an advance opportunity to review the increased waste clearing contract based on a new LOM 43-101. The fact that it was not given that opportunity means the EMRA has every right to question the decision - and audit the decision ( retroactively refuse to allow the excess waste clearing costs to be capitalized i.e. cost recovery ) meaning Centamin shareholders could be on the hook to reimburse those costs** to the EMRA. A very, very expensive outcome for shareholders.